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COVID-19 pandemic can be worse than 2008 financial crisis, IFO. Italy lethal cases more than double Hubei. Euro PMI record low. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

Mar 26 2020, 01:57 PM (+06) |

IFO Institute President Clemens Fuest has mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg that the outcome of the coronavirus pandemic is unknown, full of uncertainty and may possibly be worse than the 2008 financial crisis. 

In Italy, the number of infected is increasing nearing 70K and lethal cases have surpassed by more than double the number in Hubei China, the number is nearing 7K. Italian government have increased the fine for people that violate the coronavirus lockdown to 3K euros. 

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI was released at a record low of 31.4 vs 38.8 forecast and 51.6 previous fact.

The United Kingdom parliament will close to help contain the spread of the virus just as they were preparing for Easter break. After a sunny weekend where UK citizens continued to gather in crowds, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced to take new measures to help curb the spread of the virus by closing all non-essential stores including clothing and electronic. Places of worship will be closed and wedding will be cancelled amongst other things. UK citizens now have to abide by rules as to who and when can leave their homes limiting to buying necessities as infrequently as possible, one exercise daily alone or with household members, medical needs and travel to and from work only if the job can’t be performed from home. The situation will be re-evaluated in 3 weeks’ time. U.K. Composite PMI was also released at a staggering 37.1 vs 45.1 forecast and 53.0 previous fact. 

In the United States, President Donald Trump want to reopen the economy by Easter on April 12th if not sooner, stating that although the coronavirus is bad, if the economy falls into recession or even a depression even more lives will be lost. This comes at a time as more and more states go on lockdown. The number of infected in the US is more than 55K, death toll 802. 

United States Dollar Index (DXY) continues its ascend down, trading around 101.22.

Gold 1622.685 per troy ounce

Brent 27.07 per barrel

Crude 24.31 per barrel 

EUR/USD on a Daily TF continues its advance up, currently trading around 1.08. MACD bearish histogram has decreased. Parabolic SAR pointing down near 23.6 Fibo. Ichimoku cloud is bearish, resistance coincides with 13EMA in the vicinity of 1.09170-1.09306. 

Resistance: R1 1.08500, R2 1.09100, R3 1.10.

Support: S1 1.07500, S2 1.07, S3 1.06527. 


GBP/USD on a Daily TF continues to trade bullish. 9EMA is acting as resistance around 1.19. MACD bearish histogram has decreased. Parabolic SAR is pointing down around 1.22720 resistance. 

Resistance: R1 13EMA 1.20500, R2 1.22720, R3 1.25.

Support: S1 1.17, S2 1.16, S2 1.15. 

USD/JPY on a Daily TF continues to trade in a bullish flat around 111.275. We are seeing 4 days of rejection of lower prices which coincide with local trend line up as support from the beginning of March 2020. 13EMA has intersected 200EMA up. 48EMA is approaching 200EMA for a cross up as well. MACD bullish flat. Parabolic SAR is pointing up around 105.855 support. 

Resistance: R1 112, R2 112.610, R3 113.

Support: S1 110.175, S2 109.577, S3 108.888 (200EMA).

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