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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 17
Personal opinions today:
The Australian dollar was bearish today as the reserve bank of Australia released minutes of its September monetary policy meeting, noting any hint that it was considering easing monetary policy. In European trading, watch for the ZEW economic sentiment index for September in Germany and the Eurozone. U.S. industrial and manufacturing output in August was expected to rise from a month earlier in the trading session to see if they beat expectations. The US will see a net capital inflow tomorrow in July.
On Thursday the world's four biggest central banks, the Fed, Japan, Switzerland and the UK, announced their interest rates. Markets are more focused on the Fed's interest rate cut and whether the bank of Japan will expand its easy money policy in anticipation of a consumption tax hike in October. The dollar index rose from 97 as markets priced in a 25 basis point cut in Fed interest rates. The dollar was supported by a cut in U.S. interest-rate futures, with the Euro topping 1.10 and other European and commodity currencies falling. Gold price is trading below $1,500.
An attack on the Saudi oil supply system has affected primary global crude supplies. The price of October oil futures rose last night to $63. The market is looking at U.S. API crude oil inventories tomorrow.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
09:30 RBA minutes ***
17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index **
20:30 Canada new manufacturing orders **
21:15 US industrial output for August **
22:00 US NAHB housing market index *
Next day 02:00 US net capital inflows in July
Next day 04:30 US API crude inventories ***
Today suggestion :
European central bank cut interest rates at a low rate, the quantitative easing plan did not take effect in time, and the economic recovery timetable was delayed. The Euro finally broke through support; technical trend Euro breakthrough 20-day and 10-day moving average 1.1052 and 1.1040 support. The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the Eurozone was weak in September, U.S. industrial and manufacturing output rose, the dollar strengthened, and the Euro had an opportunity to maintain its downward trend.
Pound against dollar
The market is focused on the fed and the Bank of England. The former market has already priced in a quarter-point cut. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged but failed to make progress on Brexit in the face of expected strong U.S. economic data, weighing on sterling. Further downside risks to pound, with 1.2500 becoming a significant headwind. Yesterday, it pointed out that if the resistance to 1.2505 or 1.2525 fails to breakthrough, keep an eye out for pound to test support at 1.2420 and 1.2385 before the monetary policy decision. Currently, the resistance level is expected to be lowered to see if the support level of 1.2385 will breakthrough and then try 1.2355 or below.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The market is waiting to see if the RBA minutes, it will provide any monetary policy trends. The market expects the US data performance to increase today, economic growth, and the US dollar performance is stronger, indirectly against the Australian dollar, limit the rise of the Australian dollar, more likely to test the support level. It is believed that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend and pace of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
Dollar to yen
The dollar rose as markets anticipated rise in US data and expectations of a rate cut by the federal reserve cooled. Dow and Nikkei futures rebounded from lows, while the dollar followed the yen. If the Nikkei index futures and Dow futures rise further, indirectly benefit the dollar against the yen trend. Technically, however, the USDJPY 108.25 and 108.40 resistance is significant; if not break, the short term may test 107.65 support.
US dollar to Canadian dollar
Higher crude oil futures prices are expected to benefit the Canadian dollar indirectly. But existing home prices in Canada fell more than expected, bearish for the Canadian dollar. The outlook for growth in the U.S. and weak data in Canada today is likely to be harmful to the Canadian dollar. If the oil futures price, bearish Canadian dollar. Look for short-term support at 1.3200 and 1.3175. We recommend resistance of 1.3255 and 1.3270.
US crude futures
Crude oil futures prices rose after the Saudi oil supply system was attacked, with supplies of key crude falling sharply by 5.2m barrels a day. Oil futures prices are expected to stabilize slowly after the U.S. President opened up strategic oil reserves and Saudi Arabia resumed standard supplies as soon as a week later. Oil prices have limited upside. Technically, it is expected to support the lower level of 60.70 and 58.65 support crude oil futures prices. Keep an eye on the important resistance of 63.25. Without a breakthrough, there is a downside risk to crude oil prices.
This week's interest rate cut by the federal reserve is a sure bet, and BoJ are likely to follow suit, potentially bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise before the meeting, the gold price will follow. U.S. economic data showed growth today, which may limit gold prices. After that, the market digested the good news of the US data growth and expected gold prices also rise. Technically, gold's critical support level is $1,482, and without a breakthrough, gold's upward trend remains unchanged.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures were expected to have a chance to pare gains as the market watches for a day of U.S. economic data. A strong U.S. data could bullish Dow futures, test the resistance to 27205 and 27305.
10550 /10950 resistance
10150 / 9850 support
The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision this Thursday, and the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would upward. If Dow future rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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