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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 11
Personal opinions today:
Global financial markets have been volatile on Monday. US President Trump has proposed economic and fiscal policies after US Treasury yields tumbled and Dow Jones futures and global stock markets fell on the impact of a new pneumonia outbreak. Dow Jones futures rallied more than a thousand points yesterday and global equity markets steadied. U.S. Treasury yields also edged higher, and after the dollar index and Dow Jones futures rose, investors took advantage to buy the dollar and Dow component stocks, sending stocks higher and gold prices lower. The dollar index rebounded from below 95 to 96, falling against the greenback across the board. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar recovered 104.65, rising to 105. European currencies and commodity currencies are generally fell, the Euro against the dollar to see 1.13, the pound fell to the 1.28 level. The pound fell more than 300 points against the dollar, compared with 200 points against the Euro at the start of the week.
Today's market is mainly focused on the UK budget 2020 and the U.S. CPI in February, the pound and the dollar index to be watching today. In addition, the EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook and OPEC releases its monthly report, which could lead to big swings in oil prices and Dow Jones futures.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
Daylight saving time begun in the United States
17:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in January * *
17:30 UK January trade balance **
19:30 UK budget 2020 * * *
20:30 U.S CPI for February * * *
21:00 EIA releases monthly energy outlook * * *
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change * *
To be confirmed OPEC monthly crude market report * * *
Yesterday, the eurozone announced Q4 GDP revision, slightly beating market expectations. But investors aware ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision. Investors expect they would follow the federal cut interest rates or issues other fiscal policy to make the euro weakened. In addition, the dollar index rebounded, the Euro against the dollar to expand the downside. Yesterday, it was estimated that if the euro/dollar moves from the recent low of 1.1095 to the peak of 1.1495, the 50% target would be 1.1295. Over the next two days, if the dollar continues to rise, the Euro will fall to 62% against the dollar with a target of 1.1245 and extended to 1.1200 support. The U.S CPI will be in the spotlight tonight.
The pound to the dollar
The pound has fallen as trade talks with the EU continue to stall. In addition, the pound dollar yesterday followed the euro/dollar downtrend, the pound/dollar adjusted above the original target of 1.2985, as low as 1.2865. Believe it, investors focus on the UK's industrial and manufacturing output, the trade balance in January and the key focus of the UK's 2020 budget, ahead of the pound’s long position rally. Current estimates suggest that a possible proposal in today's 2020 budget could boost the pound. Test a target, 1.3005 to 1.3020 resistance.
Australian dollar/U.S. dollar
Global new pneumonia spreads, affecting the global economic growth in Australia, which relies on exports of industrial metals, investors reacted gloomily as economic losses were not assessed. Technical trend, the Australian dollar against the US dollar after the limit of 0.66 resistance range, and under to 0.6525 support also lost, watching for next important support level 0.6455. This position is also near the recent adjustment of 62%, worth noting. If the U.S. CPI beats market expectations tonight and the U.S. dollar index rises, the AUDUSD could breach 0.6445, then test the next level of 0.6405 support.
Dollar to yen
Global stocks rose, especially Dow futures rallied more than a thousand points, the Nikkei index followed, and the dollar rose to 105 yen. If the U.S. CPI beats market expectations tonight and the dollar index and Dow futures rise, the dollar could see resistance to 105.65 or 105.95 yen. However, it remains to be seen that 106 major resistance points have been broken. Temporary Japanese corporate fiscal year, some funds may still return to Japan. The yen is being watched closely to see if the Bank of Japan will more monetary easing before the next week's rate decision. Please pay close attention!
US dollar/Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices bounced back above $33 and the Canadian dollar rose, at one point falling as low as $1.36. But the dollar index rebounded, limiting losses. Yesterday, it was estimated that USDCAD could technically test resistance at the 1.3700 level. If crude oil gains are limited, the U.S. dollar is believed to remain stuck between $1.37 and $1.3680 against the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. CPI. Wait for the US data, then seek any breakthrough. There is an opportunity to go down and test 1.3615 or 1.3605 support.
US crude oil futures
Energy ministers and executives from major oil producers have pledged to stabilize oil demand and bullish the crude oil prices after a meeting. Although API crude oil inventories increased substantially, the price of crude oil has fallen, the price attracted buying, crude oil prices continue to rise. Technically, the initial $35 has been successful, and it is estimated that a further $40 - $45 oil equilibrium price will be tested. Most crude oil organizations and financial institutions also forecast that crude oil prices will average between $40 and $45 for the whole year of 2020. It could be the target.
Gold prices fell sharply as global equity and financial markets rallied, breaking through $1680 support and trading as low as $1642 yesterday. It said yesterday that if Dow futures and global equities market continues to rebound, the gold prices could see support at $1,650 to $1,648. For now, investors are expecting the release tonight of U.S. CPI to be bearish on stocks and the dollar. Combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by many Central Banks around the world, the gold price at or below $1,650, it still has support.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures hit their target of 25,000 for the first time yesterday after the US President's comments on fiscal policy boosted stocks, but fell short of the target resistance level. The US CPI is released tonight. Dow futures could reach 25,000 if they beat expectations. Instead, look down 24005 to 23745 for support.
8445/ 8550 resistance
7850 / 7655 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. The stock fell sharply, Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply. Hopefully, the stock market going stable, then the cryptocurrencies demand increased, then the bitcoin price would rebound.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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