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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 June 27
Personal opinions today:
U.S. durable goods orders keep negatively, fell 1.3 percent in May. Which was below market expectations of a 0.1 percent decline, but an improvement from the previous month's reading of a 2.1 percent decline. Although, the data performance still shows that durable goods demand continues to decline, but there is an improvement, bullish dollar. Markets were watching today for the Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index, the final reading on consumer confidence in Jun and the preliminary reading on the German consumer price index. If the European economic and consumer data for June and the German CPI inflation data are expected to fall, European currencies will remain bearish until the European data results.
Today, the U.S. released its final estimate of first-quarter real GDP, which the market expects to remain at 3.1 percent. In addition, in the week to June 22, the initial jobless claims, the core PCE price index for the first quarter, the real personal consumption expenditure for the first quarter, and the existing home contract sales index for May. These economic data are noteworthy and affect the performance of the dollar.
[Important financial data and events]
17:00 EU economic and industrial sentiment index for June
17:00 EU consumer confidence index for June
20:00 German CPI monthly preliminary data for June
20:30 US initial jobless claims
20:30 US the real GDP in the first quarter
20:30 US core PCE price index for the first quarter
20:30 US the real personal consumption expenditure
22:00 US existing home sales index in May
The eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index for June, the final consumer confidence index and the German June CPI preliminary monthly data will be watched carefully today. The German June CPI results will forecasts for eurozone June CPI tomorrow. The euro is weak and has a chance to fall as expectations for German June CPI weakness from the previous month weigh on eurozone forecasts. Technically, the euro is expected to adjust to the previous resistance level of 1.1345, which is the reference for the current support level. If EURUSD fall further, you can note from June 18
high and low range of the golden ratio adjustment ratio. 38.2% was adjusted to 1.1325 support level. 50% is adjusted to 1.1295.
There is a good chance that Johnson will be chosen in the third round of the U.K. conservative party leadership election today. If Johnson is elected, Britain will face the huge risk of a hard brexit without a deal, and the British pound may fall sharply in the future. Technically, GBPUSD is weak. 1.2700 and 1.2720 are expected short-term resistance. If the adjustment range of the golden ratio is extended, the target is 1.2610 and 1.2580. If GBP fall against the EUR widens, the EURGBP could try 0.8970, further testing 0.9000. First focus on the performance of eurozone economic data. If the euro falls, the EURGBP could test 0.8920 or 0.8885 support.
The Fed chairman has comments by the US President that he has cut interest rates sharply. The market is looking forward to the G20 summit tomorrow, when Chinese and US leaders will meet and talks. Last night, the US President said publicly that this meeting with Chinese leaders has the opportunity to make a good deal, bullish AUD. Technically, watch the AUDUSD hit a high of 0.7020 in early June. If break, look at 0.7050 and 0.7070. Normally, the NZDUSD follows the AUDUSD. Take note when investing in the NZD.
The Fed chairman comments, narrowing the expected rate cut. According to CME Report, Fed will cut 0.25 % interest rate for 75%, 25 % chance of cut 0.5% interest rate. Spreads narrowed between USD and JPY, pushing the dollar higher against the yen. In addition, the market is looking forward to the G20 summit, US and Chinese leaders meeting, has a chance to restart trade talks and boost the stock market. The dollar broke through 107.70 against the yen in the short term, with further resistance of 108.30 likely to be tested later.
U.S. crude oil prices due to a sharp reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, trade talks between China and the United States are expected to resume. Crude oil prices rose above $58 to just under $60, bullish Canadian dollars. At present, the market is waiting to see whether the trade talks and the leader meeting can improve relations, boost the economy and reduce tariffs. If the trade talks go well, further boosting the price of crude oil and boost Canadian economy, bullish Canadian dollar. Conversely, if trade talks stall and crude oil prices fall, it could bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar, with resistance levels at 1.3180 and 1.3235.
Us crude oil futures USOIL
U.S. API crude stocks change fell sharply, with crude oil futures trading at $59. The trade consultation is expected to solve trade tensions, with the leaders meet tomorrow at the G20 summit. That, combined with the Fed's plan to consider a rate cut in the second half of the year, could boost oil prices. Technically, $59.70 was a one-month high. If there is no any good news or negative message from the trade talks, crude oil futures could fall with an initial target of $58.20 or $57.35.
The Fed chairman spoke the fed would not cut interest rates by half a percentage point in July. Powell said the rate cut was not as high as expected by the market, his comments cool down the gold prices to fell. Current adjustment by Fibonacci calculation, technical reference level, 1416 and 1420 resistance, 1402 and 1398 support.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The market is watching the reopening of China and trade talks. Any good news is expected to lift the investment climate. Technically, the Dow is currently focused on 26652 and 26759 resistance. If the trade talks fail, the Dow could break through 26395, with a further move to 26000.
13000 / 13350 resistance
11850 / 11550 support
The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, bullish the bitcoin. However, we must keep watching the China and U.S. trade talk and G20 leader summit tomorrow. Now, we suggest following the gold price’s trend to catch up the market sentiment. If the gold price fall deeply, the bitcoin could bearish.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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