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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 30
Personal opinions today:
It is reported that the United States and China held a conference call on trade, US Q2 real GDP in line. These news heated up investment market, with the dollar and U.S. stocks rising and kinds of safe-haven assets such as the yen, Swiss franc and gold price falling. The above factors, consistent with yesterday's analysis. Crude oil prices closed at their highest level in more than two weeks after news of a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories and a trade call between US and China. In Oil market, the market is worried about the impact of typhoon on in US, affecting oil supplies.
[Important financial data and events]
07:30 Japan unemployment rate in July
14:00 UK Nationwide monthly house price index for August
14:45 France CPI in August
15:00 Switzerland's economic leading indicator for August
16:30 UK Bank of England mortgage lending in July
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate for July
17:00 Eurozone CPI for August
20:30 US the core PCE price index of the United States in July
20:30 Canada GDP in June
21:45 Chicago PMI for August
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for August
Today suggestion :
The U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was slower than the previous quarter, but outperform than the Eurozone and Germany. Meanwhile, factors such as Eurozone consumer confidence index and German CPl drop from the previous month weighed on the Euro, affecting the short-term volatility. The next European central bank president said the ECB still has room to cut interest rates, which is also bad for the euro. Last night the euro was as low as around 1.1040. Technically, EURUSD resistance is 1.1110 and 1.1135, adjusted to 1.1070 and 1.1085, it is still possible to continue to fall. Target support between 1.1040 and 1.1025. It is worth noting today that the Eurozone unemployment rate for July and CPI for August. The evening was dominated by a slew of U.S. inflation data, with a special focus on Michigan consumer confidence index for August.
The British prime minister letter to the queen asking for an extension of the parliamentary session to try to prevent a hard Brexit at the end of October. But the news touched off opposition MPS and the prime minister could face impeachment. Last night, the United States reported revised second-quarter real GDP figures in line with expectations, the European central bank was talking about cutting interest rates, and there was uncertainty about Britain's ability to reach a deal to leave the European Union. The news was bearish for British pound, which fell below 1.2190. It is worth noting today that the Eurozone unemployment rate for July and the initial annual rate of CPI for August. The evening was dominated by a slew of U.S. inflation data, with a special focus on the Michigan consumer confidence index for August. The above data indirectly affect the pound!
The U.S. dollar rose and the Australian dollar fell as second-quarter real GDP revisions were in line with market expectations. Starting from this Sunday, the US trade department is going to ask for higher import tariffs on Chinese goods, which is indirectly hurting the Australian economy and affecting the aussie dollar. Believe that the escalation of trade war, the Australian dollar lack of reasons to rise. The Australian dollar is expected to continue its downward trend. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the Australian dollar. Technically, the recommendation is to focus on the 0.6700 and 0.6685 support levels, with the Australian dollar expected to consolidate in this range.
Japan unemployment rate improved, beating market expectations, and the Nikkei stock also did well. But with an escalating trade war between China and the United States looming, the yen could rise as a safe-haven asset amid concerns about a bearish investment climate. Admittedly, the USDJPY trend generally follow the Dow and Nikkei trend mainly. Market information is changing, if a new round of trade war escalation, it may lead the global stock market decline, the USDJPY may follow the fall. It is recommended to keep watching the Dow and Nikkei to determine the direction of USDJPY trading.
Crude oil prices have been boosted by a sharp drop in U.S. API inventories, a typhoon in the United States and a trade call between China and the United States. Canada's current account deficit improved in the second quarter and is expected to report a positive reading on Q2 GDP today, also supporting the Canadian dollar. But Q2 U.S. real GDP results were in line with expectations, and the dollar's strength limited the rise of the Canadian dollar. The evening was dominated by a slew of U.S. inflation data, with a special focus on the Michigan consumer confidence index for August. The above data indirectly affect the Canadian dollar!
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices have rebounded again after the U.S. API and EIA inventories fell sharply and the impact of a typhoon on U.S. crude oil supplies. That, along with the fact that U.S. real GDP was in line with market expectations, also bullish oil prices. But it must be noted that the new round of trade tariffs between China and the United States escalated on Sunday, affecting the market demand for crude oil. A goodwill move by Washington to talk to Iran about easing sanctions could boost supplies and depress prices. Technically, crude oil is in the $56.50 and $57.05 resistance range, and technically, there is a lot of resistance. Watch for crude oil prices to adjust downward before hitting $57.
Yesterday this analysis mentions, the US Q2 real GDP revision is higher than market expectations, Treasury yields back in line, the Dow is expected to rebound, break through 26060 points resistance, gold prices have the opportunity to deep adjustment. While U.S. GDP was only in line with expectations, which, along with other good news, lifted the Dow higher and gold prices adjusted deeply. For now, keep an eye on Dow futures and catch gold prices. This evening was dominated by a slew of U.S. inflation data, with a special focus on the Michigan consumer confidence index for August. These data directly affects the Dow, indirectly affects the gold price!
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The new trade tariffs between China and the United States began on Sunday, should affected the investment sentiment. Last night, the United States reported revised second-quarter real GDP figures in line with expectations, and the trade ministry of China and the United States held talks to boost the investment climate. Watch out for a number of U.S. inflation data tonight, with a special focus on the Michigan consumer confidence index for August. In addition, the Dow could continue to rise if the trade escalation between China and the U.S. eases. Technically, the Dow broke through 25980, while resistance also broke through 26250, hitting near its early August high of 26400. If the bounce wave is used, the upper resistance is 26535 and 26800 respectively.
9750 /9950 resistance
9250 / 9020 support
If trade tensions between the US and China continue, could bullish the bitcoin price and followed the gold price rose. However, it seems cool down, the bitcoin price could fall a bit. Technically, it supports may looking at 9250 and 9020. The U.S. release US Q2 real GDP revised figures in line. Recommend looking at Michigan consumer sentiment index today. That could affected the FOMC monetary policy decision and the bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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