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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 19
Personal opinions today:
Investors are focusing on whether the BoJ and BoE will keep monetary policy loose as they announce interest-rate decisions today. At the same time on the central bank governor's economic outlook, the next year's monetary policy strategy. Crude oil prices could also fall, but gold prices could rise if continued monetary easing and a pessimistic economic outlook hurt currencies and related stock markets. In the market, the central bank monetary policy is widely expected to remain unchanged, but the economic outlook from pessimistic to positive, which is also good news, suitable related currencies and oil prices, negative gold prices.
In European trading today, focus on UK retail sales for November. If UK retail sales beat market expectations for a 0.3 per cent rise in November, the pound could gain. Moreover, it is likely to have a positive impact on the bank of England's monetary policy, with an opportunity for the pound to rebound and vice versa. In the evening session of the U.S. market, the number of U.S. jobless claims last week and the total number of U.S. existing home sales in November were the most noteworthy, providing volatility to the market.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
11:00 Bank of Japan interest rate decision
15:00 Switzerland trade account **
17:30 UK retail sales ***
20:00 Bank of England interest rate decision ***
21:30 Canada wholesale sales **
21:30 U.S. current account Q3 ***
21:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index **
21:30 U.S. jobless claims change ***
23:00 U.S. existing home sales **
Eurozone economic data yesterday, business sentiment index beat market expectations, bullish for the Euro. Eurozone consumer prices were flat in November before limited the gains and falling back to expectations of 1.1115 support. For the time being, we continue to refer to EURUSD resistance of 1.1155 and 1.1165 but recommend a lower resistance of 1.1335 and 1.1145. If this resistance fails on the Euro, look below for 1.1090 or 1.1080 important support.
Pound to dollar
UK CPI and RPI rose in November, beating expectations. The retail sales number are also expected to rise in the UK today, with gains expected in the pound. The pound rose as the Bank of England raised interest rates on expectations of continued growth in line with UK economic data. Preliminary technical support is 1.3060 or 1.3050 low a week ago as a reference. Look up at 1.3115 or 1.3125 resistance. If the pound break 1.3125 resistance, look up at 1.3165 or 1.3210.
Australian dollar to dollar
Australia unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in November. Data beat market expectations; the Australian dollar had risen. Should global trade tensions improve further, the Australian dollar could gain. Investors are waiting for the U.S. real Q3 GDP tomorrow. If growth is seen, the Australian dollar will try 0.6900.
Dollar to yen
Dow futures rose, USDJPY following the trends. The market expectations that BoJ monetary policy will continue to ease; it is expected but recommended that the USDJPY between 109.40 and 109.75. If there is a change in the outlook for monetary policy, watch for dollar/yen volatility. Technically, Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225) often dominate dollar-yen movements. Estimates are currently looking at 109.75 or 109.85 resistance.
Crude oil prices have risen and completed the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal. Last night, Canada CPI as lower than market expectations, believe the trend of the Canadian dollar has an opportunity to fall. Technically, USDCAD is expected to test the end of 1.31 support. Suggest watching crude oil price trend, indirect to lead the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices were supported by the U.S. government's decision to suspend trade tariffs, a more precise outlook for Brexit and higher demand for crude oil in the Q4. The market is looking ahead to the release of U.S. real Q3 GDP tomorrow, with crude oil prices estimated to have hit $60.95 or $61.15.
Markets watched the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, with gold prices hovering between $1,470 and $1,480 in the near term. If there is no change in monetary policy in Japan and the UK, the gold price downside. Suggest a short run between $1470 and $1480. If the US Q3 GDP increased, the gold price could test lower tomorrow.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Investor keeps looking ahead to the final reading on U.S. Q3 GDP. Note that before the end of the year, financial institutions traditionally settle for assets and liquidate their positions profitably. Dow futures could see any correction and any time. If the final reading of U.S. Q3 GDP is released tomorrow. Technically, if Dow futures test 28370 or 28415 resistance, watch out for trend reversals. Break 28125 support; the decline has a chance to expand.
7350/ 7485 resistance
6875/ 6755 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the US7400 as the bitcoin price resistance. If not break the resistance, keep looking at US6755 support and US6400.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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