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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 20
Personal opinions today:
U.S. Markets closed for Martin Luther day.
In the afternoon worth watching data today, the German PPI monthly rate in December. Last week, Germany’s CPI was just 0.5% in December, while Germany PPI was expected to remain unchanged in December, bearish for the Euro. Over the weekend, there were reports of tight supplies of crude in the Middle East, lower crude inventories, bullish crude oil prices and, indirectly, bullish gold. Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan will announce interest rates and monetary policy. The BoJ governor’s speech is important.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
(U.S. stock markets closed, CME contracts closed early)
09:30 PBOC one-year lending market quoted rates *
15:00 German PPI for December **
21:00, the IMF releases world economic outlook report **
The Euro fell last week by Germany's final December consumer price index and the minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting. Earlier this analysis suggested keeping an eye on the Euro to limit gains between 1.1165 or 1.1175 resistance, which could fall. The Euro opened below 1.1100 in Asia trading today. Markets are watching Germany PPI for December. Without growth, the Euro has room to fall.
Pound to dollar
The Brexit has affected the UK's economic and investment climate, with the UK consumer price index falling in December, while retail prices and retail sales data were only flat, weighing on the pound. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of the pound, the rise may be adjusted. There is little optimism in the markets ahead of the release of December jobs data tomorrow, and the pound is likely to continue its downward trend ahead of the results.
Improved economic ties between the United States and China are expected to boost Australia's economic growth. It is believed that with the help of closer ties and cooperation between China and the U.S., the prices of basic industrial metals will be boosted. Technically, AUD and NZD adjustments are expected to return to the 0.69 level after keeping an eye on the 0.6855 support range consolidation.
Dollar to yen
The global trade climate has improved and investment climate has warmed up. U.S. economic data growth, Dow Jones futures rose, the United States. If U.S. economic data continues to disappoint markets this week, Dow futures will fall. In addition, the Bank of Japan interest rate, generally in the interest rate before the bearish yen. But it's worth noting that the USDJPY often reverses after a monetary decision or press conference.
The U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar after the deal was signed and oil prices rose. Oil prices are expected to continue to rise on the back of sentiment in the Middle East and oil supply news, while the USDCAD correction widened and could test 1.3025 and 1.3015 support.
US crude oil futures
Global trade deal sealed short interest. In addition, tensions in the Middle East, the supply of crude oil decreased, the news affected the price of crude oil rose. If risk aversion rises, bullish crude oil prices. Technically, refer to $58.50 and $58.35 support, up to $59.65 and $60.00 resistance.
US economic growth, Dow futures trend up, bearish for gold. But with tensions in the Middle East, gold prices upward. If the tensions ease, gold and silver will fall as Dow futures rise. Gold price volatility is recommended. If gold surges in response to unexpected events, it is recommended to maintain high altitude gold. Significant resistance, $1, 585 and $1, 600, respectively.
U.S. Dow future
Market Close today
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support Fed Beige Book reported moderate economic growth, a gloomy outlook for investors and bullish the bitcoin price. Technically, the next target would look at US9175. Keep watching the Dow and global stocks market. If the global stock market fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend as the gold price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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