The primary pair of the FX market - EUR / USD spent the first day of the week in a very limited range, showing a tendency to continue downward dynamics, despite technical factors —oversold market and strong support levels.
The day off in the United States made significant adjustments to the trading session on Monday, the trading volume was light, which affected the market volatility. At the same time, no important macroeconomic statistics were published in the USA and Europe.
However, there have been several important news events of a fundamental nature, and if we mentioned quite a lot about Chinese economic statistics, the second news event is of considerable interest. It is about the speech of the IMF Managing Director we are talking about, Christine Lagarde. To make things short - IMF once again lowered its forecast for the growth rate of the global economy down to 3.5%. IMF forecasts adjustment was primarily associated with a significant slowdown in economic activity in Europe., Germany’s GDP growth forecast was lowered by 0.6 bp. due to weak consumption and industrial production. Italy GDP outlook was also revised downwards by 0.4 bp. due to weak domestic demand and high cost of government borrowing. France's GDP forecast was lowered by 0.1 bp because of the ongoing protests and impact for economy.
No surprise that on this fundamental background and economical expectations, investors continue to sell the European currency despite technical factors. European regulator will eventually be obliged to change its monetary policy as well amid worse economic background. Traders might put this in market levels already now.
Brexit uncertainty continues to exert significant pressure on European currency. On Monday Theresa Mae essentially did not provide anything new about how the United Kingdom intends to leave the EU in her new action plan. The likelihood of the implementation of the “tough” Brexit scenario remains very high.
Today, we will focus on the data from the ZEW Institute in Germany. According to all published indicators, we can expect a decrease in numbers, which may further increase the pressure on the EUR / USD pair.