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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 March 12
Personal opinions today
US retail sales in January were better than expected, and compared with the negative growth in the peak season in December, reaching 0.2%. It is estimated that the US consumer price index for February will have a good effect tonight. The market expects that the consumer price index will also reach 0.2% tonight, which is 0% higher than last month. In addition, the US presidential budget and the US economic forecast are rising, which is equally bullish dollar. It is reported that the Fed still expects to raise interest rates at least once in the second half of the year. These are the factors of the bullish dollar, but why did the dollar not rise last fall, because the dollar's main rival currency, the euro and the pound rose. It has been reported that the British Prime Minister has made a deal in consultations with the EU. The EU is willing to make a backup plan for the Irish border tariff issue and will give the grace period, that boosts the pound, and the euro will rise indirectly, limiting the dollar's rise while the dollar fell.
However, the market is closely watching the two-day discussion and voting on the draft of the new Brexit agreement in the British Parliament. At present, there is a high chance that the draft will be rejected. Although the risk of having to leave the EU at the end of March is reduced, if the British Parliament veto the draft tomorrow, the next day will discuss the decision to leave the European referendum. A variety of fundamental factors risk that European currencies will face different levels of risk, and European currencies face downside risks. As risk aversion heats up, gold and the yen will likely be chased again. And whether the Swiss franc can become a safe haven for European currencies, will be cited this Wednesday and Thursday. It is recommended that this week's trading must pay attention to risk management, capital and position control.
The British parliament’s vote of Brexit is imminent, and pessimism will inevitably affect the euro, leaving the euro at a downside risk. At present, the UK may avoid the risk of hard Brexit and stabilize the Euro. Technically, the euro has to successfully break through the resistance of 1.1265 and still need more good news. If the euro rebounds 61.8% and 73.6%, respectively, 1.1265 and 1.1280 stop, the trend is still judged as a downward trend. The impact of the Brexit risk, mainly leading the direction of the euro, it is recommended to pay more attention to relevant news.
The British Parliament discussed the new Brexit agreement tonight and began voting on Wednesday night. The current news means that British parliamentarians still oppose the new revision proposal proposed by the British Prime Minister and the European Union. They are vetoed at any time during the voting in the British Parliament, and the pound continues to face the downside risk. If the Brexit agreement was rejected this week, the UK could not extend the Brexit deadline, nor did it make a second referendum, which affected the pound's decline. Technically, 1.3020 can be used as a long and short watershed. The development of the matter is good or bad, and it is decided that the pound will go up and down the 1.3020 against the US dollar. Keep in mind that the current situation in Brexit is grim, the volatility of the pound is widening, and risks must be paid attention to.
US retail sales rose, and it is expected that the important US inflation data tonight, the consumer price index will also rise, short-term negative Swiss francs. Technically, the USD/CHF has the opportunity to test the 1.0145 resistance after testing 1.0125, and the reference support is 1.0085 or 1.0065. It is recommended to pay attention to the Brexit discussion and voting results, paying attention in the Swiss franc.
US retail sales rose, and it is expected that the important US inflation data tonight, the consumer price index will also rise, short-term negative yen. In addition, a US presidential spokesman said that the Sino-US trade deal will continue to be discussed and that the first meeting of the US dollar will be signed. The US Dow and the Japan Nikkei Index rebounded respectively, boosting the dollar against the yen. Of course, the current risk of Brexit exists in the UK. If the market is nervous again, the USD/JPY will likely enter the 110 level again.
A US presidential spokesman said that the Sino-US trade deal will continue to be discussed and that the first meeting of the US dollar will be signed. The news helped to promote the prospects of China-Australia trade and raised the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar rebounded to 0.7080, which is 38.2% of the recent rebound of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, while the recent 0.7095 is the recent high point, which is worthy of attention. Of course, the US consumer price index tonight is quite important. If the price index rises sharply, it will probably be negative for the Australian dollar.
The Sino-US trade deal will continue to be discussed and the agreement will be signed after their meeting. The news boosted the Australian dollar and indirectly increased the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the New Zealand dollar rebounded to 0.6840, which is 61.8% of the recent rebound. The rebound wave is 0.6060 as the recent high point, which is worthy of attention. Of course, the US consumer price index tonight is quite important. If the price index rises sharply, it will probably be a negative for the New Zealand dollar. Technically, 0.6820 and 0.6805 are reference support respectively.
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, representing the rise of the Canadian dollar. The reason for the rebound in crude oil futures prices. If the performance of the US consumer price index improves tonight, and the price index rises sharply, representing the increase in consumer power and crude oil demand, crude oil prices will have an opportunity to rise. It is expected that the US dollar will drive against the Canadian dollar. Technically refer to 1.3365 or 1.3345 support and 1.3420 or 1.3440 resistance.
This week the British Parliament is preparing to vote on the Brexit deal, and the Brexit deal may be rejected. But there was also good news during the period to increase the volatility of the EURGBP. It is recommended to pay close attention to the news of Brexit, to dominate the trend in the pound, affecting the euro against the pound. When investing in the euro against the pound, you must pay attention to large fluctuations.
There is good news in Brexit deal, and the euro is rising against the Swiss franc. However, the market is watching the results of discussions and voting in the UK Brexit deal in the next two days. It will change at any time. It is recommended to pay close attention to the news of the Brexit and the performance of the Euro, and affect the fluctuation of the EURCHF. Please pay attention.
The US consumer price index coming tonight is quite important. If the price index rises sharply, it means that US inflation is heating up. The Fed may also change its view of suspending interest rate hikes and become an excuse that short gold. In addition, the Brexit deadline is imminent, risk sentiment is always on the rise, and the reasons for risk aversion can also push up gold. If the above risks cannot be resolved in the short term, it is estimated that the price of gold will probably push up to $1310. Current support is available at $1,288 and $1,286.
US crude oil futures:
US retail sales growth was better than expected, and the market expects the US consumer price index to grow also tonight, bullish on crude oil. Technically, focus on the resistance of 57.55 and 57.80, and the support level can be noticed within the $55 range. If the $55 falls, it refers to last week's low of $54.49.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
The US retail sales data improved, the development of Sino-US trade deal has been a success, and the news boosted the Dow's sharp rebound. However, the risk of Brexit is approaching and investment sentiment is nervous, and it is estimated negative impact on the stock market again. Technically, the US Dow is in the downward development cycle and has the opportunity to test low support. In the short term, pay attention to important resistances, which are 25885 and 25960 respectively.
3680 / 3520 support
3925 / 4050 resistance
The US retail sale data improved, the market has confidence to forecast the inflation data coming tonight, the bitcoin stand back a bit and limited the price rise. Keep in mind, if USD strengthen Bitcoin weakness. If the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin. Because the market still has no confidence and interest to trade cryptocurrencies very much . US3925 and US4050, it seems the resistance.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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