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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 2
Personal opinions today:
Happy New Year 2020, wish you all have a good year!
The global market reopened after the New Year holiday. In the markets today, the United States and Europe will release the final manufacturing PMI for December. The final reading of the manufacturing PMI helps to gauge a country's productivity, investment climate, and spending power. A more important reference is made to the relevant data to help gauge the country's Labour market and inflation expectation. Today's U.S. jobless claims and the U.S. final Markit manufacturing PMI for December help compare the economic dynamics of the United States with those of other countries. The value of the dollar has an important influence on U.S. stocks. Investors would more focus on U.S. data, and investors will react more when weekly jobless claims and the final Markit manufacturing PMI for December are released today.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
09:45 China manufacturing PMI **
16:50 French manufacturing PMI *
16:55 Germany manufacturing PMI ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI **
17:30 U.K. manufacturing PMI **
21:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI ***
Dow futures opened higher this morning in anticipation of U.S. economic data. While the dollar is still in a correction range, the euro rose. Since the euro broke through a two-week high of 1.1197, the technical trend has been bullish for the euro. Markets looked to the afternoon for final manufacturing PMI readings for December in Germany and the Eurozone. If the data is flat, investors will look at the U.S. data, as long as the U.S. economic data beat expectations, the opportunity to bearish euro. Technically, 1.1205 and 1.1195 are short-term support bits. If the support bit is broken, expect to test 1.1175 support.
Pound to dollar
Investors remain concern about Brexit at the end of January. If the rally is adjusted, GBP/USD could try 1.3210 support or below. The short-term GBP/USD rebound was 61.8% at 1.3280, with 1.3210 being the first support level if adjusted from that position.
Australian dollar to dollar
The reserve bank of Australia has been saying it expects a rate cut at the central bank's meeting in February. However, the market has already digested the news that the U.S. trade representative and China will complete the first phase of the agreement by the middle of this month, which is positive for commodity trading prospects and supports the Australian dollar's rise on the expectation of growth in demand for basic industrial metals. If the AUD rally technically ends at 0.7030, first look below the 0.6985 support level. Keep an eye on the U.S.
jobless claims and the final Markit manufacturing PMI for December, which can influence the dollar and indirectly against the Australian dollar.
Dollar to yen
By the end of last year, funds had settled and money was flowing into the yen, pushing the dollar lower against the yen. But macroeconomic and Dow futures performance, believe the opportunity for capital outflow from the yen rose. If the USDJPY moves down to 108.50 or 108.40 support, there is little room to fall. The dollar/yen has a chance to break through another 109.5 or 109.15 resistance before testing the 110 major resistance. Suggestions on whether Dow futures will continue to rise tonight, driving the dollar up 109 and test 109.15.
Canada and the United States will soon implement a trade agreement, bullish for the Canadian dollar. In addition, strong crude oil prices and optimism about the global economy increased Canadian exports, USDCAD could testing support at $1.2940. However, we must pay attention to the oil price adjustment, which will affect the future market adjustment, the Canadian dollar fell, the USDCAD rose.
US crude oil futures
Crude failed to break through $62 before the holidays, trading at $60.60 after a 73.6% correction, but recovered to $61.75. Note that crude oil prices still have a chance to adjust. 62.05 resistance is the key resistance at present, the important support bit reference 60.60 support. Global economic sentiment has brightened on the back of last week's drawdown in crude stocks, which is expected to test another $62.
Before the holiday, gold's rally weakened to $1525 before retreating to $1515. Tensions between the United States and North Korea have prompted some fund portfolios to shift to gold, protecting against any disputes and stock market declines. But there is no dispute, the stock market investment atmosphere with the Dow futures, advice note gold prices fell. If gold prices try again at $1524 or above, it is recommended to remain bearish. If gold breaks 1512 support, the next target $1505.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow continued to rise after the U.S. President said China and the U.S. plan to sign a first-phase trade deal in Washington later this month on Jan 15. Although Dow futures have had a correction, mainly by the impact of investor interest. With macroeconomic and market expectations for global economic growth, Dow futures have an opportunity to test highs by mid-month. The moving averages of 10 and 20 in the short hourly chart will be used as reference support bits.
7350 / 7500 resistance
6800 / 6700 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, and investors also expected the Fed rate on hold in the first quarter. It could bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall. If we found the market risk on and the stock market fall, it would bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, the bitcoin’s trend seems downward. US7500 as a reference resistance.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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