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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 22
Personal opinions today:
US President attended the international financial forum yesterday, he said the US economy could continue to grow. Meanwhile, US President Trump said the Fed should consider cutting interest rates to coincide with the U.S. economic recovery. Trump's remarks focused on economic and international trade relations, without mentioning the situation in the Middle East or other political issues, to ease investment tensions. Dow futures rose, gold prices fell from high.
In European trading today, Bank of England President speech and U.K. January CBI industrial orders. In addition, the focus is on the Canadian dollar. Canada releases its December CPI tonight. Then, the Bank of Canada announced the interest rate decision and press conference. Tomorrow, US API crude oil stocks change. The crude oil inventory affects the crude oil price and indirectly affects the Canadian dollar.
[Important financial data and events]
note: * is important
15:40 Bank of England President speech ***
19:00 UK January CBI Industrial Orders *
21:30 Canadian December CPI **
22:00 FHFA House Price Index **
23:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision ***
23:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales **
The next day 00:15 Bank of Canada press conference ***
The next day 05:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***
Today, no Eurozone data releases, investors waiting for the European Central Bank monetary decision tomorrow night. If there are no other contingencies, it would believe the euro could test 1.1065 or 1.1055 support before the ECB decision. The European central bank is expected to keep interest rates and monetary policy unchanged, and the ECB's economic outlook is expected to be optimistic. In addition, expectations of a month-on-month increase in the Eurozone preliminary PMI for January on Friday are bullish for the Euro, which is expected to rebound from lows.
Pound to dollar
The U.K. unemployment rate was unchanged in December and jobless claims fell. The jobs data improved and the pound rebounded from lows as high as 1.3080 yesterday. The market watches Bank of England President speech, explaining the Bank of England's monetary policy orientation on the Brexit at the end of this month, believes to continue to limit the rise of the pound. The UK's political and trade stance after Brexit. Watch for the pound to test the 1.29 level again.
Technically, the Australian and New Zealand dollars continued to adjust, breaking through the 0.6845 support level. Australia's economic losses were much higher than expected after the market became overly concerned about the country's wildfires. In addition, the US President said that in order to maintain international trade negotiations, tariffs already imposed will not be removed. The remarks did not mention any stimulus measures, indirectly bearish for the Australian dollar. Believe that the New Zealand dollar trend continues to follow the Australian dollar trend.
Dollar to yen
The Japanese yen was bearish ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision, but the dollar reversed course against the yen after the decision and comments from the BoJ governor. Markets are looking ahead to Friday's CPI results from Japan, with the dollar currently expected to settle at 110.25 or 110.35 resistance before testing 109.75 or 109.65 support.
The U.S. dollar remained steady against the Canadian dollar, trading in a tight range as the Bank of Canada set interest rates and markets looked to the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and economic outlook. In addition, the market to watch crude oil inventories change, crude oil price performance, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. Looking forward to the Bank's monetary policy and economic outlook, the Canadian dollar. USDCAD is expected to test 1.3045 or 1.3035 support.
US crude oil futures
The US President's remarks yesterday focused on his economic stance and did not stir any political tensions. Risk aversion is not rising, crude oil prices are lower. The market looks ahead to tomorrow's U.S. API crude oil inventory results. Technically, refer to $57.75 and $57.55 support, up to $59 resistance.
Yesterday, the US President did not comment on the situation in the Middle East, mainly on the global economy and trade, gold prices high adjustment. Technically, gold prices are recommended to remain high. Short-term resistance at $1,563 or $1,565. In the event of an emergency, refer to significant resistance at $1, 585 or $1, 600.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Yesterday, the US President made remarks on the economy and trade, without any negative market sentiment. Dow futures recovered from losses. Technically, an adjustment of more than 23.6 percent is possible to further down the adjustment wave of 50 percent, 29100 support. Note the 29355 or 29405 resistance in the short term.
9025 / 9175 resistance
8250 / 8000 support Dow futures were the first to fall on fears of stoking tensions, with investors locking in profits to unwind their positions in Asian trading and risk aversion rising. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. It is the same trend with the gold price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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