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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 27
Personal opinions today:
This morning, Japan reported its unemployment rate, retail sales and inflation rate for November. Industrial production and inventories and a summary of BoJ policy meeting deliberations. A series of data show growth, better than expected. The Japanese yen rose in the Asian session to offset yesterday's losses. But gains in the yen were also limited by gains in U.S. Dow futures.
During the Christmas holiday, market information was scarce and the trading volume was lower than usual. See the commodity market by the end of the year under the factors, to rise. The gold market was buoyant, with prices as high as $1, 512. However, gold's gains are expected to be limited as a result of the weekend profit consolidation. With the European market today, watch for a reversal in gold. Tonight's U.S. crude oil inventory announcement, if inventories do not decrease but increase, crude oil prices have a chance to adjust.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
09:30 China industrial profits for November **
17:00 European Central Bank economic bulletin ***
17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for December *
24:00 US EIA crude oil inventory change ***
European markets re-open after the Christmas holidays, the market trading not active. In the Asian sessions, the Euro may rise. But note the afternoon economic bulletin from the European central bank, which could test 1.1085 or 1.1075 support against the dollar if it continues to forecast a lack of growth expectations in the first quarter of next year, which could limit investor appetite.
Pound to dollar
The BoE governor said before, the outlook for the UK economy was uncertain and that the monetary policy would remain loose, bearish the pound. After the U.K. parliament approved the Brexit deal at the end of January. On the technical analysis, the pound is testing 1.3000 resistance. Rebound wave 38.2% for 1.3050, is the key resistance. With investors still uncertain about an orderly Brexit at the end of January, a high degree of caution is needed. Based on the current uncertain outlook, it is recommended to focus on 1.3050 resistance and 1.2945 support. And the technical reference 1.2945 support to start, staged entry to see the rise in the pound. If you break 1.3050 resistance, look up to the 1.32 level.
Australian dollar to dollar
Confidence in consumer spending rose at the end of the year as international trade tensions eased. The market is forecasting higher commodity and base metal prices next year. Moreover, China, which has a close relationship with Australia's trade, has boosted the Australian dollar's exchange rate as the trade and consumption season raises Australia's export expectations. Technically, it is recommended to refer to the trend of currencies in the Asia-pacific region, especially the Japanese yen and the China RMB exchange rate, which is believed to be references of the Australian dollar trends.
Dollar to yen
During the Christmas holiday, the overall market trading volume lower. The yen edged higher today after a slew of Japanese economic and inflation data beat market expectations. Without U.S. data release today, the dollar-yen trends may follow the Dow futures and the Nikkei index.
U.S. jobs claims declined, and U.S. API crude stocks are down sharply, sending crude prices higher. In addition, a new trade agreement between Canada and the United States will soon be finalized. If crude oil has a chance to break above $62 and Canadian consumption growth expectations continue, the USDCAD is expected to test the October low at $1.3050 after trading at $1.3100. However, the 1.3085 support bit can be tested first.
US crude oil futures
U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week and Christmas spending rose, supporting a rise in crude prices to a three-month high. Technically, watch U.S. crude futures try 62.15 resistance, testing US63.85 next high. However, closer to the weekend, the price could be a correction.
The rally continued after gold broke through $1,503. Prices are rising daily between the start of the European market and the U.S. market every day. At the moment, the market is not driven by rising risk aversion, but by investors presumably dealing with some of their short positions. Without real demand for risk aversion, gold prices could lose support at any time if market risk appetite rises. At present, if expectation good in global economic outlook, carefully gold prices fell.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The U.S. government says it will sign the first phase of a trade deal with China next month. Also, the Dow upward after initial jobless claims fell and Christmas spending increased. Technically, Dow futures hit the first target and broke the resistance as expected in this analysis. The next target could be 28725 or 28800 resistance. But toward the end of the year, note Dow futures adjustment risk because investors take profit.
7550 / 7775 resistance
6955 / 6800 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the trends seem downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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