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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 20
Personal opinions today:
The world's four major Central Banks, the federal reserve, BoJ, Bank of Switzerland and Bank of England, announced the results of interest rate hikes yesterday. Fed Chairman Powell said at a news conference that the fed would consider cutting interest rates if needed, but did not signal the start of a rate-cutting cycle. The Banks of Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom kept interest rates unchanged, while currencies rose. Today, the market is focused on the China and US vice-minister trade consultation and expects progress to step forward for the high-level consultation in October, boost the investment climate and bring positive development to the economy in the fourth quarter.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
07:30 August national core CPl ***
09:30 China central bank announces lending market rate ***
14:00 German PPI in August **
20:30 Canada July retail sales ***
22:00 Eurozone consumer confidence for September **
After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, no further rate cuts were indicated, and the dollar rebounded against the Euro. Germany producer price index (PPI) for August is in focus today. Market expectations for a fall from its previous level could be bearish for the Euro if it falls below -0.2%. In U.S. trading hours, Eurozone consumer confidence for September was a concern. If the results are better than expected, it could be bullish Euro. Technical to moves, Euro below 20-hour and 10-hour moving averages, limited to 1.1050 resistance. Adjusted wave 50% is 1.1015, followed by 1.0995 and 1.0975, respectively.
Pound against dollar
The federal reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the Bank of England committee unanimously left rates unchanged, with gains for pound. The European commission's Brexit negotiations leader he said, they will be resolved. The good news helped the pound. It hit a two-month high near 1.2560 resistance. Markets are watching to see if the British prime minister faces impeachment if parliament reconvenes and if parliament can block the passage of the Brexit deadline, which could limit pound's gains.
Australian dollar against US dollar
Fed after the interest rate decision, and no further interest rate reduction intention, the US dollar rose, bearish Australian dollar. The federal reserve did not signal the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. The New Zealand dollar follows the Australian dollar. Note that the Australian and New Zealand dollars fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates without expanding quantitative easing policy, and Japan's CPI fell slightly in line with market expectations in August, with a bullish the yen. After the Bank of Japan interest rate decision, the governor of the Bank of Japan press conference, did not indicate any policy adjustment, also bullish the yen as well. But Nikkei futures adjustment from high, the dollar against the yen followed the trend go down. After the Bank of Japan meeting, the dollar against the yen test 108.40 resistance failed, the trend correction down to 107.80. Technically, the dollar followed the Dow futures trends, short-term we note at 108.40 resistance and 107.65 support.
U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
Canada's August CPI was in line with market expectations, as markets priced in weak Canada data and lifted the Canadian dollar on higher crude oil prices. Take note of what the U.S. President and federal reserve officials speaks, of the progress of the China and US trade talks at the vice-minister level, which indirectly affected the price of crude oil and the direction of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Saudi crude oil supply system has been attacked; some crude oil supply is gradually restored. Crude oil futures also fell as U.S. API crude inventories rose. Crude oil futures supply is expected to stabilize slowly, and fundamentals limit the upside for crude oil prices, with opportunities to fall. Technically, 60.30 is a significant resistance. F break the resistance, it could bullish crude oil futures.
The Fed cut rates in line with expectations and later said it was not considering cutting rates at its next meeting. Central Banks in Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom left interest rates unchanged, while Japan and the British did not extend their easing policies to limit the rise in gold prices. Right now, if Dow futures rise, gold could fall. With no U.S. economic data release today, gold could trade in a range trading, but keep an eye on the U.S. President's comments. Technical in short term, the gold price, important support level of $1492, if there is no breakthrough support level, gold price rally is still unchanged.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The market is watching the vice-minister-level talks between China and the United States, which indirectly affected the investment sentiment, Dow futures limited gains. Market expectations of the federal reserve incoming meeting, the space to cut interest rates is limited. Until the trade war is resolved, only the Fed can lower interest rates further, which could affect bullish Dow futures and test resistance. Otherwise, watch for downside risks to Dow futures.
10550 /10950 resistance
10150 / 9850 support
The FOMC cut rate in line, and monetary policy remained, the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would upward. Because the market is going to forecast the US GDP that releases next Thursday. If Dow future keeps rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down first.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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