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ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.14

May 14 2019, 09:21 AM (BDT) | ATFX

Personal opinions today
A trade war between China and the us has resumed, with China imposing tariffs on us imports and raising some of them yesterday, following a 25 per cent tariff increase imposed on Chinese imports on Friday. The dow Jones industrial average fell last night, while Chinese and global markets fell. Money flowed into gold and the yen, and some into the euro, as worries mounted.

There is no doubt that the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States continues to trouble the market, and the investment sentiment declines. Asia-pacific currencies, excluding the yen, fell broadly. If things don't improve, this trend will continue for some time. If the stock market continues to fall, gold prices and the yen will generally continue to bullish.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:00 German final monthly CPI rate for April
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims for April
17:00 Eurozone industrial output rate for march
17:00 German and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for May
18:00 U.S. NFIB small business sentiment index for April
20:30 U.S. import price index for April
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks for the week

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 
1.1260/1.1280 resistance
1.1215/1.1195 support
As a trade war escalates between China and the United States, the two countries are raising and requisitioning extra tariffs for each other. If Eurozone economic data does not disappoint markets, the euro has a chance to test the 1.13 level. Technically, the euro/dollar daily chart reference resistance of 1.1260 and reference support level of 1.1195. If European economic data disappoint markets and China and US relations do not improve, money could flow into the euro, potentially boosting the euro and the Swiss franc.

GBPUSD 
1.3020/1.3040 resistance
1.2925/1.2900 support
The Brexit unresolved, affecting investment confidence, with the GBPUSD remaining at or below 1.30, having been as low as 1.2942. But if the euro rises in the short term, the GBPUSD is expected to follow. Technically, the GBPUSD remains at $1.3040, which is expected to limited gains. If negative sentiment continues to UK economic and political prospects, the GBPUSD could fall below $1.2900.

AUDUSD 
0.6975/0.6990 resistance
0.6925/0.6910 support
A trade war between China and the us escalates, affecting the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is likely to continue to fall as trade relations between the U.S. and China remain worsting. The trend of the New Zealand dollar will follow the trend of the Australian dollar, with the Australian dollar at 0.6910 and the New Zealand dollar at 0.6545. If China and US trade relations improve, the trend of AUDUSD and NZDUSD is likely to reverse.

USDJPY 
110.05/110.30 resistance
109.15/108.90 support
Last year, the two countries imposed extra tariffs on the other side. The requisitioned tariff range and tax are higher than last year. The dollar fell in line with the Nikkei against the yen as money flowed back into global markets and the carry trade was cut. Without any news to improve the market mood and boost stocks, the dollar will struggle to rebound significantly against the yen and may test the 108 level.

USDCAD 
1.3495/1.3535 resistance
1.3435/1.3405 support
A trade war between China and the United States escalated, with resource commodities and crude oil futures falling, hurting the Canadian dollar. Technical trend, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar to continue to fluctuate around 1.3475. If their trade negotiations and relations have not changed, the expected decline in crude oil demand. Crude oil prices fell, hurting the Canadian dollar.

U.S. crude futures USOIL 
60.85/60.05 support
62.05/62.85 resistance
Despite the rising price of crude oil due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the trade negotiation failure. The two countries raised the requisitioned additional tariffs,  slowdown in global productivity and an uncertain economic outlook. Now that the talks have failed, oil futures could fall further. Technically, the key support level is $60.85, and a breakout test could be below $60.05 to $58.

XAUUSD 
1302/1305 resistance
1296/1293 support
Tensions between the U.S. and China, an escalating trade war and turmoil in global stock markets, money is flowing into gold. Now relations have failed to thaw and the price of gold has soared. Gold has a shot at $1,305 or more. Gold prices could test support levels if tensions between the two countries are expected to ease. It is recommended to pay special attention to the fluctuations of the U.S. Dow and Nikkei indexes, lead the market mood and sentiment, and lead the trend of gold prices.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25760/26005 resistance
25185/25015 support
The Dow could fall sharply after talks between the U.S. and China collapsed, the U.S. President imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports and the investment climate soured. Yesterday China also began imposing tariffs and additional tariffs on US import goods. The market investment sentiment is tense, the situation is not clear, the stock market has the room to fall.
 
BTCUSD:
8150 / 8550 resistance
7750 / 7600 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin pricebroke $7500, forecast to $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If negative, the Bitcoin will keep uptrend.
 
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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