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ATFX Market Update - 2019.04.01

Apr 1 2019, 11:24 AM (+06) | ATFX
Personal opinions today
 
British Prime Minister said that she will submit a draft revision of the Brexit agreement to the British Parliament on Tuesday again, and he hopes that Congress will support her proposal for a Brexit agreement and implement the orderly Brexit before the deadline. If Congress passes the draft, the Brexit deadline is expected to be extended to May 22, otherwise the UK may have to leave Europe in advance without a agreement on April 12, UK time. At that time, all issues come up and expected that the problem will drag down the UK domestic economy step by step. Assuming most of the UK’s assets and funds will flow to other European regions, leading to a possible recession in the UK economy. The Brexit discussion and voting will become a trend of the pound, and it is more likely to increase the fluctuation of the pound exchange rate.
In addition, the market is waiting for the US  ADP employment change and Friday's the US non-farm payrolls. In the short-term the market expected, the number of non-farm payrolls has rebounded from last month, the unemployment rate has remained at 3.8%, and average wages have continued to grow, bullish dollar. On Wednesday, we will observe changes in ADP data, and assess the number of non-farm payrolls. Of course, if the number of non-farm payrolls still below the number of 180,000, reflecting that the US economic is slowing down, and the economic recession is expected, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates, which is negative for the US dollar. Other currencies will have an opportunity to rise against the dollar and gold prices.
 
[Important data and events today]:
 1 16:00 Eurozone March Manufacturing PMl
 2 16:30 UK March manufacturing PMl
 3 17:00 Eurozone February unemployment rate and Eurozone March CPI annual rate initial value
 4 20:30 US 2 retail sales monthly rate
 5 22:00 US March lSM manufacturing PMl
 6  Tomorrow, 03:10 Bank of Canada governor gave a speech
 
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD 
1.1245/1.1260 resistance
1.1200/1.1185 support
The Brexit issue still plagues European economic confidence, and the euro remains downside risk. The market expects the US economy to continue to grow and job market growth to normal levels, and the dollar is expected to remain strong. Technically, the short-term adjustment wave is 1.1200 and 1.1185, or it is possible to test the lower position. The resistance level is between 1.1245 and 1.1260. Of course, if the good news in Brexit, or the euro zone data performance very well, it is expected that the euro will take advantage of the opportunity, but it is expected to be subject to 1.1260 resistance, which is difficult to break through.
 
GBPUSD
1.3080/1.3100 resistance
1.3005/1.2985 support
The British Parliament will continue to discuss and vote on leaving the EU to stay in the issue, re-election or referendum, affecting the trend of the pound. In addition, the British Prime Minister said that he will submit the draft of the Brexit again on Tuesday. If the successful withdrawal of the Brexit deadline to May 22 or later, there are still unknowns. If successful, the pound is expected to have a chance to move towards the 1.32 level, challenging 1.33. Otherwise, the pound has a chance to test the 1.29 level.
 
USDCHF 
0.9975/0.9995 resistance
0.9925/0.9905 support
The Swiss franc has temporarily become a good assets for European currencies, and the Swiss franc is stronger than other European currencies. Only the dollar is strong, and the Swiss franc has limited any further rise. Technically, the USDCHF is expected to resist 0.9975. If it breaks through the resistance of 0.9975, the dollar's rise against the Swiss franc is expected to extend to 1.0025 and 1.0055. The reference support is 0.9925 or 0.9905.
 
USDJPY
111.25/111.40 resistance
110.85/110.70 support
Benefiting from the US Dow's uptrend, Japan's Nikkei index opened higher today, indirectly supporting the rise of USD/JPY. Technically, the USD/JPY support level pushed up to 110.85 and 110.70. If the USD/JPY is keeping strong, the initial resistance target is based on the resistance of 111.25 and 111.40. It is recommended to pay close attention to the dynamics of the US Dow and Japan's Nikkei to help observe the trend of the USDJPY in case of a reversal.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7125/0.7140 resistance
0.7090/0.7075 support
The market expects progress in Sino-US trade deals, waiting for high-level officials meeting and make a deal with the trade agreement. The news support for the Australian dollar. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make a interest rates decision tomorrow, and the market expects the central bank to publish the dovish remarks that may have been issued by the NZ Bank of New Zealand, which will limit the increase of the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay close attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate statement tomorrow, whether the content unfavorable the AUD, that will bearish the Australian dollar.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6840/0.6855 resistance
0.6805/0.6790 support
After the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank published the dovish remarks, the New Zealand dollar continued to weaken. In addition, the dollar is strong, suppressing the New Zealand dollar. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make an interest rates decision tomorrow, and the Australian dollar will indirectly affect the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the NZD support can refer to 0.6765 and 0.6750. Resistance levels can be referenced to 0.6805 and 0.6820.
 
USDCAD
1.3370/1.3395 resistance
1.3330/1.3305 support
Crude oil producers continue to maintain production cuts, and crude oil prices have risen, indirectly supporting the Canadian dollar. In addition, Canada's GDP growth last Friday was higher than market expectations, boosting the Canadian dollar. Tonight, Canada announced the manufacturing PMl, which will help boost the Canadian dollar if it beats expectations. On the contrary, the Canadian dollar has a chance to fall. Technically, 1.3330 and 1.3305 are the support, and 1.3370 and 1.3395 are the resistance. The trend of crude oil prices will affect the Canadian dollar indirectly.
 
XAUUSD 
1298/1300 resistance
1287/1285 support
The Brexit agreement proposed by the British Prime Minister was once again but rejected, and market risk once stimulated gold to rise. US GDP is still better than market expectations, and Fed officials are optimistic about US economic growth. The market is watching the job data report released by the US this week. Technically, the gold prices remains below the resistance of $1,303. If the long-term adjustment is made, the price of gold can refer to the support level of $1280.55 and $1275.15. The US job data and the Brexit, and evaluate the market risk and deciding the trend of gold price. Please pay attention to the risk of the Brexit.
 
US crude oil futures:
60.85/61.05 resistance
59.65/59.05 support
US economic growth remains strong, and the market is watching the performance of the manufacturing PMI index, which is about to be announced by major countries. At present, China's manufacturing PMI index is better than expected, which is also the reason for boosting crude oil prices. In addition, Sino-US trade deals are expected to make progress, and the market is more worried about the global economic slowdown and cooling, and the demand for crude oil has increased, which is good for crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices may be tested at $58, but it is important to note whether global manufacturing performance is in line with market expectations. Technically, short-term reference resistance is $61.05, and $59.65 is supported.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26135/26305 resistance
25985/25850 support
China's manufacturing PMI is rising, and the market is waiting to see relevant data released today in Europe and the United States. In addition, the monthly retail sales rate in the United States is also watching, and the market is expected to continue to grow. Investors and the Fed predict that monetary policy remains optimistic, reducing the risk of recession this year and boosting the investment climate. In addition, the market expects progress in Sino-US trade negotiations and also supports the rise of the stock market. Short-term technical support can refer to 25985 and 25850, and test resistance targets 26135 and 26305.
 
BTCUSD:
4100 / 4195 resistance
3960 / 3850 support
The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose and seems approach to 4100 and 4195 resistance. But please pay attention the reversal risk. Since the market is waiting three US job data. 
 
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
 
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