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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 6
Personal opinions today:
OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to extend production cuts at the 177th OPEC meeting yesterday, boosting crude prices to near $59. Today's meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers will be followed by a press conference in the evening, suggesting a continued focus on the release, which will bring volatility to crude oil prices. It also indirectly affects Dow futures, Canadian dollars and British pounds, which are sensitive to crude oil prices.
Tonight's focus will be U.S. payrolls for November, the unemployment rate and the preliminary reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index. Recent U.S. data on ADP payrolls for November and higher jobless claims for are expected to lower US non-farm payrolls than expected this evening, bearish the dollar. The dollar index is now down at 97, level and Dow futures and the dollar index are expected to rebound if non-farm payrolls are flat or better than market expectations. But they are relatively bearish on gold and silver.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:00 German industrial output **
15:45 France trade account *
16:30 U.K. Halifax house price index **
18:00 the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting **
21:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate ***
23:00 U.S. wholesale sales **
23:00 U.S. Michigan consumer confidence index ***
Press conference for the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting to be announced ***
U.S. ADP employment fell to just 67,000 in November, while the dollar continued to fall and bullish the Euro. Currently looking at 1.1115 and 1.1125 resistance. If the overnight U.S. non-farm payrolls data maintains market expectations of 180,000 or more, the Euro could test important support targets at 1.1065 and 1.1055 against the dollar, given dollar strength.
British Pound to the dollar
Ahead of next week's UK election, the focus will be on tonight's US non-farm payrolls data for November and higher jobless claims. The dollar continued to fall and bullish British pound. Technically, watching for the resistance at $1.3180 and $1.3190. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data maintains market expectations of 180,000 or more and the dollar strengthens, the pound could test support at $1.3075 and $1.3065.
Australian dollar to dollar
Hopes for progress in US and China trade talks could bullish to the Australian dollar. However, the progress of the trade negotiations has not been formally implemented, limiting the rise of the Australian dollar. If the good news stimulates, boost the Australian dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6860 or 0.6870 resistance. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data beats expectations, consider the AUDUSD could test 0.6800, the first support level.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and Nikkei futures rebounded, and the dollar rose against the Japanese yen. OPEC members decided they cut output and extend output cuts. Higher crude oil price, bearish Japanese yen. However, Dow futures fell since U.S. non-farm payrolls data were weak. The dollar is expected to fall against the Japanese yen, testing first support at 108.45 or 108.35. In contrast, U.S. non-farm payrolls data beat expectations, Dow futures rose, and the dollar could test 109.15 or 109.25 resistance against the Japanese yen.
OPEC and non-OPEC leaders agreed to extend production cuts until the end of 2020, bullish crude oil prices. A rebound in crude oil prices above $57 could be bullish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD is estimated today to test 1.3165 and 1.3155 support on U.S. non-farm employment data expectations. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls data show strong growth or crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD will be looking for a 1.3235 or 1.3245 headwind.
US crude oil futures
OPEC and non-OPEC meeting, successful discussion of production cuts. Crude oil prices were boosted by news of an extended production cut. However, the combined output did not meet market expectations, and crude oil prices from $59 adjusted increase, limiting the upward and reversing. Tonight, another meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers could provide another news to the market. Technically, if crude breaks $58.70 again, it will move up $59.10, and the next target will move up 59.55. However, it is important to note that crude oil prices have a chance to adjust to a higher level on the $59 resistance.
Yesterday, the US jobless claims rose compared with last week. It was bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold prices. But the U.S. President said there was good news in the trade talks, causing Dow futures and global stock markets to continue to rebound, and gold prices to limit gains. Now that U.S. jobs data is below market expectations, there's an opportunity to be bearish on Dow futures, and gold could rise again after adjusting for gains. If Dow futures fall, gold could try another $1,480 or see $1,484 and $1,486.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
A surprise drop in U.S. ADP payrolls in November, combined with concerns over US and China trade talks, limited Dow futures room for a rebound. Tonight, US release non-farm payrolls data, it could be bearish for Dow futures before. If the outcome below market expectations and approaches near the ADP number. Technically, Dow futures are expected to test 27,579 or 27,420 support. For further declines, watch out for 27365 or 27275 support. Resistance levels refer to 27830 and 27935.
7750/ 7885 resistance
7050/ 6850 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If Dow future holds fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885. Otherwise, the Dow future rebounded, the bitcoin price could test lower. Such US7050 or US6850 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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