Personal opinions today
China's first-quarter GDP report will be announced on Wednesday this week, which is the global market focus and affected the markets. If the Chinese economy continues to suffer from a trade war between China and the United States, the slowdown in economic growth will affect the global investment outlook and sentiment. The market is waiting for the UK unemployment rate and jobless claims data for March on Tuesday and eurozone and UK CPI inflation data for March on Wednesday. The market expectations for better jobs and inflation data in Europe this week are expected to lead to a stronger euro ahead of the results. If the global economic situation and investment climate improve, the Sino-US trade talks that near the end, which is expected to boost the investment climate. Global stock markets and crude oil prices are expected to rise, but gold prices may face a downward trend.
[Important data and events to watch]
20:30 New York Fed manufacturing index for April
20:30 Fed Evans attended the event
01:00 the next day The Fed Evans speech
On Friday, the euro had tested a one-week high of $1.1320, and technical moves were positive. Technically, if the euro stays above the support level of 1.1250, positive for euro Eurozone inflation forecasts rose this week, which is likely to help lift the single currency on the back of positive data expectations. If the UK job and inflation data are also positive, the euro could test resistance to $1.1386 or $1.1400. Conversely, the euro tested 1.1250 support against the dollar.
The UK improved as the risk of a hard Brexit, positive for GBP. Technically, the GBPUSD reference support level rose from 1.2980 to 1.3065 and 1.3050, with upside resistance at 1.3140 and 1.3165. The market is waiting for the UK's employment and inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday. If the results are bad, negative for GBPUSD, may test below $1.3065.
U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, the dollar strengthened and the Swiss franc fell, USDCHF hitting the resistance. Technically, the dollar against the Swiss franc to maintain reference resistance of 1.0045 and 1.0060. If the euro rises, the Swiss franc would benefit indirectly, with reference support expected to be 1.0005 and 0.9980 respectively.
The Dow and Nikkei rebounded on better-than-expected U.S. economic data and good news from Sino-US trade talks. In addition, the risk of a hard Brexit cooled, money flowed into the dollar to bet against the yen, and the dollar rose against the yen. The dollar could break further against the yen if U.S. economic data is keeping strong and Sino-US trade talks are finalized. Short-term technical resistance level refers to 112.30. Conversely, the reference support bit is 111.65 or 111.35.
Good news from the Sino-US trade talks is expected to boost the Australian dollar. But before RBA’s minutes tomorrow morning, limited the trend of the AUDUSD. Technically, the AUDUSD held to support at 0.7135 and still had a chance to test resistance at 0.7190 or 0.7205.
Good news from the Sino-US trade talks is expected to boost the New Zealand dollar. The dollar has held on to gains after rebounding from a near one-month low of 0.6715. The most important thing is to recover the situation behind the AUDUSD. The dollar could test 0.6800 resistance or 0.6825 if the Australian dollar is lifted by tomorrow's release of minutes, which is expected to benefit the NZDUSD indirectly. Short-term reference support levels are 0.6745 and 0.6725.
Crude oil prices fell, negative for the Canadian dollar. But trade talks between China and the United States have made progress again, changing the investment climate, with the dollar falling and the Canadian dollar rising. U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar by crude oil prices and sometimes the U.S. dollar trend against the Canadian dollar, it is recommended to keep an eye on. Technically, refer to 1.3400 and 1.3425 for resistance and 1.3305 and 1.3285 for support.
Gold prices continued to fall from their highs on the good progress in trade talks between China and the United States, as well as the U.K. delayed the deadline for departure from the European Union, as safe-haven funds were already rushing out of the gold market. In addition, the U.S. economic data is still good, the global stock index rose, gold prices continue to downward. Technically, the gold price the first target support of 1285 and 1281. On the contrary, the basic factors reversed, gold prices rebounded, the reference resistance target of 1292 and 1296 respectively.
U.S. crude futures US30
Crude prices fell below $64 from last week on news that OPEC and other members of OPEC may change to increase production. Technically, crude oil prices could adjust to $63.2 or $62.80. OPEC and other members of OPEC now plan to increase production if they intend to make comments at the June meeting, crude oil prices have a chance to test the 62.80 support or below and the downward trend.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Sino-US trade talks successes, the market investment climate turns positive, the Dow rose and breaks through 26,345 resistance. Further, test 26495 high at the beginning of April. But China's first-quarter GDP report showed on Wednesday, which is expected to slow down, it has a chance to negative the stock market. The Dow’s trend may refer to 26085 or 26015 support.
5050 / 5200 resistance
4850 / 4725 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price strengthened. The market is waiting for the China GDP in the first quarter. If at the end the figure is better than 6.3% expectations, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be tested US4725.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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