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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 30
Personal opinions today:
The U.S. House of Representatives passed more than $2 trillion emergency fund bill, and the US President signed the bill into law, which had boosted global stocks. But U.S. economic and job data were weak, and investment confidence in dollar assets fell. The dollar index fell, while European currencies, commodity currencies and gold prices rose. The Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in March amid expectations of a slowdown in crude oil demand and a drop in U.S. futures prices. U.S. crude oil futures, which had dipped as low as $21.65, continued to trade below the 20-hour moving average.
In Europe today, the market is focusing on the UK consumer credit in February, the Eurozone industrial and economic sentiment index in March and the Eurozone consumer confidence index in March, and the German consumer price index in March. In addition, this week's U.S. data forecast is weak, especially the ADP and non-farm payroll. Investors are still likely to see declines in the dollar index and U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday's ADP jobs data release. European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold and silver prices have a chance to rise. Instead, crude oil still has a chance to fall, testing a key $20 support level.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
15:00 Swiss KOF economic leading indicator *
16:30 UK February consumer credit * *
17:00 Eurozone industrial and economic sentiment index ***
17:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index final in March ***
20:00 German CPI in March * * *
22:00 US February existing home sales index * *
22:30 US Dallas fed's index of business activity **
Next day 05:00 New Zealand financial statement * *
Next day 06:30 RBA deputy governor a speech * *
Last week, the US jobless claims rose sharply, amid expectations that a weak report on the U.S. ADP and non-farm payroll would bearish US consumer spending. Safe-haven flows out of the dollar and dollar-country bonds sent the dollar down and the Euro up against the dollar. Separately, the Bank of England remains interest rates and refrained from further easing, the British pound rebounded. The Euro rose in line with the British pound. But by the end of the week, some investors had liquidated their positions, and the Euro’s gains had narrowed. Technically, in the Euro/dollar 4-hour chart, the trend is testing rebound 50% resistance level 1.1065, which is now one of the support levels. On the upside, Euro/dollar resistance was at 1.1165 and 1.1180
The British pound to the dollar
Last week, many factors boosted the pound sharply. Ahead of this week's US jobs data, believe the dollar fell, bullish British pounds. Technically, the pound continued to maintain a 4 - hour moving average. If the British pound/USD remains above support at $1.2305, it would believe that the pound would test the resistance at $1.2515 at 61.8% rebound. If it breaks through the resistance level, it could test the next level to 1.2730.
Australian dollar/US dollar
US dollar fell, bullish the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar against the US dollar breaks 50% rebound at 0.6095 resistance level, has been on the test next resistance at 0.6185. With weak U.S. economic and job data expected this week, the dollar's decline is likely to widen, the AUDUSD would test the resistance at 0.6230.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and the Nikkei fell, while the dollar followed the yen lower. The US jobless claims rose sharply, the Michigan consumer confidence index fell in March, investors estimated weak U.S. economic and job data, dollar assets and the dollar fell, and the dollar broke through support against the yen at 107.70. Believe, if Dow futures continue to fall, the dollar/yen below the test 106 level. Technically, the adjusted wave 50% which is 106.40 and the next support level is 105.20.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4005/1.3985 support level
Last week, the U.S. dollar fell on weak data from the United States, with USDCAD successfully testing the $1.40 mark, which had seen $1.3925 lowest. With weak U.S. jobs data expected this week, the dollar's decline is likely to widen and the USDCAD could test further support at 1.39 level again. It is worth noting, however, that the downward trend in crude oil prices is likely to continue, with the Canadian dollar expected to see limited gains and more likely to fall with oil prices, with the U.S. dollar still having an opportunity to test the $1.41 level against the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
As global crude oil demand slows, Saudi oil producers are in no mood to off the price cuts, and the price of crude continues to limit $25 resistance. U.S. crude futures are currently estimated to be between $22 and $20 with buying support. But crude oil prices are likely to fall further this week on expectations of weak U.S. PMI and job data. Long position investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, waiting for the release of data this week, test the lower crude oil prices.
The federal reserve introduced unlimited funds and the jobless claims rose sharply. The coronavirus outbreak in the United States, more than in Europe and Asia. For some time to come, U.S. PMI, job data and other consumption data are expected to be weak, and the federal reserve has added other measures, which will affect the opportunity for the dollar to fall and may stimulate the gold price to rise. At present, it is recommended to watch the price of gold and silver adjust down together. Early estimates suggest gold prices tried to adjust earlier this week, testing support around $1,600. Silver also moved in sync with gold, watch out for a correction to 38.2% support at $13.56.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Despite most of the central bank bailouts and monetary easing around the world, the outbreak is on the rise in the United States. Dow futures fell as investors continued to bet against the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Investors continue to worry that the coronavirus outbreak has not abated in the United States and Europe, believing that Dow futures have limited recovery. Plus, expectations for weak U.S. jobs data this week, note that Dow futures continue to test lows. If the adjusted wave estimation is used, 20755 and 20435 are the initial technical support levels.
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If break $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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