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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 7
Personal opinions today:
U.S. and Iran have cooled, as have risk aversion. Market focus shifts to global corporate performance and enhanced trade cooperation. Dow Jones futures rebounded last night, gold prices adjusted from high. Asian stock markets such as Japan Nikkei and China's A50 and Hong Kong's index are expected to follow suit. Global stock markets rose and the dollar rose to 108 yen from 107 yen. Crude oil supplies are expected to stabilize in response to a thaw in relations between the United States and Iran, with oil prices adjusting from highs and U.S. crude inventories change looking to tomorrow.
In European trading today, the market forecast Eurozone December CPI and November retail sales growth from the previous value, bullish Euro and pound. But look to limit euro and pound gains as markets price in expectations. In the evening, markets look to U.S. trade balance for November, factory orders and the December ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Probably until tomorrow for U.S. ADP payrolls for December.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:30 Swiss December CPI **
18:00 Eurozone December CPI preliminary reading ***
18:00 Eurozone November retail sales **
21:30 U.S. November trade account **
23:00 U.S. factory orders for November ***
23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for December **
The next day 5:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks change ***
German and eurozone data released yesterday beat expectations. Markets immediately expected eurozone consumer prices to rise in early December and retail sales in November as well. Technically, the euro once broke through 1.1195 as an important short-term resistance, but it remains to be seen whether the euro can be supported by today's euro data to further test 1.1215 or break this resistance. The key will be whether U.S. factory orders for November and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for December beat market expectations.
Pound to dollar
The UK's 12 services PMI beat market expectations, the euro rose and the pound followed suit. However, investors remain focused on whether the exit process will go smoothly at the end of January and continue to remain cautious and confident that this will limit sterling's rise. From the technical analysis, the pound against the dollar 1.3282 is important resistance, the overall trend downward. Note the 1.3205 and 1.3215 resistance in the short term. Should U.S. data beat expectations today, the pound could fall ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls.
The reserve bank of Australia has long said it will cut interest rates at its February meeting. Interest rate futures on the investment futures market show a chance of a rate cut of more than 60 percent in June, a negative for the Australian dollar. Without momentum in Australia and global trade, the Australian dollar is expected to remain under pressure at 0.7000 and 0.7030 USD. The moving average (SMV) resistance in the AUD hourly chart is expected to extend downward or see 0.6885.
Dollar to yen
Global stock market declines triggered by geopolitics eased last night, with dow and nikkei futures rebounding and the dollar rebounding against the yen. It is recommended to keep an eye on stock market performance and capture the direction of dollar-yen trading.
Canada and the United States trade agreement implementation started, the Canadian dollar, estimated the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar is expected to test the 1.2940 support. However, it must be noted that the adjustment of crude oil prices may limit.
US crude oil futures
There are signs of easing after a rise in crude oil prices triggered by geopolitics in the Middle East. Note, however, that if the U.S. President formally imposed sanctions on Iran, it would strain the supply of crude oil and boost the price of crude oil, hitting $64 again. It is important to keep an eye on developments and to be cautious about the volatility of crude oil prices. The market is predicting that U.S. crude oil inventories could be similar to the previous level tomorrow, but the result would be an increase and the price could test the $61 level.
As the situation in the Middle East eases, gold prices immediately fall, breaking through $1570 support, the downside target is expected to test $1558 or $1556 support. But the politics of the Middle East must be closely watched, with the potential for a cascade of rising risks. If the stock market falls, gold and silver prices will rise. It is recommended to keep an eye on the situation, watch dow and nikkei futures and watch gold price movements. If the situation further detente, stock indexes continue to rise, gold prices may adjust the scope of the expansion.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The United States and China plan to sign the first phase of a trade deal in Washington later this month. Plus the market expects growth. Dow futures are expected to upward. At present, note 28470 and 28405 support, resistance 28849 and 28905. If the Middle East cools down, it may test upper resistance.
8200 / 8450 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
the U.S. and Iran tensions, undermining investor appetite and increasing risk aversion. Dow future fell, bullish the bitcoin price. Keep watching the tensions and let cryptocurrency demand increasing and price up.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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