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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 22
Personal opinions today:
The FOMC minutes showing that the Fed's rate cut in July did not signal a recession and that the cycle of rate cuts had begun. The minutes showed the U.S. economy and inflation are expanding, and Fed officials decided to cut interest rates to avoid trade tensions and economic slowdown and to protect the momentum of the U.S. economic cycle. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that he would not consider raising interest rates until U.S. inflation rose above 2 per cent. So Fed’s policy continues to be dovish, with the Dow just hit to 26,323, gold just reached $1,507 and crude oil at $57. The market still worries about trade talks between the U.S. and China, declines in US manufacturing PMI readings in Europe and the U.S. and the upcoming meeting in Jackson hole, limited Dow gains. USD and gold price maintained strong.
In European trading today, France, Germany and the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. U.K. CBI retail sales for August. More importantly, the European central bank released the minutes. After Europe session, U.S. jobless claims, the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August and the US leading index for July.
[Important financial data and events]
15:15 French manufacturing PMI for August
15:30 German manufacturing PMI for August
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for August
18:00 CBI retail sales differential for August in the UK
19:30 European central bank minutes
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims last week
20:30 Canada wholesale sales rate in June
21:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August
22:00 US conference board leading index in July
France, Germany and the Eurozone released preliminary manufacturing PMI data for August today, and more importantly, the European central bank minutes. The minutes are expected to provide the interest to show ECB interest rate decision. For now, the EURUSD remains stuck at 1.1105 resistance. Technically, recommended support at 1.1075 and 1.1060 and resistance at 1.1105 and 1.1120. Only today must pay attention to the Eurozone preliminary manufacturing PMI for August, the European central bank minutes. Then there are focussing the U.S. jobless claims last week and the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. It is recommended to pay attention to the repeated fluctuations of the Euro. If the EURUSD breaks through the support of 1.1060, it may test the level of 1.1030 or below. Please strictly control the risk.
There is more uncertainty about Brexit, and the continuing dispute between the EU and the UK is more likely to hurt the pound than limit its rise. After the federal reserve released the minutes, markets concerned that the European central bank minutes showed the monetary policy. First up today, the market is waiting the U.S. jobless claims and the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. The suggestion pays attention to the fluctuation, the strict control risk. If the pound does not break through 1.2200, then recommendation looks down 1.2065 support.
After the Reserve bank of Australia cut interest rates twice, some Australian economic data maintained growth, the fed released dovish remarks, the Australian dollar rose. Hopefully, the US and China maintained trade relations good, bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. We'll look today at U.S. jobless claims last week and the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. Technically, the Australian dollar focus on the 0.6785 resistance. If breakthrough this resistance, expect to explore the critical resistance of 0.6815. Investors in the New Zealand dollar can look to the Australian dollar.
The Dow kept rising as the fed released minutes, releasing dovish comments, while the dollar traded near 106.65 against the yen, following the Dow and Nikkei. Watch for U.S. jobless claims last week and the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August tonight, watch the Dow and Nikkei trends. Ahead of the US data, view the European Central Bank minutes, watching the dollar against the yen in the short term. Technically, look for USDJPY resistance to 106.65 and 106.80. Whether the USDJPY can break through the resistance, depends on the Dow and Nikkei.
We'll look today at U.S. jobless claims last week and the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. Meanwhile, Canada reported monthly wholesale sales for June. Two data performances can affect the performance of the Canadian dollar. Technically, we are keeping a wait-and-see resistance of 1.3330 and 1.3345, and pay attention to 1.3275 and 1.3260 below. Besides, it is recommended to keep an eye on the price of crude oil, which will catch the trend of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
U.S. API and EIA inventories fell, and crude prices rose. Crude oil prices fell after the FOMC minutes did not indicate that the rate cut cycle had begun and suggested the Fed might not need to cut rates in September. The fundamentals are likely to limit the rise in crude oil prices, with resistance at 56.60 and significant resistance at 57.10. We'll look today at U.S. jobless claims last week and the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. Any US data showed weakness; it could increase the risk of a fall in crude oil prices.
The FOMC minutes did not indicate a September rate cut and the Dow rose, indirectly affecting gold prices fell. If the Dow continues to rise, gold prices could downward. The key is likely to be U.S. jobless claims last week and the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. A lower-than-expected reading could bullish the gold prices. Technically, the gold price is worth watching at $1,494 support. If the price of gold rises, it will see a resistance of $1509 and $1513.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The Dow was likely to adjust after FOMC minutes. The minutes showed there was little chance to do a rate cut in the next FOMC meeting. Today, we have to check out the latest U.S. jobless claims and the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. Also watching the US’s corporate earnings report and related trade talks between the US and China. Technically, the Dow is expected 26325 as significant resistance. The lower support bits are 26060 and 25975, respectively.
9800 /10050 resistance
9500 / 9250 support
FOMC minutes showed there was little chance to do a rate cut in the next FOMC meeting. It perhaps an excuse to bearish cryptocurrencies, bitcoin price fell sharply. Today, we have to check out the latest U.S. jobless claims and the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August. Also watching the US’s corporate earnings report and related trade talks between the US and China. If any data fail to meet in line, Dow fall or lousy news about trade talks, it could butcher the bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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