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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 15
Personal opinions today:
Today, the focus of the U.K. July retail sales monthly rate, market expectations down, the pound has been partially down reaction yesterday. If the data are worse than market expectation, the pound could test further lows. For global financial markets, U.S. weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August, the New York Fed manufacturing index for August, retail sales and industrial output for July. These data released today could be very sensitive. Yesterday, the US stock market plunged 800 points, as the market reaction to the US economy into a global recession, US Treasury yields upside down, short-term Treasury yields lower than long-term Treasury yields. The situation happened six months ago, you can learn from it. All of this comes as the economy is expected to shrink in the next 6 to 12 months. After the US - China trade heated up, most of the data released today showed worse figures than expected in US, the market worries. If that happens, global stocks will fall, followed by crude oil prices and the dollar drop. Money flowed into safe-haven assets such as gold, the yen and industrial metals. Of course, the dollar fell, and European currencies may eventually recover from the market rally.
The dollar has fallen after a poor data and a poor data for important using to forecast economic data tomorrow. If all the data show weakness, the US President could make another speech. For example, cut interest rates or stop paying requisitioning tariffs on goods imported from China in September. If the effective boost to the stock market, long - term Treasury yields back to the right levels, the dollar rebounded, gold and yen fell, please note.
[Important financial data and events]
(Seoul stock exchange and Italy stock exchange are closed)
09:30 Australian unemployment rate in July
09:30 China housing sales prices
16:30 UK retail sales July
20:30 US Initial jobless claims
20:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August
20:30 The New York Fed manufacturing index for August
20:30 US Retail sales in July
21:15 US Industrial output for July
22:00 US Business inventory rate for June
22:00 US NAHB housing market index for August
22:30 US EIA natural gas inventories
Today suggestion :
The U.S. CPl data was in line with market growth, limiting the euro's gains. The euro moved below its key support level of 1.1170 amid expectations of lower Q2 GDP in Germany and the Eurozone. While German and Eurozone GDP was flat in the Q2, the euro fell against the dollar, once breaking 50 percent of the recent correction, supported by 1.1135, as industrial output fell sharply. If U.S. economic data weak today, the dollar's decline, may boost the euro, it is worth noting the U.S. data performance. Estimates in anticipation of weak U.S. economic data, short-term stability in the euro. One of the keys to the final decision on the euro is the performance of the US data today. In addition, the Eurozone trade balance, issues tomorrow, is still likely to limit the rise, noting resistance to 1.1175 and 1.1205.
Expectations of monthly and annual falls in UK retail sales in July weighed against the pound, which fell last night. The question is whether today's data is weaker than market expectations, giving the pound an excuse to dip lower. If the UK data is in line with market expectations, U.S. economic data will be expected to be weak today and the dollar will be expected to be stable against sterling's decline, which could lead to gains. Technically, if the pound breaks through the support of 1.2015, the pound may go down to 1.1970, and more likely to go down to adjust the 1.1945 wave. In the short term, the pound is likely to rebound as doubts about the us recession offset news of Brexit. The current technical resistance can be referred to the resistance between 1.2085 and 1.2105.
Trade friction between the us and China has cooled, although it has boosted the Australian dollar, while the New Zealand dollar has risen along with the Australian dollar. However, the U.S. economy to global economic growth recession, caused the US Treasury yields upside down. China's industrial production fell, affecting China Australia trade growth forecast fell, the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell. Fortunately, the RBA cut interest rates over the past two months, prompting unemployment rate to flatline in July and a big increase in employment, stabilizing the Australian dollar. Today, the Australian dollar trend, one of the key is the U.S. data performance. Weaker U.S. data than expected could bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the Australian dollar maintains a resistance of 0.6795 against the U.S. dollar, which could test the 0.6815 resistance range.
Today US release of a number of important data, the market expected a recession, the U.S. Treasury yields caused by the phenomenon of inversion, the Dow and the market after a larger fall, the dollar and the yen again returned to 105 level rebound. Be worth watching, today a lot of US major data. Simply, the performance wi lead the Dow and Nikkei also USDJPY. If most U.S. economic data were flat or flat today, stocks would rebound, the dollar would rise against the yen and fall against the yen. So the dollar is expected to trade more strongly against the yen today.
U.S. crude stocks fell yesterday, bearish the Canadian dollar. The market also speculated that the U.S. and global economic recession is heating up, U.S. Treasury yields are upside down and crude oil prices are falling. That the Canadian dollar tumbling to a high of 1.33. Yesterday, said if the USDCAD remains below 1.3245, the trend can still test low. The dollar is recommended against the Canadian dollar more direct reference to crude oil price trend. The main focus of today's major U.S. data performance and later on the U.S. President and the U.S. trade officials to make a speak. If the data is in line with expectations and growth, or if the President and officials show interest rate cuts, that could boost the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
The news about the trade war is due to the crude oil price news, because the US government has postponed some extra tariffs to be paid in September and the two sides have agreed to hold talks as usual in September. It's just that U.S. API inventories have increased, limiting the price of crude. But yesterday the market prepared ahead of US economic data forecast reaction, US Treasury yields upside down, market concerns about the global economic slowdown heating up. Crude oil lost $55.20 support. We are waiting to see whether U.S. economic data will deteriorate and whether U.S. bond yields will stabilize. And the evening's focus on the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials could cause crude oil prices to fluctuate. A signal from the federal reserve that it will consider a rate cut next month could help buoy oil prices.
U.S. Treasury yields fell and stocks tumbled in anticipation of weak U.S. data today, providing another excuse to push gold prices higher. Gold prices, which are technically based on the performance of the Dow and Nikkei, are likely to be bearish if the rally continues. If US economic data remains strong, improving US treasury yields upside down, the Dow rebounding strongly, gold prices may adjust strong as well, even below $1500.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and a slower outlook for global growth today. US treasury yields are upside down again, with the Dow down over 500 points last night. Of course, if U.S. data isn't as weak as market expectations today, or if the federal reserve says it will cut rates next month. It is more likely that the U.S. faces a recession and that the President's comments on improving relations with China will likely lift the Dow. Technically, the Dow broke through 25860, down to adjust the wave of 25640 support, as low as 25395 yesterday. The Dow could get a bullish today if U.S. economic data isn't as weak as market expectations, U.S. - China relations well, or the federal reserve considers cutting interest rates.
10250 / 10500 resistance
9750 / 9550 support
As the trade war between China and US cool down. Decreasing the crypto currencies demands. However, markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and a slower outlook for global growth today. US treasury yields are upside down again, Fed may cut interest rates again. It probably a excuse to purchase crypto currencies for against any risks. Recently here we mentioned, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Also, here recommend check out the trends of gold price and the bitcoin price with same direction.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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