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ATFX Market Update - 2019.03.26

Mar 26 2019, 09:35 AM (+06) | ATFX
Personal opinions today
Although the EU extended the Brexit deadline, the condition is that the House of Commons of the British Parliament must passed the Brexit agreement. If the Brexit agreement is vetoed again, the UK must officially leave the EU without an agreement on April 12, two weeks later than the original March 29. At present, the British Prime Minister has tried to convince members of Congress to accept the agreement, but she expressed there is still not enough support. She will not submit the agreement again this week. It means that the Brexit agreement may not be accepted before the deadline. The next step is that the UK will face a "hard Brexit" and the GBP may continue to be downward.
 
Earlier, the Fed’s monetary policy indicated that it would stop raising interest rates during the year, and it will stop shrinking the balance sheet in September and may cut interest rates next year. Recently, the US Treasury bond yield rate is upside down, and the short-term three-month bond yield rate is higher than the 10-year bond yield. Market experience, this represents a bearish market, and the US economy will enter a recession one year later. However, Fed officials said that the Fed’s monetary policy plan stopped raising interest rates, the US economy maintained a recovery, and the chances of a recession were expected to be low, calling for no worries in the market. Today, we can further pay attention to the Fed officials attending the Asian Investment Forum and asking the Fed officials to express their views on monetary policy.
 
At present, market risk is still rising, investors can pay attention to the development of the Brexit and market risk sentiment this week. It is estimated that the money will flow to gold and the yen, will likely rise further. European and commodity currencies are likely to fall.
 
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD 
1.1330/1.1345 resistance
1.1285/1.1270 support
In the afternoon, the euro zone Germany announced the consumer confidence index, and France announced the fourth quarter GDP. In the evening, the US announced new housing starts and construction permits. Later, the US announced the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. US data is expected to slow down, the US dollar is weak, and there is a chance to bullish the euro. However, the British Parliament may vote again on the Brexit agreement. If it is affected by bad news, the euro may limit the increase and is more likely to extend the downward. Short-term focus on the resistance of 1.1330 and 1.1345, support level, please pay attention to 1.1285 and 1.1270.
 
GBPUSD
1.3235/1.3255 resistance
1.3170/1.3155 support
The EU extended the Brexit deadline, but the British Parliament must pass the Brexit agreement. Otherwise, the agreement will be rejected, and the UK will leave the EU on April 12. Of course, the UK can apply for an extension to June 30 again to temporarily avoid the risk of a hard Brexit. However, the problem remains unresolved, which means that the exchange rate of the pound is at risk of falling. Technically, the pound is still affected by the resistance of 1.3290. If the resistance is maintained, it will be bearish.
 
USDCHF 
0.9945/0.9965 resistance
0.9905/0.9885 support
The Brexit issue mainly affects European currencies, but the Swiss franc is now a safe haven for European currencies. The Swiss franc is stronger than other European currencies. Technically, the USDCHF is in the expected target of 0.9985. If it can break through this support level, it is expected to continue its trend. Short-term reference support 0.9905 and 0.9885. But breaking the resistance of 0.9965, the trend reversed.
 
USDJPY
109.85/109.70 support
110.30/110.50 resistance
Affected by a number of factors, the dollar fell, USDJPY fell. The Fed said that it would stop raising interest rates this year, the risk of Brexit increased, the risk aversion increased, and the global stock market fell, which indirectly bearish the USDJPY. Technically, if the USDJPY does not break the short-term resistance at 110.75, it is expected that the USDJPY may approach 109.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7125/0.7140 resistance
0.7055/0.7040 support
The price of industrial metals has risen, which is positive for the Australian dollar. However, the market is more concerned about the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate meeting next week, and it is estimated that it may be negative for the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar is referenced at 0.7125 and 0.7140 resistance.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6925/0.6940 resistance
0.6880/0.6860 support
The New Zealand dollar can still maintain 0.6860 support. Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will held interest rates decision. The monetary policy may tend to be conservative and have the opportunity to influence the decline of the New Zealand dollar. If it falls below the 0.6860 support, it must be noted to further expand the decline.
 
USDCAD
1.3420/1.3440 resistance
1.3370/1.3350 support
Crude oil prices rebounded, reached $59, crude oil prices rising, and the Canadian dollar is the same trending. Technically, the USDCAD closed at 1.3430 resistance, the adjustment wave can test 1.3370 or 1.3350 support. If crude oil prices start to fall, it is estimated that the USDCAD may test the 1.3420 and 1.3440 resistance levels.
 
XAUUSD 
1323/1325 resistance
1318/1316 support
The market is worried about the US economic recession and reaching to the global bond yields. In addition, the UK's Brexit issue has not yet been finalized, there is risk, and the price of gold has risen. Technically, the resistance of 1323 and 1325 in short term. The risk increased, the gold prices will hit higher resistance. On the contrary, the gold price fell.
 
US crude oil futures:
59.45/60.05 resistance
58.65/58.05 support
The market expects that the amount of crude oil inventories announced tomorrow morning may continue to decrease, and crude oil prices will rise, with the target pointing to $60. However, the risk of Brexit increased, Sino-US trade negotiationscan not make further deal, and Russian crude oil supply did not decide to further reduce production. These are bearish crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are still likely to be tested at $58, with short-term reference resistance at $59.45 and $60.05, with reference to support for 58.65 and 58.05.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25695/25835 resistance
25460/25325 support
The uncertainty of the British Parliament's Brexit and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, risk sentiment affects the performance of the Dow. The US economic slowdown is also expected to limit the rebound of the Dow. It is recommended to keep an eye on the Dow to continue to adjust. Technically, the Dow may test the support at 25460 and 25325. If further breakthroughs are made, there is still a possibility of adjustment. The next level of support is 24950 or 24350.
 
BTCUSD:
4050 /  4125 resistance 
3780  / 3680 support
The Fed announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year , the dollar value fell then pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. The target will be set at US4050 and US 4125, until any breakthrough.
 
Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
 
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