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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 2
Personal opinions today:
The COVID 19 infections in Europe and the United States, the number has risen sharply. The United States surpassing the world becomes the top number of cases. The outbreak has unnerved the global economy, with U.S. Dow futures down over 1,000 points to as low as 20,796 last night. The decline eased before the close, but it was still down 976 points from the previous close. Stocks fell in Europe and the United States, while gold and silver price rose. The global economy, though, has been hit by the outbreak and demand for oil has slowed. Saudi oil producers are intent on increasing output and maintaining a price war, but the presidents of Russia and the United States have spoken on the phone in anticipation of the two countries working together to reduce production and stabilize prices. With the price of crude falling to the cost of Russian producers, the Russian President said he was willing to discuss cutting production with local producers. U.S. oil futures rose from below $20 to $21.5 after the confirmation but still failed to break above the previous high of $22. Believe that if more oil producers are willing to cut production, crude prices could rise.
Today's biggest focus was on U.S. job data, the US companies’ layoffs number in March and jobless claims change. If layoffs and job losses continue to rise, short-term bearish Dow futures and global stocks. Risk-off factors, gold, silver prices, and the Japanese yen, but bearish crude oil prices.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
14:00 Nationwide house price index in March **
14:39 Swiss CPI in March* *
17:00 Eurozone PPI in February**
19:30 US Challenger companies layoffs in March * * *
20:30 US trade account in February *
20:30 US jobless claims change* * *
22:00 US factory orders in February * *
Eurozone and Germany Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in March, bearish for the Euro. The Euro fell as low as 1.0905 to the dollar after U.S. data showed the ADP payrolls fell less than expected in March. Ahead of tonight's report on U.S. initial jobless claims, the dollar is expected to narrow gains, with the Euro on track for 50% or 61.8% of a tentative correction at 1.0970 and 1.0985 resistance levels, respectively.
The pound to the dollar
U.S. data showing ADP payroll fell less than expected in March bullish the dollar. In addition, Eurozone and UK data are still weak, limited the pound to the dollar gains. Technical resistance to the dollar fell to 1.2460. But fundamentals lead the trend, with advice on U.S. jobless claims. Believe before the announcement, the GBPUSD is expected to test the 1.2440 or 1.2460 resistance level.
Australian dollar/US dollar
The AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.6035 last night as the U.S. manufacturing PMI and ADP payroll better than expected. The Australian dollar is expected to rise against the U.S. dollar before the U.S. initial jobless claims data, but whether it can test the resistance of 0.6170 or 0.6185 depends on the U.S. data and the dollar's decline.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and the Nikkei tend always to lead the dollar-yen movements and volatility. Yesterday, when Dow futures fell and the Nikkei fell together, the dollar-yen test the 107 level, falling as low as 106.90. Technically, if we calculate the USDJPY correction range of 50% in March, the first support level target is 106.40 and the next level is 105.20. If U.S. job data is weak tonight, Dow futures fall and the dollar's losses widen, the dollar-yen could test the above support level.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4145/1.4125 support level
The crude oil prices, indirect impact on the performance of the Canadian dollar. In this case, USDCAD continued to trade between the 1.40 level and the 1.42 level. In addition, the U.S. data will also affect the U.S. dollar to the Canadian dollar. Believe the next test of support at 1.4145 or 1.4125 could come tonight ahead of the US initial jobless claims data.
US crude oil futures
As the global economy slows, demand for crude oil is slowing. Saudi oil producers continued to sell crude at reduced prices and announced an increase in output. It is believed that US crude oil prices will continue to be limited to a significant $25 resistance range. The global outbreak has not seen improvement, It would continue to bearish crude oil prices. Technically, watch out for wave resistance at $21.90 and $22.20, respectively. Initial key support at $19.95 and $19.65.
It is estimated that if investors expect weak data in Europe and the United States and economic slowdown, watch for gold and silver prices could rise. Technically, the gold price has rebounded sharply after hitting $1,567 then hit the first level of resistance at $1,600. Most of the trade positions seem to trade between $1570 to $1600. If break the resistance, it could see the first significant resistance at $1,613.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures continued to fall as investors downplayed the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings amid a pandemic spreads in the US. Believe if Dow futures short-term rebound, strength, and expansion are limited. Note tonight's U.S. data on the number of jobless claims. If the data beats expectations, Dow futures could extend the rally. If the adjusted wave is used to estimate, the support level is 20755 and 20435 respectively.
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If the price breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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