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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 14
Personal opinions today:
Last night, after facing a $120 billion government budget deficit in July, the US President abruptly extended additional tariffs on some Chinese imports from September 1 to December. It involves consumer goods, consumer electronics and personal health products. And the U.S. trade department called the Chinese trade minister to confirm the trade talks scheduled for September. In addition, U.S. CPl rose 0.3 percent in July, meeting market expectations, boosting investment sentiment. After the good news, Dow up more than 500 points and global stocks followed. Hedging money flowed out of gold and the yen. Gold price plunged as much as $50 to as low as $1,480. The stock market rebounded, with the USDJPY trading at higher 106.95 last night. Crude oil prices rose above $55, hitting a high of $57.4, as U.S. inflation rose and U.S. - China relations improved.
Today's market focus, Germany Q2 GDP annualized figures, UK July CPI and retail price index monthly rate, the Eurozone Q2 GDP annualized rate and employment rate. The monthly rate of the US import price index for July was also noteworthy today. The data could affect U.S. retail sales for July tomorrow. An increase in the U.S. import price index would bullish the Dow and the dollar. But expect the relationship, which has just begun to improve, to continue to improve if the US President don’t makes any damaging comment.
[Important financial data and events]
10:00 China total retail sales, fixed asset investment
14:00 German GDP Q2
14:45 France CPI in July
16:30 UK CPI and Retail price for July
17:00 Eurozone Industrial Output for June
17:00 Eurozone GDP Q2
17:00 Eurozone employment rate Q2
20:30 US import price index in July
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
Today suggestion :
Germany CPl was flat yesterday, easing deflationary pressures in the Eurozone. But US CPl inflation data were in line with growth expectations. As estimated yesterday, before the release of the U.S. CPl data, the Euro's gains were capped and the Euro failed to break through the resistance between 1.1120 and 1.1235 to move to an important support level of 1.1170 in the light of market expectations of lower German and Eurozone GDP Q2. Key Q2 GDP figures for Germany and the Eurozone were released today. Basically, German Q2 GDP data directly reflect the Eurozone Q2 GDP results, which will be released later. If German Q2 GDP data beat expectations at 2 p.m., it will likely follow Eurozone Q2 GDP expectations, with the Euro likely to hit the resistance range of 1.1215 to 1.1235.
The British prime minister has insisted on a deadline of the end of October to force the EU to accept a new Brexit deal. Investors are feeling the outlook for the UK is gloomy and bearish for the pound. The expected fall in July CPI and retail price index data is expected to weigh against the pound. Both results, if better than expected, could bullish pound. Because the data can be used to forecast and trend UK retail sales for tomorrow. Today, pound can dip its low first. Technically, if the pound breaks through the support of 1.2015, the pound may go down to 1.1970, and more likely to go down to adjust the 1.1945 wave of 150%. It deserves attention. The current technical resistance can be referred to the resistance between 1.2085 and 1.2105.
Trade friction between China and the US cooled, bullish the Australian dollar, while the New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar higher. An improved investment climate will bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the Australian dollar broke through the resistance of 0.6790 usd, initially testing the resistance range of 0.6810 to 0.6825. If data and the trade tensions cool down further well, hope to explore 0.6870 important resistance. If the Australian dollar rises, it is expected NZD follow.
Trade friction between China and the United States cooled, global economic growth needs to improve, the Dow rebounded 500 points, some safe-haven funds out from the yen. The USDJPY bounced back to 106.95 from 105. For the time being the yen has evaded the 105 threshold for central bank intervention, but it is still worth being cautious and avoiding volatility. The dollar is now trading at 106 against the yen. It's worth watching Eurozone GDP figures today. Simply put, the performance of the Dow and Nikkei will affected the USDJPY .
US CPl inflation data rose in line with expectations. Estimates yesterday limited the rise in the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. CPl data and crude oil inventory results. U.S. crude oil stocks fell, crude oil prices rose, bullish the Canadian dollar. Trade relations between the U.S. and China are expected to improve, further pushing up crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD is expected to continue the adjustment target 1.3175 support range. If the USDCAD stays below 1.3245, it can still lower. The CAD more direct reference to crude oil price trend.
US crude oil futures
According to the trade war news between China and the United States, due to the extra tariffs that the US government has postponed to do in September, the US and China officials agreed to hold talks as usual in September. In addition, the US API crude oil stocks decreased, bullish crude oil prices. Yesterday, said concern about 55.20 and 55.70 resistance, break through two important resistance, now expected to explore the 57.90 resistance. But it's important to note that any comments by the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials during the evening could cause oil prices to fluctuate.
U.S. - China relations improve, Dow rebound, gold price down. Current estimates suggest gold could face resistance above $1,510 if trade relations between the U.S. and China continue to improve. Technically, the Dow and Nikkei are recommended, and if the rally continues, it could be bearish for gold price. Of course, watching German and Eurozone GDP underperform could boost gold prices. In addition, Argentina is politically unstable and its currency has plummeted. If found global stock markets fell could bullish gold prices.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
China and US have agreed to continue negotiations in September. The outlook for global economic growth should be improved. The Dow rebounded 500 points last night. Comments that the fed might consider a rate cut would add to the Dow's gains if U.S. - China relations continue to improve. Technically, the Dow broke through 25860, possibly down to adjust the wave's 25640 support. If the relationship between China and the United States is keeping good and there is no political instability in Argentina and the currency drops sharply, the Dow could see resistance of 26510 to 26650.
10850 / 11300 resistance
10250 / 9750 support
As the trade war between China and US cool down , Dow and other major stocks rebounded, hedge fund outflows from hedging market, bullish US dollar and bearish bitcoin. Recently here we mentioned, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and the bitcoin price with same direction.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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