Personal opinions today:
The European central bank has announced its decision on interest rates. The central bank has left interest rates unchanged without any easing measures. The euro has stabilized. However, the UK may face hard Brexit at the end of October, and it is difficult to rise in the euro target. It may believe that the downside risks of pound and the euro. In addition, the higher the downside risk to European currencies, the dollar index rose. It could fall against other major currencies against the dollar.
Last week, the US real GDP for the second quarter beat market expectations, but still fell sharply from the previous quarter. The market generally believes that the federal reserve will meet on Thursday, the market is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Because of past market sentiment that fed rate cuts and money flowing into the gold market generally boost gold prices, Europe faces increased risks of a hard Brexit . Money flows into safe-haven assets, believe the JPY and gold prices remain stronger.
Watch for key economic data from major currency countries this week, such as Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan interest rate decision tomorrow. Eurozone economic sentiment index, consumer confidence index, German CPI, US core price index and consumer confidence index. That was followed by other important economic data on Wednesday that affected currency volatility. Since then, it maybe various major markets and currencies have varying degrees of volatility, which is more likely to affect the US ADP payroll and officials non-farm payrolls data released within the week, the trend of the U.S. dollar, please note.
[Important financial data and events]
15:00 Spain CPI for July
16:00 Italy PPI for June
16:30 U.K. BOE mortgage lending permit for June
22:30 US Dallas fed business activity index for July
The next day Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan's interest rate decision
The European central bank stopped short of starting a broad monetary policy, but the euro's gains were held back by dovish comments from the central bank's governor. Ahead of U.S. jobs and interest rate decisions this week, the euro zone's economic and inflation data and jobs data are better than expected. Technically, the euro still has an opportunity to test the 1.1165 to 1.1180 resistance range. Support bits can be referred to 1.1120 and 1.1105. If the euro zone economy and inflation weaken more than market expectations, or the euro could test a pre-1.1095 low or below. It is worth noting that the Swiss franc is often affected by the trend of the euro. When investing in the euro, watch the Swiss franc move in step with the euro.
The British prime minister has said in numerous speeches that a deal will be reached by the end of October, the deadline for leaving the European Union. However, the market generally believes that there is still no consensus on the disputes and differences between the two sides, and it is estimated that a hard brexit is likely in the end. If Britain were to force a reversal of its previous agreement with the EU, the pound would come under pressure. Last week, this analysis pointed to an opportunity for the pound to dip below support of 1.2380. Currently bearish for pound, has broken through the support level. If the Brexit news does not improve, pound is heading for $1.22 level. Currently refer to technical, 1.2415 and 1.2440 resistance, support levels 1.2335 and 1.2310.
The preliminary GDP value of the second quarter of the United States, better than the market expectations, the U.S. dollar rose, the Australian dollar fell, lost 0.6955 support, and then tested 0.6900. A break above 0.6900 will take us to the next reference support level of 0.6870. Markets are looking ahead to trade talks. If positive news continues on Wednesday, it could boost the Australian dollar and indirectly boost the New Zealand dollar.
Japan Nikkei index fell as Asian markets opened, while the dollar followed suit against the yen. In addition, the market focus on Japan unemployment rate and the bank of Japan's interest rate decision tomorrow, the market adjusted to short yen. In addition, China - Us trade talks, the outlook is not clear, investors to rectify the position, and then make arrangements. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 108.05 support. Recommend focus on the central bank has the policy
, then makes a new trend.
There were no Canada data at the start of the week, and the market was waiting for a comparison of U.S. and Canada employment data. It is estimated that the trend of the Canadian dollar may be indirectly affected by the trend of the U.S. dollar and the price of crude oil. Current technical analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3175 or 1.3205. If crude oil prices rise, the USDCAD could test support of 1.3125 or 1.3105.
US crude oil futures
Markets were disappointed that the ECB did not start its quantitative easing. U.S. GDP was widely expected to fall less than expected in the second quarter, while the federal reserve's cut in interest rates to 25 basis points failed to stimulate demand for oil and crude futures prices failed to lift. The U.S. - China trade talks are expected to change negative sentiment and boost crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices are expected to consolidate, with U.S. crude futures holding above support at 54.85 and looking to test resistance again at 57.15.
Global central Banks are maintaining quantitative, understanding the federal reserve is likely to cut interest rates this week, boosting gold prices. However, gold's gains were limited by the dollar after the U.S. reported a smaller than expected 1.8 percent drop in second-quarter GDP. Gold prices are expected to have limited upside, with an opportunity to test 1411 support after the fed meeting. Current recommendations focus on important $1,427 and $1,430 resistance.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow future losses after the first reading of U.S. second-quarter GDP beat expectations. Fed may cut rate expected to be limited, investors are focused on improving U.S. jobs data and U.S. -China relations, hoping the trade talks will revive the investment climate and lift stocks. Currently, keep an eye on technical support 27090 and 27010, and resistance levels for reference 27345 and 27420.
9900 / 10250 resistance
9350 / 9000 support
US economy growth over expected. US real GDP over 1.8% expected, the market expected Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point in this end of month, US dollar gains. Now, it is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Recommend keep watching the gold price volatility how affected the bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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