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EUR / USD has adjusted to 3 month lows

Oct 26 2018, 02:15 PM (+06) | Fortfs.com

Yesterday weak European statistic data,  stronger USD dollar and the continuing strong discrepancy between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed continued to exert pressure on the EUR / USD pair which ended yesterday's trading with a -0.25% result.

On Thursday the day began with a regular batch of weak statistics from Germany, where there was a decrease in the IFO business climate indices, business expectations and assessment of the current situation, but since traders expected more important news from ECB, the European currency continued to trade steadily.

However, ECB decision did not surprise the markets and in fact did not have a special impact on trading. The regulator confirmed the plans to complete the asset repurchase program in December of the current year, noting that one should expect the start of the process of changing interest rates no earlier than the autumn of 2019.

Mario Draghi speech had a negative impact on the European currency. As soon as ECB heads pointed to rising risks due to the conflict situation around the Italian budget and the Brexit uncertainty, investors began to quickly get rid of the European currency by setting a new minimum in more than 2 months of trading.

Today, trading session is so far pretty quiet. The dollar is trading with a moderate decline, while waiting for important data on GDP for the third quarter, providing opportunities for a corrective recovery of the EUR / USD pair. It should be noted that the probability of development of correction for this instrument is quite high. Today, Europe does not publish important economic data that could put pressure on the euro, and all the negative factors were played by the market earlier.

The dollar has also exhausted all short-term growth reserves and is now awaiting new drivers. Preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter are very well suited for this role, but the problem is that experts predict weaker data compared to the second quarter, a 3.3% increase against 4.2% earlier and any data below expectations could trigger wave of sales of US currency.

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