ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 13
Personal opinions today:
U.K. economic and political are uncertain as the Brexit continues to be delayed. The UK unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in October, and jobless claims rose significantly, which was bearish for the British pound. On the Euro, the President of the European central bank said keeping the Euro lower for a long time was also bearish for the Euro. The investment mood has lifted Dow futures, the dollar index rose, and gold and silver prices fell in anticipation of an international trade deal that could be close and a U.S. report this evening on October CPI and core CPl growth. But the US President comments about the trade deal have affected the investment climate. Dow futures and the dollar reversed course last night. The U.S. will release API crude oil inventory data; crude oil prices have been tested at $57.50, the market is waiting, oil price correction.
In European trading today, the final German CPI rate in October and Eurozone industrial output in September were watched, which affected the Euro. In British pound, it is worth keeping track of the UK October CPI and Retail price index results. The Euro, Swiss franc and British pound could fall if inflation consumption figures in the Eurozone and the UK fall short of expectations. The Euro, Swiss franc and British pound are expected to rise if the Numbers are flat or rising. Most notable today is the U.S. October CPI and core CPl. Relevant data often bring market fluctuation. And for the future monetary policy, interest rate futures expectations, affect the dollar, indirectly affect the currency market, precious metal market and the stock market. Recommend keep watching Dow future movement.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
09:00 New Zealand federal reserve interest rate decision ***
15:00 Germany CPI final **
17:30 UK October CPI and Retail price index ***
18:00 Eurozone industrial output *
21:30 U.S. CPI and core CPl***
24:00 Fed chairman Powell gives testimony
The next day 01:00 EIA monthly short-term energy outlook **
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks last week ***
1.1020/1. 1030 resistance
The ECB monetary policy maintains the long-term lower interest rate; the economic outlook does not see growth, limits the Euro confidence, the Euro against the dollar trend maintains the downward. This afternoon, the final monthly CPI rate of Germany in October and the industrial output of the Eurozone in September, whether the economic atmosphere in the Eurozone can be improved, can refer to these data results. Without growth in German CPl, Eurozone industrial output fell in September, and the Euro is believed to maintain its downward trend against the dollar. After the European data, keep an eye on the U.S. CPI and core CPl for October. Keep in mind, The Eurozone data today that will report the Eurozone GDP and employment change tomorrow.
British pound to dollar
The uncertain outlook for the British economy, coupled with the planned Brexit vote at the end of October, led to weak employment data and a surge in jobless claims, which bearish British pound. The CPI and retail price index, released today, is expected to be weak. According to this analysis yesterday, assuming the weak UK job data will affect the October CPI and retail price data. If UK CPI and retail price data are weak and affect expectations of UK October retail sales tomorrow, the pound could continue to fall.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The AUDUSD has been falling recently, falling below its low in late October. The US President tough stance on international trade deals has bearish Australia's export growth prospects. The Australian dollar fell on concerns that the RBA may cut interest rates next week, undermining investment confidence. If the international trade deal does not improve, the AUDUSD has the opportunity to maintain the test of 0.6820 support. NZDUSD as the opportunity to explore 0.6290 support.
Dollar to Japanese yen
The US President is taking a tough line on international trade deals and believes the comments will continue to affect investment sentiment. If the Dow futures and stock market declines in Asia, USDJPY may fall. Technically, the USDJPY break 109.40 for several consecutive days, and it is possible to test 108.70 to 108.60. If Dow and Nikkei futures extend their losses, the USDJPY could test 108 again.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
The Bank of Canada said it was dovish and was expected to be planning to cut interest rates. Last night, the US President took a hard line on international trade agreements, and his comments affected global trade confidence and investment sentiment, which indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. The upcoming international crude oil and energy report and the U.S. crude oil inventory report are expected to be good news for crude oil demand and crude oil inventory decline, which will lead to higher crude oil prices, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. Otherwise continue to be bearish on the Canadian dollar.
United States crude oil futures
The US President has taken a tough line on international trade agreements, criticizing the possibility of increased import tariffs if a trade deal is not reached, which would affect investment sentiment and bearish crude oil prices. The upcoming international crude oil and energy report and the U.S. crude oil inventory report are limiting the rise in crude oil prices. The initial target could be $56.05 or $55.75 if oil prices correction.
The risk aversion cooled, the Dow futures hit a new high, indirectly bearish gold price, as low as $1,448. Technically, if gold doesn't break through resistance at $1,468, it's still on the downside. The US President comments, increased pressure on international trade negotiations is expected to affect investor sentiment. If Dow futures fall, gold could rebound and have a chance to break through $1,468 resistance.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The United States and China are finalizing the first phase of a trade deal next month, but the President's comments could hurt investor sentiment and added risk aversion. Expected last night, the U.S. President comments in trade deal, affected investment sentiment, Dow futures fell, may begin to reflect in European markets. Technically, Dow futures will have a chance to test 27550 or 27420 support, which could extend losses.
9180/ 9280 resistance
8500/ 8350 support
Technically, the cryptocurrency demand decreased, the trend bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8350 support, look at US7885 support. Without any good news for crypto currency, the bitcoin price could keep downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.