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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 6
Personal opinions today:
Yesterday, the market focused on U.S. ADP payroll in August, which exceeded expectations. After the results were released, markets were expecting a positive in U.S. non-farm payrolls for August today. The Dow was up more than 300 points last night. U.S. unemployment rate fell, and average wages rise expected. Markets expect the Fed holds rate cut and unchanged. The dollar index rose, limiting gains in European currencies. Crude oil futures rose, hit $57. Gold prices tumbled, dropping 380 pips last night, from $1,545 to $1,507. It was the most significant drop in nearly a month.
In European trading hours today, the market is looking at the Q2 Eurozone employment rate and GDP rate revisions, the direct impact on the euro, the indirect impact on the British pound and the Swiss franc. If the results are only as expected or lower than expected, European currencies could fall. The US non-farm payrolls and average wages looking good, bullish the dollar, gold prices have room to fall, crude oil prices are likely to test high. The yen could fall further if strong U.S. jobs data, improved U.S. - China relations and hopes for progress well in trade talks this month, bullish Dow futures and driving global stocks such Asian stocks well. Note the volatility in the market during today's non-farm payrolls data, followed by remarks by Fed chairman Powell speech. The content may produce market fluctuation again, please attention!
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
14:00 German industrial output in July *
14:45 French trade account for July *
15:30 U.K. Halifax's house price index in August *
17:00 Eurozone employment rate for the Q2 **
17:00 Eurozone GDP revision in Q2 **
20:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate ***
00:30 Fed chairman Powell speaks
Today suggestion :
U.S. ADP payrolls topped market expectations in August, while the dollar ended its decline and the euro fell. After hitting a 20-day average resistance yesterday, the euro reversed course with the release of U.S. jobs data, in line with this analysis. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise in August, and average wages will increase if payrolls exceed 200,000. The wider the range, the stronger the dollar and the opportunity for the euro to extend losses. But it's worth noting that after the U.S. employment data, federal reserve chairman Powell made a speech. The euro could breakthrough 1.0985 support if the Fed chairman says there is a good chance it will keep rates on hold.
The risk of a hard Brexit is cooling, indirectly boosting the pound. Yesterday's US ADP payroll showed a rebound of 111.6 % of the Fibonacci, up from a fall in August, to 1.2353. But the U.S. dollar ended its slide and pound limited the gains after U.S. ADP payrolls exceeded market expectations in August. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise in August, and average wages will increase if payrolls exceed 200,000. The dollar is likely to strengthen against the pound as the federal reserve holds interest rates steady. Today, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data released in August, also attention to the federal reserve chairman Powell speech. Pound could breakthrough 1.2220 support if the fed chairman stresses the odds of keeping rates on hold.
Australian dollar to dollar
U.S. ADP payroll for August showed an increase, which is directly related to expectations for non-farm payrolls data tonight. The US dollar rose, limiting the Australian dollar's gains against the greenback. The market is now expecting goodwill from the US President and Chinese officials to help improve the trade relations and support the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar maintained above 0.6805, is expected to continue the upward trend of the Australian dollar, reference resistance 0.6820 and 0.6840, the pattern of the New Zealand dollar is to follow the pattern of the Australian dollar. Note that today's non-farm payrolls data show a rise of more than 220,000. There is a good chance that the Fed chairman will insist on holding rates steady. These factors may indirectly affect the Australian dollar fall.
Dow futures and Nikkei futures lead the USDJPY. Last night, the US ADP payroll very well, led the Dow and the global stock market rise, indirect impact of the USDJPY rose to 107 levels. Technically, if Dow futures and Nikkei continue to rise, resistance level maybe reaches to 107.35 and 107.60 resistance. If Dow and Nikkei futures their declines believe the USDJPY follows.
A rebound in crude oil prices helped lift the Canadian dollar on strong U.S. ADP payroll. But the dollar rebounded, limiting the Canadian dollar's gains. Technically, after the U.S. dollar dipped against the Canadian dollar to 1.3200, if the rise in the price of crude oil narrowed, it would indirectly affect the strength of the Canadian dollar. Take note today of U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August. If crude oil prices stop rising after the data, the USDCAD rose.
US crude oil futures
The federal reserve has released its beige book on economic conditions, easing recession fears in the United States. U.S. August ADP payroll beat market expectations, boosting crude prices. Crude oil prices broke 56.60 resistance and hit 57.65 last night. Technically, the upper resistance level extends to the reference position of 57.75, which can be used as a reference. If the Fed chairman's emphasis on keeping interested rates on hold could limit the rise in oil prices and reverse course. Keep watching the Fed chairman announcement tonight.
U.S. ADP payroll beat market expectations, and gold prices fell in anticipation of the federal reserve's interest rate cut. Gold price is likely to test $1,506 today ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls and average wages for August. If the non-farm payroll is only in line with 190,000, the end of the dollar strong, technical gold prices may rebound. Believe the price of gold fluctuates during the US trading session today. That's because the Fed chairman is still speaking after the U.S. non-farm payroll. The overall gold price, the significant support levels are $1500 and $1493, please take note.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The trade tensions between China and the United States eased, and investment sentiment improved. Dow futures rebounded after strong U.S. jobs data. But those factors had already contributed to the gains in Dow futures last night. U.S. non-farm payrolls data were strong today, but the Fed chairman's speech is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, lowering the investment climate. After the Fed chairman's speech, maybe the Dow narrowed its gains and dipped below its advisory support level.
10720 /10860 resistance
10350 / 10050 support
We mentioned here yesterday, If trade tensions, bullish the gold price and cryptocurrencies demand. The bitcoin price followed the gold price rose. Yesterday the trade tensions cooled with China officials intended to accept US offers. Besides, the US ADP payroll good and over-expectation. That could affect the FOMC monetary policy decision; it could hold the interest rate and could let the bitcoin price fall. Please keep on eyes today, the US non-farm payroll. If the US job data lower than expected, bullish bitcoin price.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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