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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 3
Personal opinions today:
US initial jobless claims rose to 6.64 million last week from 3.3 million in the previous week. After the data, the Dow futures had jumped, because investors had already priced in before the announcement. However, in the face of the outbreak in the United States, business activity is facing a slowdown, the number of jobs and layoffs rose. The U.S. nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate are likely to be over market expectations tonight, and it will be limited Dow futures gains. If Dow futures and the dollar fall, expect gold and silver prices to rise, the Japanese yen to become a safe haven and the USDJPY fall again.
Crude oil demand slowdown in the face of the global economic crisis. The United States and Russia Presidents agreed to cut output and were in talks with Saudi Arabia's oil group to cut output and keep prices stable. Crude Oil’s future for May delivery in the United States rose to a 20-day moving average of $27 after the news was confirmed, followed by profit unwinding before the European market close, as crude oil prices fell.
Today focus on the final reading of Europe's services PMI for March and Eurozone retail sales for February. Investors have expected which is weak data, with short Euro’s positions dominating the market. Investors also priced in weak U.S. jobs data tonight, which was bearish on Dow futures and global stocks in the short term, and bearish on the dollar. If the dollar fell, would be bullish on gold, silver price and the yen in the face of rising risk aversion, but bearish on crude oil.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance
09:45 China's Caixin services PMI **
15:50 French services PMI final * *
15:55 German services PMI final * *
16:00 Eurozone services PMI final **
16:30 UK services PMI **
17:00 Eurozone retail sales ***
20:30 US unemployment rate * * *
20:30 US non-farm payrolls * * *
21:45 US Markit final services PMI * *
22:00 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI * * *
Economic data in Europe in March will be affected by the pandemic, with weak economic performance. Europe's final services PMI for March and Eurozone retail sales for February. The Euro fell as investors prepared ahead of the weak data. The Euro is expected to rise against the dollar after European data and the release of U.S. non-farm job data tonight. Technical analysis, 1.0820 or 1.0805 support, 20-hour average line resistance and rebound wave 23.6% resistance to 1.0875 and 1.0890.
Eurozone and UK data were weak, with pound limited to a range of $1.2440 to $1.2460 resistance. Technically, GBPUSD resistance was reduced to 1.2460, from the fundamentals of the dominant trend, advised to watch tonight's US non-farm payroll results. If the U.S. jobs data is weaker than expected, the pound could see resistance at $1.2440 or $1.2460. The pound is expected to test support against the dollar ahead of Eurozone and UK data in the afternoon.
Australian dollar/US dollar
Investors are anticipating a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in March tonight. They expect the Australian dollar to still be up against the U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. data. In addition, the RBA will have an interest rate decision meeting next Tuesday, and investors may avoid buying the Australian dollar ahead of its policy meeting. Believe that the Australian and New Zealand dollars to maintain the range.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Dow futures and the Nikkei tend to lead dollar-yen movements and volatility. Investors can look to Dow futures and the Nikkei to catch the dollar's rise against the yen. Technically, the first support target is 106.40 if the dollar/yen correction in March is calculated at 50%. If U.S. data is very weak, U.S. jobs data will fall much more than expected tonight, dow futures and the dollar will extend their losses, and the dollar could test the aforementioned 106.40 support level against the yen. But for now, watch for 107.35 and 107.15 support.
US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4065/1.4050 support level
Crude oil prices rose and fell, indirectly affecting the performance of the Canadian dollar. In this case, USDCAD continued to trade ranging between the 1.40 level and the 1.42 level. In addition, the U.S. data will also affect the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. Believe the USDCAD could test the 1.40 level ahead of the US non-farm payroll for March due tonight. But a subsequent drop in oil prices could send the U.S. dollar higher against the Canadian dollar.
US oil futures
As the global economy slows, demand for crude oil is slowing. The presidents of Russia and the United States have held talks on stabilizing oil prices, stressing the need to keep prices above $20. Believe that US oil future prices continue to maintain an important support level of $20. In the afternoon, the market continued to watch for oil group news, lifting U.S. oil futures, with an initial target of $26 - $27.
Gold and silver prices rose in recent days, as expected by this analysis, on expectations of weak data in Europe and the United States, as countries continued to expand in volume. Technically, gold has rebounded sharply after hitting $1,567, with large institutional investors buying gold at $1,580 and below, looking for the first level of resistance at $1,600 and above the first significant resistance at $1,613. The rally slowed after last night's high of $1,617. As has been the case in the past, speculators used expectations of U.S. jobs data to push up the gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices are believed to have formally slowed in the wake of tonight's US non-farm payroll or US non-manufacturing PMI, with the recent rally likely to reverse.
Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. non-farm payrolls and non-manufacturing PMI in March release tonight are worth noting as expectations for the data are weak and Dow futures are expected to test lows first. If the golden rate estimation, the support is at 20755 and reference last week lowest 20645.
7000/ 7230 resistance
5650 / 5500 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $7000 resistance. If it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $7230 or approach to $10,000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices
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