The EUR / USD pair maintains a downward vector. Weak economic statistics of the EU and signals from the ECB to lower rates and resume the QE program continue to exert pressure on the European currency. An additional pressure factor for the euro remains the high uncertainty associated with Brexit.
The demand for the US currency remains high, despite the fact that the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bp this week. The reason for this market reaction is that, firstly, this decision is almost completely taken into account in the current price. Secondly, statistics still indicate a fairly good state of the US economy. Third, the Fed’s policy remains significantly more rigid than that of the ECB and other central banks.
Today there are no important news in the economic calendar of the United States and Europe, so geopolitics news and the situation in the debt market will have a major impact on trading. The likelihood that the US dollar today will maintain its dominant position in the market remains very high.
On the chart, bearish signals still dominate, so the scenario with a decrease in quotations to the 1.1100 area remains relevant. The further price movement vector will depend on the market reaction to the retest level of 1.1100.
· Resistance levels: 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240.
· Levels of support: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1000.
The main scenario - a decline to 1.1080.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1155 and growth to 1.1200.
The fundamental background on the market remains negative. The chart is dominated by bearish signals. Preference is given to sales, which can be viewed from the level 1.1155.