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ATFX Market Update - 2019.03.15

Mar 15 2019, 09:58 AM (+06) | ATFX

Personal opinions today

The British parliament voted to postpone the deadline for the Brexit, avoiding the deadline for the Brexit deadline on March 29, and leaving the EU without agreement. Nevertheless, the UK must explain to the EU as soon as possible the reapostponement push back the Brexit deadline. The European Parliament will be held next Thursday. The parliament will discuss the extension of the Brexit deadline and seek the support of all EU countries members agree before extending the deadline and time. It is expected that this week, if there is no news to boost the pound or the euro, it is expected that the pound and the euro will stop rising up further, limited pound and euro respectively.

Market risk sentiment cooled down, global stock market good, gold, silver, and the yen fell. Global economic risks of,  commodity and related currencies have been supported. 

The Bank of Japan announced the interest rates decision this morning, expecting interest rates remain unchanged and monetary policy to remain loose. However, in the afternoon, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a press conference, and the market watched the outlook on Japan's economy and monetary policy. In the evening, the Eurozone announced the February CPl (Consumer Price Index). In the evening, Canada and the United States respectively released manufacturing data, which is worth noting. In addition, US industrial production in February and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in March are worthy of attention. The performance may affect in the US dollar index, indirectly affecting major currencies against the US dollar and gold prices.

Today's suggestion:

1.1320/1.1335 resistance
1.1280/1.1265 support
The United Kingdom avoids leaving the EU when it is not agreed, and reduces the risk of falling euros and supports the euro. In the afternoon, the Eurozone announced the February CPI. The market has already expected the CPI monthly rate to rise and the annual rate remains unchanged. It is estimated that the euro will be supported before the announcement, but after the announcement, look at the US economic data tonight, and the dollar will lead the euro. Technically, the euro has a downward opportunity, and it is recommended to focus on the first target of 1.1280 or 1.1265 support.

1.3305/1.3335 resistance
1.3240/1.3210 support
Extend the Brexit deadline to avoid the risk of a hard break from the end of the month, and the pound continued to postpone the deadline. Next week, the British Prime Minister will again submit a new Brexit agreement, and also apply to the EU to extend the Brexit deadline. It is expected that investors will have psychological uncertainty and negative impact on the pound. Technically, refer to 1.3210 support in the short term. If it falls below the support, it will probably test 1.3150 or 1.3080. The US economic data as important tonight, it is worthy of attention and lead the pound going.

1.0050/1.0075 resistance
1.0025/0.9990 support
The euro is generally good, and supports the Swiss franc. Technically, the USDCHF has the opportunity to test the support of 1.0025. The Swiss franc is expected to remain strong on the move, but it must be noted that the US has released data tonight. If the data shows better performance that before, the dollar will rise and the USDCHF fall. In addition, it is recommended to keep update the Brexit news, pay attention to the fluctuation of the pound and the euro, it will indirectly affect the Swiss franc.

112.05/112.35 resistance
110.85/110.70 support
Push back the deadline for the Brexi, reducing the market risk. The Sino-US trade agreement was progressing. China and US seems close the deal. All good news supported the Dow and the Nikkei up, leading the dollar to rise against the yen. Today, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, the most important afternoon, the Bank of Japan governor’s speech. Monetary policy and economic outlook focus on the performance of the yen. If any negative news affects, it may affect the US Dow and Japan's Nikkei index fall, the dollar against the yen has a chance to fall as well.

0.7080/0.7095 resistance
0.7050/0.7035 support
Inflation in the United States was moderate, and the US dollar was postponed, with a bullish Australian dollar. The Sino-US trade deal seems going well, it is only finalized after confirming the meeting time and signing the agreement. The news helped promote Australia's trade and economic development and supported the Australian dollar. However, the Australian dollar failed to test 0.7090 again, and the Australian dollar may have a deep adjustment against the US dollar. If the US data is good tonight and the dollar regains its strength, it will probably be negative for the Australian dollar. For the first target support, please refer to 0.7050 and 0.7035.

0.6860/0.6875 resistance
0.6810/0.6790 support
At present, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar trend and rhythm are similar, the Australian dollar rises to test the resistance, while the New Zealand dollar rises also, testing the resistance. If the New Zealand dollar rebounded to 0.6860 and failed. The market may not be able to go upstream. If the US data is good tonight, the dollar will regain its strength and it will likely be a negative for the New Zealand dollar. Technically, reference can be made to 0.6810 and 0.6790 support.

1.3345/1.3365 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
The OPEC and Russia announced that they will maintain production cuts until April, and crude oil prices will continue to rise, indirectly benefiting the Canadian dollar. Although the US dollar is moving better, the Canadian dollar is adjusting. Technically, the adjustment wave can remain below 1.3365, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is still expected to continue to fall. Of course, the price of crude oil will rise, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar may test 1.3290 or 1.3275.

0.8600/0.8635 resistance
0.8510/0.8475 support
The British Parliament vetoed the Brexit without agreement and extended the Brexit deadline, bringing the euro to stabilize against the pound. It is recommended to pay close attention to the news of Brexit and to dominate the trend in the pound, which will affect the sharp fluctuation of the euro against the pound. When investing in the euro against the pound, please pay attention to large fluctuations. Technically, it is temporarily estimated that the euro has a chance to test resistance at 0.8600 or 0.8635 against the pound.

1.1380/1.1395 resistance
1.1335/1.1310 support
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided, and next week the British Prime Minister will submit a new plan and the EU will extend the Brexit deadline. The EURCHF is currently at a normal level and narrow range. Technically, refer to 1.1380 or 1.1395 resistance and 1.1335 or 1.1310 support.

1297/1310 resistance
1290/1287 support
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided, and next week the British Prime Minister will submit a new plan and the EU will extend the Brexit deadline. Now that the UK has avoided the risk of hard Brexit, gold prices are expected to continue to fall. Of course, the US Dow's downside risk and the central bank's loose monetary policy may stimulate gold prices to rise, and test the important resistance of 1297 and 1310. At present, if the gold price trend is technically adjusted, the support level can refer to 1290 and 1287.

US crude oil futures:
58.75/59.20 resistance
58.05/57.55 support
The US API and EIA crude oil inventories have decreased significantly, and the reduction of production plans and economic risk factors in Saudi Arabia and Russia have become the cause of rising crude oil prices. The above news will help support the rise in oil prices. Technically, please pay attention to the support of 58.05 and 57.55. If break the support, look forward to the important support level of the test, $55.

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25760/25885 resistance
25280/25105 support
The US economic data has grown, Sino-US trade consultations have progressed well, the risk of hard Brexit in the UK has decreased, and investment sentiment has been improved, which is good for stock market performance. Technically, the US Dow rebounded at a low level. However, there is still no breakthrough in the important resistance 25885 in the short term. Technically, there is still a chance to downward. It is recommended to pay attention in the discussion and voting results of the British Parliament tomorrow morning. If the delay in the postponement of the Brexit period is not resolved, the risk sentiment will increase, which may affect the performance of the Dow.

3780  / 3680 support
3925 / 4050 resistance 
The US inflation data shown moderated, the dollar fell a bit that pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin seems supported between US3780 and US3680. However the market still has not covered the confidence and interest to trade cryptocurrencies very much . Probably, US3925 and 4050 will limited the price.

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China

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