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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 11
Personal opinions today:
The Michigan consumer confidence rose to 95.7 in November from a previous reading of 95.5. U.S. Dow futures and the dollar rose on optimism in international trade, while European currencies fell. Risk aversion cooled, the Japanese yen, gold and silver prices continued to fall. Crude oil recovered from its low after adjusting to try the $57 level. But over the weekend, the investment climate was again tense as the U.S. President renewed his tough talk and rhetoric on international trade deals. If the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials do not clarify and mediate, risk aversion is expected to rise again. The Japanese yen, gold and silver, may rebound, and crude oil prices fall.
Stock markets are closed today for holidays in the United States, France and Canada. In European trading, focus on the UK data results, the UK September trade account and September GDP preliminary. U.S. trading hours, the federal reserve made a speech, worth watching.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
Markets in the United States, France and Canada are closed for the holidays
07:50 Japan September trade account *
17:30 U.K. industrial and manufacturing output in September **
17:30 U.K. September trade account ***
17:30 U.K. September GDP **
21:15 Fed chairman speaks
1.1035/1. 1045 resistance
The European central bank said it expected Eurozone monetary policy to remain in place for an extended period of low-interest rates, while investors remained bearish about the Euro and saw downside. The Euro fell further against the dollar last week after the Michigan consumer confidence index rose in November as well.
British pound to dollar
Bank of England governor Carney made bearish comments on the British pound. The pound fell against the dollar last week, as the Michigan consumer confidence index strengthened in November. Technically, the pound against the dollar to adjust wave break 1.2840. Last week this analysis expected sterling to try 1.2780 or 1.2770 support levels. If the UK economic data is weak today, there is a chance that the pound will break through the 1.2770 support and try 1.2740 support. Short-term reference resistance of 1.2815 or 1.2825.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The Australian dollar fell against the dollar after the US President comments on international trade deals that bearish Australian exports. As estimated by this analysis last week, there is an opportunity to explore the short-term support level of 0.6865. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates on Wednesday in anticipation of the central bank's comments affecting investment sentiment, the New Zealand dollar fell, indirectly affecting the Australian dollar. At present, if the view does not improve, the AUDUSD has the opportunity to explore 0.6820 support. NZDUSD has the chance to examine 0.6290 support.
The US President harmful speech on the international trade deal comments affect investment sentiment, the Dow futures and the stock market declines in Asia, the USDJPY fell. Technically, the USDJPY may test 109.45 resistance failed, the dollar against the yen is following the investment climate adjustment. If Dow and Nikkei futures continue to fall, the USDJPY could test 108 level.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Bank of Canada said the dovish comments, the Canadian dollar investment sentiment cooled. The US President's talk on international trade deals affected investment sentiment and indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD broke 1.3190 resistance. Expect good news for crude oil demand during the international crude oil and energy report, which will indirectly lead to a rise in the Canadian dollar, which is likely to see support for the USDCAD.
United States crude oil futures
The US President's talk on trade deals affected investment sentiment and indirectly bearish for crude oil prices. Last week this analysis mentioned adjustment risk, technical note adjustment, $56.05 or $55.75 as short-term support level. Expect to see good news for International crude oil and energy demand report, and see headwinds in crude oil prices.
Dow futures fell after closing at a record high as negative comments on US President. Gold could extend gains as risk aversion rises on expectations of negative comments. Technically, if gold price breaks through key resistance at $1478, it could explore further at $1485. Most important to see the stock market sentiment. If Dow futures extended losses, gold prices rose further.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
A US and China trade deal could be signed by next month, but Dow futures fell as the US President comments affected investment sentiment. If the trade deal continues to be tense, the decline may begin and widely in European markets. Technically, Dow futures are expected to test 27420 or 27315 support.
9180/ 9280 resistance
8850/ 8750 support
Technically, the crypto currency demand decreased, the trend bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support. Without any good news for crypto currency, the bitcoin price could keep downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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