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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 26
Personal opinions today:
The market waits and sees the real US GDP in Q2 final release today, and durable goods orders and Michigan consumer confidence index released tomorrow. But last night, the U.S. President at a United Nations meeting said that a trade deal with China would be reached soon, boosting investment sentiment and bullish Dow futures and the dollar rose. Dow futures rebounded over 100 points, and gold price fell $28 to as low as $1,501. The price of silver and the yen and other major currencies fell against the dollar. Crude oil futures rose after the news helped offset falling demand for the commodity.
On the data front, the final quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP in the Q2, the final quarterly rate of core PCE price index and the number of U.S. jobless claims last week are expected to be weak, which may be bearish for the dollar. The monthly rate of contract sales of existing U.S. homes in August is expected to be more than offset by a positive dollar reading. European central bank President Mario Draghi spoke during U.S. trading hours. It is worth noting that Draghi's remarks, whether the content of the ECB's future monetary policy, affect the trend of the Euro. If the dovish speech, the euro could come downward, or gold could make bullish.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
14:00 Germany October Gfk consumer confidence index **
20:30 U.S. real GDP final in Q2 ***
20:30 U.S. core PCE price index in Q2 **
20:30 U.S. jobless claims last week
20.30 U.S. real personal consumption expenditure Q2 ***
21:30 ECB President Mario Draghi speech
22:00 U.S. existing homes sales **
22:00 Fed Bullard speaks *
Euro to dollar
German October Gfk consumer confidence index and ECB President Mario Draghi speech today, may affect the Euro volatility. But it's interesting to see if the U.S. data was weak today. If U.S. GDP and other economic data fall short of market expectations and technical moves, the Euro remains uncertain, with significant headwinds limited to 1.1050 and 1.1070. After the breakthrough of 1.0970 significant support bit, the next important support bit is 1.0925.
Pound to dollar
The British court ruled that the prime minister's request for parliament to adjourn was unconstitutional and parliament could resume. The British prime minister is facing impeachment by MPS and is more likely to call a fresh general election to block talks with the EU with only a month to go. In the face of these uncertainties, continue to be bearish for pound, looking at the situation in the UK, the US economy continues to grow, the pound has a chance to test the 1.22 level. First support level, reference 1.2305 support, resistance level 1.2415.
Australian dollar to US dollar
New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates and was flat, in line with expectations that the New Zealand dollar had rebounded. Next week, the reserve bank of Australia interest rate, the central bank has the opportunity to cut interest rates, negative Australian and New Zealand dollar. The trade war has been spurred by the US President's remarks, boosting the investment climate. However, China did not say that the trade war situation has not wholly improved; It is believe that bearish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The U.S. President said a US-China trade deal would soon be reached, boosting Dow and Nikkei futures, while the dollar continued to rebound against the yen. Break 107.35 resistance level, challenge 107.85 resistance. But with U.S. GDP today and expected weak U.S. economic data over the next two days, the Dow's rally could end, and the dollar could fall against the yen. Technical may drop 107.35 and 107.15 support.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
A rise in crude oil prices helped support the Canadian dollar. The market is looking for progress in the trade minister talks, indirectly supporting the increase in crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the initial target is 1.3225 and 1.3205. But at present, the oil supply and demand situation is not clear, and the crude oil price falls the momentum, proposes the U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar 1.3225 and 1.3205 support, looks above 1.3290 or 1.3310 resistance
US crude oil futures
Crude oil futures rose after the US President said a trade deal with China would be reached soon. Beyond politics and progress in trade talks, crude oil prices could be bullish. However, the market predicts the U.S. economic data is weak today and tomorrow, crude oil prices will be bearish. The final U.S. Q2 GDP and other data are expected today. Expect weak U.S. Durable goods orders and Michigan consumer confidence data tomorrow, keeping an eye on downside risks to crude oil prices.
Gold prices fell as the Dow future rebounded on comments from the US President that trade relations were improving. But the UK faces the risk of a Brexit, a slowdown in US economic data today, comments from the European central bank President and downside threats to Dow futures could help bullish gold prices. Technically, the gold price in short-term, important support level US1501; if the trend did not break the support level, the gold price rise is still unchanged. Technical breakthrough US1520 and US1522 resistance range, note any news change investment sentiment, gold price correction risk. More attention to the Dow futures trend and gold price reversal relationship.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The US President's comments lifted morale ahead of next week's trade talks between the U.S. and China, indirectly lifting sentiment in Dow futures, which rebounded over 100 points last night. The market is looking ahead to next week's minister meeting, anticipating any weak U.S. economic data today and tomorrow, and an opportunity for Dow futures to fall. With crucial U.S. data out, the final reading on Q2 GDP, Durable goods orders and the Michigan consumer confidence index, keep in mind that Dow futures still have downside risks. Look out for 26830 and 26690 support.
9550 /10250 resistance
8250 / 7900 support
Technically, US7900 support is significant support. If the bitcoin fails to support, it will test US7000 to US6500 support.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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