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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 3
Personal opinions today:
The U.S. Labour force typically slows after the December economic and consumer cycle and season. Coupled with the global outbreak of pneumonia in recent months, the outlook for the global economy has slowed, indirectly affecting the U.S. economic growth. Markets will be watching closely this week for U.S. ADP private-sector job data and U.S. official non-farm payrolls. The market now expects U.S. ADP job numbers to fall to 155,000, with limited non-farm payrolls expected to end up at the same level or lower than the U.S. ADP job number in January. Investors are already concerned about expectations and lack of investment appetite, with Dow futures expected to move down in line with global equities. Commodity demand fell, bearish commodity currencies and oil prices. Capital may flow to gold and the Japanese yen are expected to continue.
In European trading, we are watching the final reading of manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in January. In the evening, the U.S. Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI for January was even more noteworthy. If the U.S. data beat market expectations, it could lead to short-term volatility in the U.S. dollar and Dow futures. However, the overall investment outlook, the dollar index and Dow futures rose limit.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
09:30 China manufacturing PMI for January **
16:55 German manufacturing PMI final for January ***
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final for January **
17:30 UK manufacturing PMI for January ***
22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI final for January ***
23:00 U.S. construction spending in December *
23:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for January **
The Euro and Pound rose as British prime minister Boris Johnson brought a positive attitude to the Brexit as the UK actively dealt with the deal, boosting investor confidence. In Europe today, investors watched for the final reading on manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone in January. The market is bullish on the Euro. More important to see tonight's U.S. economic data performance, It could possible to a bullish dollar, bearish Euro trend.
Pound to dollar
Britain has officially left the European Union, entering a period of transition from the EU. The British prime minister Boris Johnson has addressed the nation on Brexit, making positive remarks about the prospects for resolving a trade deal with the European Union. Technically, sterling 1.3200 above test important resistance. If U.S. economic data beat market expectations tonight, it is likely to be bullish for the dollar and bearish for the pound.
RBA rate has a monetary decision, the market is expected to keep rates unchanged. But at the end of last year, the RBA chairman said he intended to cut rates, lowering the target rate to 0.5%. Short-term Australian dollar interest rate futures suggest the RBA is expected to cut rates in June. If the RBA keeps rates on hold and signals an optimistic economic outlook, the Australian dollar has a chance to rebound from its lows against the greenback. Technically, the reference Australian dollar's 5-year low against the U.S. dollar is 0.6668. If not lost and rebound, AUDUSD looks up to 0.6755 and 0.6800
Dollar to yen
Global stock markets were bearish as financial institutions assessed first-quarter economic expectations for a drop. Markets will be watching tonight's U.S. economic data and will be more focused on a number of U.S. economic data this week. Technically, I recommended keeping an eye on Dow futures. If Dow futures fall, the USDJPY moves downward further.
Financial institutions evaluated the global economic slowdown in the first quarter, the demand for crude oil products fell, crude oil prices fell, indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. OPEC members are currently studying the timing of its meeting to discuss oil supplies. If there is no intention to reduce production, crude oil prices continue to decline trend, are expected to further bearish the Canadian dollar. Short-term focus on the performance of the U.S. manufacturing PMI tonight, indirectly affecting the dollar volatility. In addition, it is recommended to pay close attention to crude oil price fluctuations and operate to trade the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Financial institutions are assessing signs of a slowdown in the global economy and OPEC members and non-members have no intention of cutting output. That, combined with a drop in seasonal demand for crude, pushed prices lower. Short-term focus on tonight's U.S. data indirectly affected the price volatility. Technically, $50.35 and $50.05 first target support. However, the factors mentioned above have not been resolved, and crude oil prices are expected to continue their downward trend.
A slowing global economy and looser monetary policy have the opportunity to push up gold prices. Eye on the U.S. manufacturing PMI tonight is also a cause for concern, and how it affects gold price volatility. If U.S. data is weak and Dow futures fall, gold has an opportunity to continue rising. It is believed that due to the global economic problems, the short-term gold price adjustment decline is limited.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Financial institutions predicted a slowdown in the global economy in the first quarter and believed dow futures were bearish. If U.S. economic data disappointed investors tonight, Dow futures will continue to fall. With the end of the financial reporting period for U.S. corporations, it is worth keeping an eye out for seasonally adjusted factors. Dow futures are in a downward adjustment cycle and are expected to test the key support level for the 28130 targets.
9575 / 9800 resistance
9050 / 8800 support
Most financial institutions forecast the global economic slowdown in the first quarter. Dow futures and Asian stock markets trading lower. Keep watching the Dow future and global stocks market indexes keeping downtrend, the bitcoin price could up.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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