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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 21
Personal opinions today:
The FOMC minutes released that the current level of interest rate is appropriate and that they have no intention to consider a rate cut in the short term and will not view a negative interest rate policy. The comments helped explain expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. However, some officials expressed concern that the global trade war would affect the economy of the United States and the global economy. If US consumption and economic growth slow, it will consider cutting interest rates. Then, after the US President expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of China's trade deal, the market worried that the first phase of the US-China trade deal delayed. Dow futures were fell more than 100 points from the close of the day, lifting gold prices. The dollar index was also affected, with other significant currencies rising against the dollar. Crude oil prices have been affected by a substantial increase in crude oil inventories down. But the Fed minutes and the Russian President and government support for a production cut, the crude oil prices rebounded, reached as high as $57.
Today focus, The ECB minutes, Bank of Canada, Charles speech and the U.S. existing home sales. U.S. existing home sales results maybe affected the US dollar, Dow and commodity market.
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
15:30 Swiss industrial output in Q3 **
17:30 U.K. government balance **
20:30 ECB minutes ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims last week ***
21:30 Philadelphia fed manufacturing index **
21:40 Bank of Canada, Charles speech ***
23:00 U.S. existing home sales **
23:00 U.S. CB leading indicators *
1.1085/1. 1095 resistance
European central bank officials say growth in the European economy is slowing in the short term and could pick up in the first half of next year. But growth in Europe is expected to remain low next year, suggesting monetary policy will remain loose and keeps negative interest rates will be maintained to limit the Euro’s gains. Technically, if the dollar falls, the Euro has a chance to break through 1.11. Otherwise, the Euro still has a chance to test 1.09 against the dollar. Currently, watch for 1.1085 or 1.1095 resistance and lower target 1.1055 or 1.1045 support.
British pound to dollar
Markets are optimistic about the U.K. conservative party return to the House of Commons, predicting a strong chance of victory in next month's general election, as well as an orderly Brexit next year. But with the result of next month's UK general election, limited the British pound gains against US dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. President criticised the Fed for the slow pace of interest rate cuts, and some Fed officials were dovish comments, which were bearish for the dollar and bullish for the pound. Technically, the short-term focus 1.2945 important resistance. If there is no breakthrough the important resistance, the trend may adjust. There is an opportunity to approach to 1.2865 support.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The US President's comments have once again triggered China's trade deal. The market is worried that the first phase of the agreement cannot be signed in December, and the additional tariffs are once again being imposed, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. The dollar's move was helped by the Fed’s dovish commentary in monetary policy, could bullish AUDUSD.
The U.S. President, unsanitary with the progress and pace of trade deal, also criticized the federal reserve's monetary policy, which bearish the dollar. In addition, trade tensions heats up, the Dow futures and the Nikkei index futures fell, the dollar fell against the yen to follow the steps. For now, the key is the Fed’s monetary policy record showed the direction of dollar interest rates. More importantly, the lack of progress in trade deals between the United States and China, cannot change the investment climate, tend to cause the dollar to fall against the yen. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test significant resistance against the Japanese yen.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Progress on a U.S.-Canada trade deal is expected in December, though, and a deal could be signed next month. The both sides have not fully reached an deal, the market on the prospects of fear, continue to bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, it could use OPEC and Russia government coming to cut crude production, bullish oil prices and bullish the Canadian dollar. Currently the resistance could observed at 1.3345.
United States crude oil futures
The U.S. President's comments and a sharp rise in U.S. API crude inventories are bearish for crude oil prices. The current global trade deal with US, have encountered difficulties. The crude oil prices may still need to correction. But with OPEC and the Russian government agreeing to cut output, the price of crude oil could support. It may believe that first support at $55.85. If Crude oil prices rebound, the key resistance would looking at $58 barrier.
Dow futures fell yesterday and gold rebounded from a low of $1,465, after FOMC minutes and US President speech. If Dow futures continue to fall, gold is expected to test $1,480 resistance. Expect in short term, the gold would test $1472 support. The next support bit, observed at $1,465 support.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The market did not confirm whether the US government would sign a trade deal with China and Canada in mid-December, and investment sentiment dropped. FOMC minutes showed it was not considering cutting interest rates. Investors are worried about the fourth-quarter economic growth and corporate earnings. Dow futures continued to correction for the recent monthly gains. Technically, Dow futures correction, it may be down to 27450 key support.
8380/ 8480 resistance
7950/ 7885 support
Technically, the crypto currency demand decreased, bearish Bitcoin price. Now the bitcoin price under US8350 support, looking at lower to US7885 support. However, US President and Fed officials comments and Dow future fell. That is good news for crypto currency; the bitcoin price could reverse and uptrend. If the bitcoin price over US8480 resistance, it could test US9000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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