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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 6
Personal opinions today:
The US Markit services PMI fell in October, followed by an increase in the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the dollar rebounded, the Euro and British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen all fell. As in this analysis, precious metal, gold and silver price are expected to extend the decline. The price of gold fell to a two-week low of $1,480. The price of silver followed the price of gold fell. Some of that was due to outflows from gold as U.S. Dow futures gained a week and risk aversion cooled. U.S. API crude inventories rose to 4.3 million barrels last week as prices adjusted from high levels.
European markets today focus on Eurozone retail sales. Market forecasts fell last month, and the market began to react last night, bearish Euro. In U.S. trading, the dollar was expected to rebound after comments from Fed governor Charles Evans and Fed governor William indicated that the Fed interest rate direction.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
Wintertime begins in the United States
07:50 Bank of Japan minutes **
16:55 Germany services sector PMI final ***
17:00 Eurozone services PMI final **
18:00 Eurozone Retail sales ***
21:00 Fed Evans speech **
22:30 Fed Williams speech **
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **
1.1095/1. 1105 resistance
Eurozone PPI was flat, the U.S. trade account for September, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose in October, and the dollar rose. Further breakout after euro test 1.1085 support. The market expected Eurozone retail sales in September weakened, Fed Evans and Fed Williams speech tonight. These factors are bearish for the Euro. Without a break in resistance, the Euro could test support of $1.1045 or $1.1035.
British pound to dollar
The market is waiting for the British parliament to debate the issue of Brexit, and for parliamentary elections in December. Without any good news, the pound against the dollar is difficult to test resistance. Besides, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose in October, and the dollar rebounded. Technically, the pound against the dollar adjustment wave from 1.2970. It touched a 61.8 percent correction last night and is expected to test support at either 1.2840 or 1.2820 during the session. U.S. trading hours, Fed Evans and Fed Williams speech. If the hawkish remarks, the dollar may rise, GBPUSD to test support level.
Australian dollar to US dollar
RBA issued a positive outlook, did not express the interest rate cut again expected. Is expected to cooperate with international trade differences to further resolve, more Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar is likely to rise against the U.S. dollar. A technical breakthrough of 0.6935 resistance is likely to strengthen the AUD. Short-term support bit 0.6860 support, can be used as a reference.
Dollar to Japanese yen
The U.S. trade account for September and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October rose, dow futures rose, the nikkei also rose, and the dollar rose against the yen in line with stocks. The yen rose today after the bank of Japan released minutes of its monetary policy meeting, saying the central bank was "dovish" in its approach to monetary policy but did not consider expanding quantitative easing. Technically, the dollar/yen is expected to test the recent 109.00 resistance, but the above factors failed to test 109.35 resistance. As noted yesterday, the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy record. In the short term 109 level resistance, pay attention to adjust the risk. The dollar could breakthrough 108.60 support against the yen if the Dow and Nikkei futures are adjusted lower.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices stronger, bullish Canadian dollar. Dovish comments from the Bank of Canada capped the rise in the Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices are expected to rise in U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories, indirectly bearish for the Canadian dollar, the USDCAD could see the resistance of 1.3180 or 1.3190. Technically, around the time of next week's international crude oil and energy report, the USDCAD is likely to test either 1.3125 or 1.3115 support.
United States crude oil futures
The market digested weak U.S. economic and job data, with U.S. crude oil futures offering an opportunity to rise on the back of a rise in the U.S. services PMI and a drop in crude inventories in October. Also, improved international trade relations and OPEC consideration of an extension of its production cut in December boosted U.S. crude futures prices. Technically, the rise from $53 after the expansion, now note the adjustment. 56.25 and 56.05 as short-term support bits.
The rise in gold prices came to a halt after the September trade account and the October services sector PMI expanded with comments expected tonight from Fed governor speech. If they were keeping the outlook for rate cuts in place. The gold prices are expected to fall. Gold broke through $1,498 support last night, accelerating its slide to a two-week low. Besides, the biggest reason is the improvement of international trade between the United States and the United Kingdom, the cooling of Brexit, the outflow of money from the gold market, and the adjustment of gold price. If Dow futures continue to rise, gold price adjustment continues to widen. Technically, if gold does not break through $1494 resistance, we can see $1476 support. For breakout support, look down at $1,470 or $1,468
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The improvement of international trade relations will help US companies to develop and grow. Ratings agencies raised their Q4 U.S. economic forecasts, boosting investment sentiment. Technically, Dow futures break through 27220 resistance and are looking up Dow futures 27560 or 27640 resistance. If Dow futures adjust, watch out for 27315 and 27230 support. If the breakthrough support 27230 support level, believe the trend began to reverse, 27,000 points.
9780/ 9950 resistance
9200 / 9050 support
The FOMC mentions the Fed rate may not further cut further, it will bearish for crypto currencies. Dow and global stock upward with US and China trade deal would signed next week. Technically, it could bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support. Technically, the bitcoin price could test US 9780 or US9950 resistance. If failure break through the resistance, the price could downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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