Personal opinions today
The US jobless claims held steady at 210,000, a sign of an expanding labor market. But other U.S. economic data shown slow down, bearish the dollar, the Dow has fallen and money has flowed into the yen and gold. Finally, the rise in the yen and gold prices eased after the Dow Jones index covered losses after the U.S. President said he would hold talks with China's trade ministry as soon as possible.
The British prime minister has decided to step down as soon as today as she wants to solve the Brexit deal. If UK retail sales data beat expectations today, it could be positive for the pound, but not bullish. We have wait and see the U.S. durable goods orders for April, with the data available as a revised estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP next week. The data could boost stocks and support the dollar if very well. Conversely, bearish the Dow and USD.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
16:30 UK retail sales rate adjusted for April
18:00 UK CBI retail sales difference for May
20:30 U.S. durable goods orders monthly rate for April
U.S. jobless claims remained low market expected yesterday, but other U.S. economic data below expectations, bearish USD and the euro rebounding from its lows. This analysis expected yesterday, technical reference resistance at 1.1180 and 1.1200, with support at 1.1150 and 1.1135. If the trend continues, bullish the euro to test the 1.1200 level.
UK prime minister May has announced she will resign as soon as today, after finding a next P.M. Brexit progress is not going well, which has been affecting the decline of the pound. If the prime minister is replaced, it is expected to bring new sentiment, hopes to boost the economy and pound. Today's U.K. data for reference did not expect a boost the pound. But the establishment of the prime minister's resignation and a new PM replace, it could boost the pound. Technically, the reference resistance 1.2720, if the price did not break through, the trend continues to decline. Such 1.2605 and 1.2570 support.
U.S. economic data disappointed, the dollar fell, indirectly bullish Australian dollar. Trade between China and the United States has not calmed down, and market expectations have slowed down the Australian economy and limited the rise of the Australian dollar to 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD trend. The initial target support level is 0.6865. If AUDUSD break through the support, the downside target of 0.6835 and 0.6805. Conversely, rise, 0.6920 breakthroughs, the uptrend is expected to continue. The New Zealand dollar has the same reason following AUDUSD rebound.
Us economic data fell below expectations, and the Dow fell, indirectly affecting the USDJPY. Japanese inflation data improved, bullish JPY shortly and hit 109.50. Most USDJPY trend with the stock market. If U.S. durable goods orders in line with expectations today. The mood for a trade war between China and the United States may not improve, and the resumption of consultations and talks between China and the United States led to a rise in the stock market and a rise in the USDJPY. Conversely, the dollar fell against the yen.
Crude oil lost $60 to $58, sending the Canadian dollar lower. Technical trend, the USDCAD is testing 1.35, affected by external factors, next week's Canadian interest rate decision, the Canadian dollar fell. If crude oil prices continue to fall, the U.S. dollar has reached its target of $1.3475 against the Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices continue to fall, the USDCAD may break $1.3505.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
Crude prices have failed to rise with higher crude inventories at API and ElA. Besides, there are concerns that Russia and other non-OPEC members may oppose a production cut, leading to the possibility of an oversupply of crude oil, which is terrible for oil prices. On the technical adjustment of crude oil price, refer to the support $60.15 to break through, and continue to see the support of $57.40 and $56.45 below. The reference resistance is 59.65 and 60.05.
The Dow fell after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and no signs of an easing in trade talks. Moreover, the Fed has no interest rate hikes, bullish gold prices. In general, it is recommended to keep an eye on the news related to trade talks or the performance of Dow Jones to catch up the trend of gold price. Positive news or the Dow rises, gold prices are expected to fall. Conversely, gold prices could rebound. Technically, the 1276 and 1273 support. Important resistance 1288, next 1292.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Trade talks between China and the United States has not subsided, and there is no timetable. The Dow fell after the U.S. trade department opened trade talks with Europe and Japan. U.S. economy slowing, the Dow has downside risks. The Dow has a chance to deepen its losses if tensions between the U.S. and China return and bad news emerges from trade talks in Europe and Japan. Current recommendations focus on resistance at 25705 and 25855. Lower support bit targets 25415 and 25355.
8150 / 8550 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
Trade tension continues, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, Fed no intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price back and breakthrough $7500, next target could $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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