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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 3
Personal opinions today:
Manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States continued to expand in December, boosting investment sentiment. In addition, U.S. jobless claims continued to fall last week and Dow futures rose to a record high. The dollar index and Dow futures are expected to rise ahead of the release of the December ISM manufacturing PMI this evening and the minutes of the Fed at 03:00 the following day.
In European trading today, the market forecast German unemployment in December and the unemployment rate and consumer price index rose from November, believe the euro and pound. But the dollar is likely to be bullish after the European data, as the U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to grow in December and the federal reserve releases the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. While the dollar and dow futures rose, gold prices had no impact. But watch out for gold prices, which fall when investors reposition. Crucially, tomorrow's minutes from the federal reserve's monetary policy meeting and Britain's departure from Europe could provide good news.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:00 UK Nationwide house price index *
15:45 France CPI monthly rate **
16:55 Germany unemployment change and rate ***
17:30 UK mortgage license **
21:00 Germany CPI preliminary rate ***
23:00 U.S. construction spending *
23:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI **
24:00 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change **
At 03:00 the next day, the FOMC minutes ***
Euro trend adjustment, after breaking through 1.1195 support, down to 1.1175 support, as low as 1.1162. Markets are focused on the German unemployment rate and CPI inflation rate in the afternoon. Watch us ISM manufacturing PMI for December tonight. Technically, euro 1.1195 is an important short-term resistance. In addition, the 20-hour average is above the current euro level. If there is no break of 1.1185, if the euro continues to adjust, the next level of important support is 1.1152 and 1.1132.
Pound to dollar
Investors remained cautious about whether the Brexit process would go smoothly at the end of January and adjusted for gains, with the pound breaking through the 1.3210 support level against the dollar and extending to 1.3150. The current 20-hour average continues to decline, looking for opportunities for sterling to test 1.3130 or 1.3100 support.
Australian dollar to dollar
The reserve bank of Australia has been saying it expects a rate cut at the central bank's meeting in February. Technically, the AUDUSD rally ended with a 23.6% bounce on the weekly chart, ending at 0.7030. At present, it has reached below the looking target of 0.6985 support. In the Australian dollar hourly chart, the 20-hour average resistance is 0.6990. If no breakthrough is made, the downtrend target will be extended to 0.6955 and 0.6945.
Dollar to yen
Japan holiday, no economic data announced. The market to see how the U.S ISM manufacturing PMI. Technically, the dollar has continued to trade at 107.85 to 109.70 against the yen over the past two months. If the short - term does not break the upper limit of this range, it is recommended to maintain low buy high sell. It is recommended to focus on 108.00 and 107.85 support in the short term. If the Middle East and US tensions cool down, the USDJPY would be upward.
Canada and the United States will soon implement a trade agreement, the Canadian dollar. If the strength in crude oil prices continues and breaks through recent resistance, the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar is expected to test the 1.2940 support level below the previous $63. However, we must pay attention to the oil price adjustment, which will affect the future market adjustment, the Canadian dollar fell, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar rose.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices have rebounded again to break above $62, but caution should be exercised on the possibility of a correction. For now, U.S. API crude oil inventories fell last week and are believed to be down in EIA crude oil inventories due tonight. Crude oil prices are likely to test $63 before the first adjustment. Wait until the $61 level, then consider making a long position.
Gold started the rally again, since Mideast and U.S. tensions, breaking through $1,525 before continuing its upward. If the stock market rally, note gold prices fell. Technically, $1,556 is the highest for all of last year on a large chart. If close to this range, the greater the downside risk, please pay attention.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow rose as global optimism mounted over plans by the United States and China to sign the first phase of a trade deal in Washington this month. The market, mindful of the recent stability of the U.S. economic outlook, is happy to add to the stock market's weight, hoping to begin in the middle of this month, the U.S. corporate earnings to bring good news. Now, with macroeconomic and market expectations for global economic growth, Dow futures have the opportunity to test highs by mid-month. By technical, note the moving averages of 10 and 20 in the hourly chart as the reference support bit. If there is a downward cross signal, pay attention to the trend began to adjust downward.
7350 / 7500 resistance
6800 / 6700 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, and investors also expected the Fed rate on hold in the first quarter. It could bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall. If we found the market risk on and the stock market fall, it would bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, bitcoin’s trend seems downward. US7500 as a reference resistance.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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