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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 30
Personal opinions today:
U.S. trade officials said the first phase of a trade deal with China is expected to be signed next month. Also, Dow futures rose on expectations for global economic growth. However, due to the tension between the U.S. and north Korea, some funds have been flowing into gold prices and the Japanese yen, which are even more bearish to the US dollar. The dollar also fell against other major currencies, with the Euro edging closer to $1.12 and the pound testing $1.3110. Commodity currencies also rose, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hitting four-month highs. Crude oil prices continue to rise, driving up the Canadian dollar. USDCAD at 1.30 level.
In European trading today, Germany real retail sales and Switzerland released KOF economic leading indicator. As New Year's holiday approaches, U.S. data are scarce. In the United States, the December Chicago PMI, November pending home sales index and Dallas fed business activity index were released today.
Some countries in Europe will be closed tomorrow or early, trading volume could lower. If nothing important happens, the broad market moves up and down in a ranging.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:00 Germany real retail sales ***
16:00 Switzerland KOF economic leading indicator **
22:45 U.S. Chicago PMI in December **
23:00 U.S. pending home sales index **
23:30 U.S. Dallas fed business activity index **
Before the end of the year, some institutions adjust positions, covering short positions in the Euro, the Euro rose, the last test of the two-week high of 1.1197. Markets focus on afternoon trading session, Germany November actual retail sales, market forecast growth, now bullish on the Euro. If the data only meets expectations, there is an opportunity to be negative for the Euro. Technical estimates that the Euro’s adjustment is expected to test either 1.1175 or 1.1165 support.
Pound to dollar
Approaching the New Year holiday and the end of the year portfolio adjustment, the short position covered, pound rebound. Technically, the 38.2% rebound from a mid-month high of 1.3520 and a one-week ago low of 1.2904 was 1.3137, a key technical resistance. But investors remain cautious about Brexit by the end of January. With the UK economy still in limpid shape, there is a chance of limiting gains to 1.3137 headwinds. For now, investors remain on the sidelines, with the pound likely to test 1.3060 or 1.3050 support against the dollar if gains are adjusted.
Australian dollar to dollar
The Australian dollar rebounded to a four-month high on easing trade sentiment between China and the United States, as well as expectations of rising consumer confidence and manufacturing and demand for industrial metals. In addition, the US dollar adjustment, to support the Australian dollar up. But watch today's U.S. December Chicago PMI and other U.S. data and expectations for other U.S. data this week, which have an opportunity to bullish the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar lower.
Dollar to yen
A rise in risk aversion ahead of the New Year holiday, combined with the fact that some funds settle before the end of the year, pushed the dollar lower against the yen. The dollar is likely to remain flat against the yen on expectations for U.S. data today. It is recommended, 109.25 or 109.15 support and 109.65 or 109.75 resistance.
US - Mexico - Canada, new trade deal to be implemented soon. In addition, crude oil prices continued to rise, global economic optimism and easing trade sentiment helped Canadian exports, with the U.S. dollar testing an October low of 1.3040 after potentially testing $1.3100 against the Canadian dollar. the 1.3040 as a reference key support.
US crude oil futures
The market is predicting higher demand for crude oil at the end of the year, with the U.S. API crude stocks expected to shrink again last week, supporting higher crude oil prices. Technically, watch U.S. crude oil futures test $62.05 resistance. If the breakthrough, expect to test technical resistance $63.80. But close to the holiday, pay attention to the oil price adjustment. $62.05 resistance is the key resistance in short term.
Gold continued its rally, hitting a two-month high near $1, 516. It may be affected by the tension between the US and north Korea and fund portfolio allocation. If the above situation settled, and rising global economic expectation, global stocks keeping upward, suggestion carefully gold prices fell. For now, watch for $1516 or $1518 resistance, while support is recommended for $1508 or $1506 support.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow future continued to upward after the U.S. government said it would complete the first phase of a trade deal with China next month, coupled with a year-end consumption season and a positive investment climate. Technically, Dow futures completed the first target 28685 and test the next target 28800 resistance. But near the end of the year, pay attention to the investors take profit, lead the Dow future reverse.
7550 / 7775 resistance
6955 / 6800 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, could bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish the bitcoin price in short terms. Technically, the bitcoin’s trend seem downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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