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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 15
Personal opinions today:
Fed Chairman Powell, appearing at the hearing, said the Fed was not considering cutting interest rates again, supporting the dollar but limiting gains in U.S. Dow futures. Investors continued to focus on the U.S. government, giving pressure on trade policy and risk aversion continued. Earlier, the US President said he would consider imposing additional tariffs if trade deals failed to meet US interests, threatening other countries with trade deals that would benefit the US economy. Investment risk aversion increased, bullish gold prices. The Canadian dollar fell less on the positive side of the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal. In other news, the market digested last week's drop in U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories, reversing the trend in crude oil prices.
Today's European trading session, the Eurozone October CPI annualized final value, is the focus of the market. Compare to the recent German data; the Eurozone data is expected to end October with a similar annualized consumer price index, limiting the Euro’s gains. During U.S. trading hours, the market is looking at the monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in October, and market estimates are up from previous levels. Before tonight's U.S. data, bullish dollar, also bullish Dow futures and crude oil prices. The dollar could then adjust for a fall in the absence of significant U.S. data early next week. Dow futures and crude oil prices may also follow suit, with opportunities to be bullish on gold and silver.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
11:00 Bank of Canada governor Charles speech ***
17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report **
18:00 Eurozone September trade account **
18:00 Eurozone October CPI ***
21:30 New York Fed manufacturing index **
21:30 U.S. October retail sales ***
22:15 U.S. October industrial output **
23:00 U.S. September business inventories *
1.1030/1. 1040 resistance
The Eurozone economy did not perform well, and investors lacked interest in investing in the Euro by easing monetary policy. Estimate the final annual rate of CPI in Eurozone today is keeping low. Before the release, the Eurodollar is expected to maintain a downward trend. Expectations that U.S. retail sales rose in October were bullish for the dollar and bearish for the Euro.
British pound to dollar
Recent British economic data for October have been mostly weak and bearish for pound. UK retail sales data for October were affected, which was bearish for pound. Market opinion polls have suggested that Britain's ruling conservative party could win the election in December, bullish the pound. Short-term focus on today's US economic data forecast, bullish for the dollar, bearish for pound.
Australian dollar to US dollar
Market worries about Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate next week, lost investment confidence in the Australian dollar, bearish Australian dollar. Besides, the United States government giving pressure and threatening trade negotiations. On the other hands, Fed chairman said no intend to cut interest rate, bearish for the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar finally broke through 0.6820 support. The Australian dollar is expected to remain low against the U.S. dollar ahead of next week's RBA meeting. Also, limit gains in the New Zealand dollar.
Against Muti international trade deals risk on and following the rising gold prices, USDJPY fell. If Dow and Nikkei futures extend losses, the USDJPY could test 108.35 or 108.00. Conversely, if Dow and Nikkei futures rise, the USDJPY could test 109.40.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
The Bank of Canada said it was dovish and was expected to be planning to cut interest rates. The Canadian dollar fell by the tough talk and talk of an earlier US President's trade deal with Canada. Last night the US government said it would be able to resolve the issue by the end of the year. But crude oil and energy reports and U.S. oil inventories indirectly limited crude prices and indirectly limited the rise in the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD is expected first to explore 1.3215 or 1.3205 support. The market is watching the bank of Canada governor David speak before noon today.
United States crude oil futures
The international crude oil and energy report and the U.S. crude oil inventory report did not boost crude oil demand, indirectly failed to bullish crude oil prices, the trend reversed. Technically, the $57.75 resistance succeeded without breaking through the resistance. According to yesterday's analysis, crude oil price adjustment, the initial target is expected to be $56.70, then look at 56.05 support.
International trade concerns by the U.S. President's comments, which cooled risk aversion and bullish gold prices. Technically, gold broke through resistance at $1468 and $1470 in the first phase, and the price could continue to rise. Due to U.S. President's remarks and federal reserve chairman Powell's testimony at the federal reserve, monetary policy orientation is still likely to be affected by the economic slowdown, bullish gold prices. If Dow futures go down, gold could rise. Note the Dow futures, Asian index futures, as a reference.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures rose after the U.S. and China planned to sign the first phase of a trade deal next month and the U.S. President agreed to resolve a US-Mex-Canada trade deal by the end of the year. Besides, Dow Jones industrial average futures are expected to post again in U.S. retail sales today. But in testimony to the federal reserve, Fed Chairman Powell said he would not consider cutting interest rates in the future, which could affect the bearish stock market. If U.S. retail sales are only in line with expectations, Dow futures could adjust. Technically, if Dow futures have a chance to fall, they could test 27650 or 27420 support, and a break above 27420 support could extend the decline.
9180/ 9280 resistance
8500/ 8350 support
Technically, the cryptocurrency demand decreased, the trend bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8350 support, look at US7885 support. Without any good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could keep downtrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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