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ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.11

Jun 11 2019, 02:02 PM (BDT) | ATFX

Personal opinions today:

U.S. and Mexico agreement risk easing, risk sentiment cooled, the dollar to rise. Gold prices fell, European currencies and commodity currencies adjusted. But fears of a global economic slowdown were widely, with crude oil prices falling more than 1% and US crude oil prices closing below $54. The market is focused on US API stocks tomorrow, which will have an impact on crude oil prices.

UK manufacturing and industrial output fell yesterday, its GDP contracted in the three months to April, and today's widely expected rise unemployment rate and jobless claims in May, weighed against GBPUSD. It also focused on the Eurozone investor sentiment index in June and the U.S. PPI for May. If the U.S. PPI falls in May, the dollar fall. European currencies, commodity currencies and gold prices could benefit, indirectly bullish. In addition, the tension between China and the United States may once again lead to a drop in investment sentiment. Keep wait and see any negative news will affect global stock markets and boost gold prices.

 

[Important financial data and events]

16:30 UK unemployment and jobless claims in May

16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for June

20:30 US PPI monthly rate in May

24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook

The next day at 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories

 

Today suggestion :

 

EURUSD 

1.1320/1.1340 resistance

1.1290/1.1270 support

The European central bank released the central bank would consider cutting interest rates if the economy slowdown, limit the euro uptrend. Today, the market focus was on the Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index in June, as well as the UK unemployment and jobless claims figures in May. Markets are expecting the data to be negative for the euro, which is believed to be holding back gains ahead of the release. In addition, the U.S. monthly PPI rate for May. If U.S. PPI data for May is in line with market expectations of a fall, the euro will continue to adjust, with short-term support at 1.1290 and 1.1270 key support levels. Technically, the euro is at an important resistance level of $1.1340. If there is no break in resistance, remain concerned about the downward trend of the EURUSD.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2705/1.2730 resistance

1.2670/1.2645 support

UK manufacturing and industrial output fell and GDP slowed in April yesterday. Expectations of higher unemployment and jobless claims in May weighed against GBPUSD. In addition, one of the nominees for Britain's next prime minister, Johnson, is a strong favourite. His call for a hard brexit without a deal could stir investor sentiment against sterling. Current estimates, bearish trend and limit the rise in GBPUSD. Technically, the first GBPUSD support level is 1.2670, and the key support level is 1.2645. Short-term resistance at 1.2705 and key resistance at 1.2730. The EUR is strong against GBP, which is expected to remain bullish EURGBP to testing 0.90.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6970/0.6985 resistance

0.6945/0.6930 support

After the reserve bank of Australia cut interest rates, the AUDUSD rise was limited to 0.70 resistance. The trade war between China and the United States has hampered expectations of a slowdown in China's economy and Australia's resource exports, bearish the Australian dollar. If future us economic data shows weakness again and the US dollar falls, the AUDUSD has the opportunity to rise. But estimated AUDUSD into adjustment time in short term trading. Technically, focus on 0.6970 and 0.6985 resistance. At present, the AUDUSD adjustment, the reference support 0.6945 and 0.6930.

 

USDJPY 

108.70/108.85 resistance

108.00/107.80 support

The Dow and Nikkei rose as the fed cut interest rate expectations and the U.S. and Mexico deal initially eased risks. The dollar traded at 108.55 yen, its first high against 108.71 resistance. However, the trade war between China and the United States has led to renewed disputes between the two countries. If the Dow falls in the United States, the dollar may try 108.00 or 107.80 support levels against the yen, depending on the depth of the fall. Technically, USDJPY may hit a barrier before 109 resistance, careful reversal. Keep an eye on how the U.S. Dow and Nikkei affect the dollar-yen trend.

 

USDCAD 

1.3240/1.3225 support

1.3345/1.3365 resistance

Fed officials said the rate cut, to boost economic confidence, crude oil futures prices reversed, once rose to the level of 54 dollars, indirectly to bullish Canadian dollars. But the U.S. dollar stalled at 1.3250 against the Canadian dollar as crude oil prices stopped further go up. The U.S. API and EIA crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow. It is recommended to keep an eye on the crude oil price trend. If crude oil price continues to rise to $55 - $56, bullish the Canadian dollar.

 

Us crude futures

55.35/55.85 resistance

52.75/51.95 support

Fed officials cut interest rates, lifted economic and investment sentiment, stabilized oil prices and boosted oil prices. The U.S. API and EIA crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow. It is recommended to pay attention to the volume results and note the large increase in inventories. In general, the US President is happy to accept a fall in the price of oil, and if he expresses his opinion, it may also affect the price drop. Technically, refer to the 55.85 resistance and 51.95 support ranges.

 

XAUUSD 

1332/1334 resistance

1326/1324 support

Fed officials have cut interest rates, and weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data have boosted gold prices. But the interest rate cut, after the positive stock market, again lifted the Dow, led the Dow rebound, gold price adjustment. A decline in the Dow could push gold prices higher as the trade war between China and the U.S. continues to heat up and the outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain. Watch for significant resistance at $1336 and $1340. Short-term support at $1326 and $1324.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26185/26255 resistance

25855/25735 support

The Dow future rose as the federal reserve cut interest rates and the U.S. and Mexico agreement showed signs of easing, raising the sentiment for investment. Positive comments from the Fed, though, could boost a rebound in U.S. stocks. However, the continued trade war between China and the United States has affected the economic outlook, and corporate profits are expected to decline, which is bearish for the stock market finally. It is recommended to note a reversal with current reference resistance at 26185 and 26255 and short-term support at 25855 and 25735.

 

BTCUSD:

8200 / 8450 resistance

7700 / 7450 support

Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed fund rate will cut, probably increasingthe bitcoin demand. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend. 

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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