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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 27
Personal opinions today:
The US President said that China and US trade deals were close to finalising the first phase, lead to drafting a text. The market is predicting that if the agreement is implemented soon, the U.S. government will probably suspend the threat of additional import tariffs worth $150 billion to China and promote economic development. The news lifted Dow futures again to a near half-year closing high, offsetting yesterday's weak US economic data. But consistently, U.S. economic data has been weaker than market expectations, potentially affecting the Fed’s monetary policy. The dollar index adjusted gains, gold and silver prices rose, European currencies rose slightly. U.S. API crude stocks were declined compared with last week, but still higher than market expectations, with US crude oil prices limiting the $58.50 resistance.
This evening, the final reading of real U.S. GDP for the third quarter, weekly jobless claims, October durable goods orders and the core U.S. PCE price index will provide valuable guidance for the U.S. economy in the first part of the fourth quarter and are more likely to influence market views of the federal reserve's December 11 monetary meeting. So investors will find an essential clue in the Fed Beige Book-report on the state of the economy at 3 a.m. tomorrow. Stock markets, gold prices and the dollar index are expected to fluctuate between the start and end of today's U.S. trading session.
This weekend is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday; investors need to consider investment institutions may use the holiday positioning, various asset prices may reverse the trend.
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index *
21:30 U.S. revised real Q3 GDP ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims last week ***
21:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ***
22:45 U.S. Chicago November PMI **
23:00 U.S. Personal spending **
23:00 U.S. core PCE price index ***
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **
The next day 3:00 Fed Beige Book ***
1.1030/1. 1040 resistance
Despite the recent the performance of Eurozone economic data weak. Assuming that ECB monetary policy will maintain negative interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for the Euro. But yesterday, the U.S. economy was weak, and the market is expected U.S. economic data, and Fed Beige Book may bring weak U.S. economic information. On the sidelines, short - term Euro. Technically, the Euro limited to 1.1030 or 1.1040 resistance. If the U.S. economic data this evening and the Fed Beige Book all not disappoint the market and investors. The dollar rose, and the Euro may test 1.0985 support. If the breakthrough support will be test 1.0955 support.
British pound to dollar
The British pound was capped at $1.2905 yesterday on expectations of stronger US economic data. The market is looking ahead to today's expected US economic data and the results of the Fed Beige Book report on the state of the US economy, the pound fell and reached 1.2840. While the market is on the sidelines, the GBP is expected to have an opportunity to test support at 1.2815 or 1.2800. If not any news is not likely to boost the pound, the important resistance level maintained 1.2905 resistance.
Australian dollar to US dollar
Australia's economic confidence index continued to fall, limiting the AUDUSD. RBA President Paul Lowe comments yesterday on Australia's inflation performance is not optimistic, bearish Australian dollar. Relative to New Zealand economic growth, the New Zealand dollar rose against the United States dollar, the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar cross - trade fell. Technically, the Australian dollar is currently down to support to 0.6765 or 0.6755. But it is worth keeping in mind for investors that trade talks between the U.S. and China may be nearing completion, which could also bullish the Australian dollar. If the AUDUSD breaks through 0.6805 resistance, the first target is expected to be 0.6855 or 0.6885, respectively.
It was reported yesterday that the US and China trade deals, it is closing to complete the first phase of the agreement and is arranging a high-level meeting. Take this; investor strengthens investment confidence, Dow and Asian stock market build well, drive the dollar to rise against Japanese yen. Technical analysis expected that the USDJPY, 108.80 and 108.70 for the current reference support level. If Dow and Nikkei futures continue to grow, it is possible to extend the surge. The dollar also benefited against the Japanese yen. If the first stage breaks through 109.15, it can challenge the important resistance of 109.40 to the upper level.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
OPEC plans to discuss a deal to cut crude production in December, and U.S. crude inventories declined, bullish crude oil prices and indirectly bullish the Canadian dollar. Progress on a trade deal between Canada and the United States is now expected in December. If it would boosting trade between the two countries and potentially bullish the Canadian dollar. Today the US data would lead the trends of the Canadian dollar. Technically, if USDCAD breaks through 1.3255 or 1.3245 support. Look down 1.3205 or 1.3185 support, respectively.
United States crude oil futures
OPEC and the Russian government initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. International trade atmosphere to further improve, crude oil prices are expected to test $58. The United States reported a drop in API crude oil inventories, believe the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories also fell. In the short term, see if the crude oil inventory data can push crude oil prices even higher. More focus tonight, the U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book. Technically, watching for resistance in the $59 to $60 range for crude oil futures if it shows US strong economic growth. If the trend reverses, pay attention to the first target, 56.85 support.
Dow futures rose despite a prosperous outlook for trade talks. But gold prices were boosted last night by weak US economic data and increased risk aversion. But higher Dow futures limited gold's gains, stopping at $1,462. An estimated rebound in gold to $1,465 was technically limited as markets focused on tonight's U.S. economic data and the federal reserve's beige book. If fundamentals point to a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, gold has downside risk.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
China and the U.S. trade department are in active negotiations to implement the first phase of a trade agreement and have the opportunity to suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Rising investment sentiment lifted Dow futures to a record close. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27975 and 27870 support. If the U.S. economy continues to show significant growth, Dow futures could look to break through 28160 and 28215 resistance, the second target. Also, focus on tonight's U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book, with an increased chance for Dow futures to break through resistance if the outlook for the U.S. economy is positive.
7280/ 7400 resistance
6450/ 6250 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price now under US7885 support, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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