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ATFX Market Update - 2019.03.28

Mar 28 2019, 09:32 AM (+06) | ATFX
Personal opinions today
Fed officials said that the short-term yields higher than the long-term bond yields, only reflecting the Fed’s monetary policy plan to stop raising interest rates. There is no signal to show the US economy recession, but inflation has slowed down from last year. Fed officials clarified relevant market changes and called for no worries in the market. Yesterday, although the two bond yields curve continued the happen and expanded, the US dollar index rose, approaching 97. The price of gold was lowered, and the low was seen at $1,308. The market is concerned that the United States will release the final data of the actual GDP, actual personal consumption, expenditure and core PCE price index in the fourth quarter last year. The market estimates that the economic slowdown may be limited. In the face of the risk of Brexit, the European currency has fallen. It is expected that the US economy will slow down at a limited room to go further upward.
In the European market, the Eurozone announced the March economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index. In the US market, the market focus is on the fourth quarter US GDP in the last year. Actual personal consumption expenditure and price index can be used as a reference. In between, the Germany announced the consumer price index for March, the market expects inflation prices to rise to 0.6%, and the annual rate is expected to increase, the data results will help calculate the relevant data released in the eurozone tomorrow. If the German data grows, there is a chance to positive the euro and other European currencies.
 
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD 
1.1230/1.1215 support
1.1290/1.1305 resistance
The Eurozone announced the March economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index, and Germany announced the March consumer price index. During the period, the US GDP in the fourth quarter last year, the market pays attention to relevant data. Technical the support and resistance at 1.1230 and 1.1305 respectively. It is expected that the European data performance well, with a bullish euro.
 
GBPUSD
1.3220/1.3235 resistance
1.3155/1.3140 support
Originally scheduled for March 29, hard Brexit. Due to the British Parliament voted aside, waiting for tomorrow and next week, the British Parliament will continue to discuss and vote. In the latest situation, the British Parliament intend to force the British Prime Minister to step down. The British Prime Minister stated that she was willing to resign as prime minister after the completion of the Brexit agreement. In the face of Brexit and political uncertainty, the pound is downward. Technically, the resistance of the pound remain at 1.3220 and 1.3235. The support is 1.3155 and 1.3140. The next support is 1.3095.
 
USDCHF 
0.9955/0.9975 resistance
0.9905/0.9885 support
The Swiss franc has temporarily become a safe haven for European currencies, and the Swiss franc is stronger than other European currencies. Technically, the USDCHF is expected to resist 0.9975. If the resistance breaks through 0.9975, the dollar may rise against the Swiss franc. In addition, the reference support is 0.9905 or 0.9885.
 
USDJPY
110.05/109.90 support
110.55/110.75 resistance
Japan’s Nikkei index fell, indirectly affecting the dollar’s decline against the yen. Japan’s purchase of foreign bonds has increased substantially, while foreign stocks have been bought, and Japanese stocks and Japanese bonds have decreased. In addition, the market expects to announce the Japanese retail sales tomorrow as higher than last month and last year, which may boost the Japanese consumer price index and improve the unemployment rate expectations. Today, the US announced the gross domestic product and related income and price indices in last quarter. It is expected that the US data will improve. The USD/JPY is expected to test 110.55 and 110.75 in the short term. Technically, if the USD/JPY can maintain 109.90 support, it is estimated that the trend is still expected to rise.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7095/0.7110 resistance
0.7055/0.7040 support
The dovish speech of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Australian dollar against the US dollar was lowered following the New Zealand dollar fell. At present, it is worth noting that there has been no further progress in Sino-US trade consultations. The slowdown in the Australian economy will affect the trend of the Australian dollar. The market is concerned about the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision next week, and the RBA comments may be consistent with the dovish speech, which is negative for the Australian dollar. In the short-term technical, the Australian dollar can refer to the resistance of 0.7095 and 0.7110. The short-term support targets are 0.7055 and 0.7040 respectively.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6775/0.6760 support
0.6810/0.6825 resistance
After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand published the dovish remarks, the New Zealand dollar quickly fell by a hundred points yesterday. At present, the New Zealand dollar still has not seen a decline, and believes that the market is waiting for the result of US GDP data. Technically, the NZD decline has already reflected some market psychological factors, and the support level can refer to 0.6775 and 0.6760. Resistance levels can be referenced to 0.6810 and 0.6825.
 
USDCAD
1.3420/1.3440 resistance
1.3375/1.3360 support
Crude oil prices fell, negative the Canadian dollar, the Canadian dollar reached 1.34. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it is estimated that the USDCAD can be test the 1.3420 and 1.3440 resistance levels. Tonight, the United States released the fourth quarter GDP, and the market is waiting for the number. It could be affected the crude oil demand expectations and the Fed monetary policy, then affected the CAD.
 
XAUUSD 
1306/1303 support
1314/1316 resistance
The US government’s short term and long term bond yields curves are out of balance, and the market is worried about the US economic recession. In addition, the Brexit issue has not yet been finalized, and there is a risk that the price of gold has risen earlier. The market is waiting for the important US data releases. If the final value of US GDP unexpectedly increases, it will positive the US dollar and bearish gold. On the contrary, the dollar is falling and the gold is rising. Technically, the important support price for gold is $1,203. If there is no breakthrough, the gold price may have a rebound.
 
US crude oil futures:
59.65/60.05 resistance
58.65/58.05 support
Yesterday, the US API and ElA crude oil inventories rose respectively, the crude oil price fell slightly to below 60 US dollars. Other factors, the risk of Brexit is still going on , the Sino-US trade negotiations no breakthrough, the market is worried about the global economic slowdown, crude oil demand is falling, these factors are negative crude oil prices, crude oil prices maybe test 58 US dollars. Technically, the reference resistance is $60.05, but it is possible to lower it to 59.65. In short term suggests, the references support 58.65 and 58.05 or may test 57 or 56 USD as well if any worse case happen.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25835/25905 resistance
25430/25350 support
Following the release of the US trade account and the US current account yesterday. The other important data, the fourth quarter GDP final is coming. Which is the market, investors and the Fed to forecast monetary policy. That why before the results announcement, limited the rebound. Now, it could be test the support. The technical support can refer to 25430 and 25350.
 
BTCUSD:
4050 /  4125 resistance 
3880  / 3780 support
The Fed announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year. The market expected the US economy slowdown. the dollar real value fell then may be pushed up the bitcoin value and price. The bitcoin price may be keep the support between US3880 and US3780 and the resistance US4050 and US 4125, until any breakthrough.
 
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Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
 
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