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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 13
Personal opinions today:
U.S. December non-farm payrolls and average wages were below market expectations, but the unemployment rate was unchanged. In addition, the United States sanctions on Iran are also concerned that local tensions will affect the investment climate in global financial markets, more likely to see a rise in risk aversion. Pay attention to these factors, may be bad for the dollar, bearish for the stock market. If the situation escalates, the money will flow into gold and yen. If something happens, causing crude oil is a shortage, the price of crude oil has the opportunity to rise.
In the European session today, keep an eye on UK and Eurozone data, which currencies are likely to volatile.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
Tokyo stock exchange will be closed
17:00 Italy November retail sales *
17:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output November **
17:30 UK November merchandise trade account ***
18:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index **
U.S. December non-farm data fell short of market expectations, while the dollar fell and the Euro gained. The market is watching European data today, if the data beat expectations, bullish Euro. Depending on the data, the Euro rose. Technically, the 1.1145 or 1.1155 resistance level may limit the Euro. On the contrary, the data performance is weak, the Euro rise.
Pound to dollar
Brexit target deadline at the end of this month and the lack of confidence in the market's economic outlook makes it more likely that Ireland will split from Britain. The governor of the Bank of England said current economic and political conditions did not warrant a rate rise. Above factor, bearish pound. Short-term factors, Brent oil prices fell, is also bearish for the pound. In the European session, the UK released key economic data. The pound fluctuates depending on economic data. Technical analysis, 1.3100 is significant short-term resistance for the GBPUSD, support level note 1.3005.
Australian dollar to dollar
On Wednesday, the United States and China will sign a trade deal and are expected to increase trade cooperation between the two countries, indirectly boosting the Australian economy and lowering expectations for a rate cut by the reserve bank of Australia. It could bullish Australian and New Zealand dollars are now expected. Technically, the AUDUSD first resistance is 0.6935 and 0.6945. Expect the New Zealand dollar to have an opportunity to follow the Australian dollar.
Dollar to yen
The Tokyo stock exchange was closed for the Japan holiday. But risk aversion cooled, global stocks rebounded and Asian stocks rose, driving the dollar higher against the yen. If equity markets continue to rise, the dollar could test 109.80 yen. Technically, the dollar has been limiting the $110 barrier against the yen for the past six months. The dollar could fall against the yen if equity markets correction. Suggest keeping an eye on Dow futures performance to capture the dollar-yen trading direction.
Crude oil prices fell, bearish Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices are expected to settle after a correction in the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar last week. If crude oil prices rise, USDCAD could pull back 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.
US crude oil futures
With political tensions in Middle East easing and crude oil prices adjusted, short-term risk aversion is expected to continue for some time. Also, increased demand for seasonal crude oil is expected to test $62 or higher.
Middle East tensions have calmed for a while, but U.S. job growth fell short of market expectations and gold was bullish. At present, the political situation in the Middle East is not stable, and risk events reappear at any time. If found Dow futures fall, a capital fund could flow into gold and silver, let the prices could rise again. For now, the advice is to keep an eye on the situation, watch Dow futures for any moves, and catch gold prices moving.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
On Wednesday, China and the United States signed the first phase of a trade agreement, which increases the investor’s climate. In addition, Dow futures are expected to continue to rise on expectations for U.S. corporate earnings growth. If negative sentiment does not recur, Dow futures are expected to continue their upward trend. Technically, Dow futures reference support is 28775 and 28645, respectively. Significant support 28553.
8250 / 8500 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
Dow futures fell cause of Middle East tensions eased and U.S. jobs data under expectations, bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, US8250 and US8500 as significant resistance
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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