Personal opinions today:
European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision tonight, and followed by a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. The ECB has been widely expected to announce a new round of quantitative easing (QE), if announced immediately when the interest rate decision, it is believed that the euro will fall. If the European central bank press conference to announce that there is an opportunity to delay the implementation of the policy, the euro has an opportunity to rise, so the implementation time is the focus, the longer the implementation time, bullish euro differences level.
The ECB news conference was accompanied by U.S. jobless claims and durable goods orders. Data show that the dollar values, affects the dollar against other currencies and gold price. Durable goods orders, in particular, could influence U.S. second-quarter GDP tomorrow and the Fed’s interest rate cut decision next week. Please take note.
[Important financial data and events]
11:05 RBA chairman Stephen lowy speaks
16:00, Germany IFO business climate index for July
18:00 The CBI retail sales for July
19:45 ECB monetary policy decision
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims
20:30 U.S. durable goods orders for June
20:30 ECB President Mario draghi holds a press conference
23:00 U.S. Kansas city fed's manufacturing output index
Today suggestion :
Today, the ECB announced the monetary decision, the market widely believe that the ECB may start QE policy again, bearish euro. If the meeting to expand monetary policy, the negative and bearish the euro. But delaying implementation could boost the euro. The ECB monetary policy will indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend. For Euro if break 1.1155 resistance its would rise in confidence in the euro. Probably test resistance to 1.1175 or 1.1190. On the contrary, the euro fall and break 1.1105 supports, which represents the sentiment for euro downtrend. Today, the U.S. data is also indirectly affecting the performance of the euro, please noted.
Britain's new prime minister has vowed not to extend the deadline for leaving the European Union by the end of October. However, most situations that a hard Brexit is most likely to cause damage to both sides. While the pound is still under pressure, there are opportunities for it to fall and test 1.2380 support. But for now, the market is watching U.S. durable goods orders today and second-quarter GDP data tomorrow, limited pound losses. Technically, the pound is likely to test resistance at 1.2505 or 1.2520. Important support bit below 1.2425.
The market is watching for U.S. job losses and durable goods orders today, and forecast for the second-quarter U.S. GDP tomorrow. Prior to the release of the data, the Australian dollar was expected to moderate its losses against the U.S. dollar, consolidating in a support of 0.6970 or 0.6955. In addition, the trade consultations in Shanghai next week, believe the news bullish Australian dollars. If the trade talks can make new progress and deal, the US President does not make negative comments, bullish AUDUSD. Also, the indirect impact of the New Zealand dollar in same way.
US corporate earnings over market expected and the federal reserve will cut interest at the end of the month. Expectations for U.S. durable goods orders today and second-quarter GDP growth tomorrow were better than expected, bullish the Dow. The Nikkei keeps rising, which is expected to lead the us dollar to rise against the yen. Technically, if the Dow and Nikkei continue to rise, it could bullish the USDJPY to 108.45 and 108.60 resistance. If it finally break through the resistance, it may need to good result in China-US trade negotiations.
No Canadian data were released during the week, and estimates were influenced indirectly by the dollar and crude oil prices. Weak U.S. economic data could add to the Canadian dollar gain. Otherwise, expect the Canadian dollar to fall. The current technical analysis estimates that the adjustment wave head is 1.3175 or 1.3205. Note today's U.S. economic data performance and crude oil prices, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
The China-US trade consultation will be held in Shanghai, China next week. Oil demand is still suffering from a weak economy and bad news. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to consolidate above $54. Early next week, the us trade secretary will visit China and the trade talks will make progress. An eventual interest rate cut by the federal reserve could boost expectations of a global economic recovery and lead to higher oil prices. If the ECB executed the QE tonight, it could boost oil prices. In technical terms, U.S. crude is expected to remain above support at 54.90 and is expected to test resistance at 57.15.
The fed is currently expected to cut rates by only 25 basis points by the end of July, with chance about 78 percent. The fed's rate cut is expected to be modest, and gold prices have limited room to rise. Unless there is negative sentiment in the markets or the ECB's policy stimulus on a large expansion of QE, that will boost gold prices. Otherwise, gold prices are expected to have limited upside. U.S. economic data this week will also be key, with gold prices likely to widen their correction if the dollar rises further. The current recommendation focuses on significant support at $1411 and resistance at $1430.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. corporate earnings beat expectations, bullish Dow. The next two weeks, continue to corporate earnings release, pay attention to the stock market fluctuations. The federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, with strong corporate earnings, could be bullish Dow. Sino-U.S. relations improved, both officials consultations next week. Progress in trade talks early next week, when the U.S. trade secretary visits China, could improve the investment sentiment and bullish stocks. For now, keep an eye on technical support levels 27220 and 27110, with reference to resistance levels 27420 and 27610.
10150 / 10550 resistance
9650 / 9300 support
Recently here mentioning, US economy growth over expected. The Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point in this end of month, recover US dollar loss. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Crypto currencies demand declined. US data would shown stronger. Now suggestion, investors should keep watching the US data in this week to compare the market sentiment. The gold price and trends also affected the bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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