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Focus on Trump Speech and RBNZ. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD

Nov 12 2019, 09:33 PM (+06) |

President Donald Trump will be delivering a speech at the Economic Club of New York at 17:00 GMT today. Investors will be hanging on every word, as many things will be discussed. Although the US-China Trade war will be in the focus. Last week’s optimism was quickly reversed by President Donald Trump’s remarks on no agreement on tariff rollback, this speech is likely to be volatile.

EUR/USD on a Daily TF remains in the vicinity of 50% Fibo, and is trading slightly lower than yesterday, at 1.10127. The Bearish MACD histogram has grown. 9EMA crossed 50 EMA down, both EMAs are pointing down, although the Ichimoku Cloud bias is bullish. We may see a further movement down before there is a retracement to the trend line and 200 EMA. The RSI is within the range at 41.16..

Resistance:  R1 38.2% Fibo 1.10647, R2 23.6% Fibo 1.11086, R3 1.11795.
Support: S1 1.10000, S2 1.09733.


GBP/USD on a Daily TF continues to trade within a range between 1.27685-1.29725. Bias is bullish. 50EMA is close to crossing 200EMA up. Sterling is waiting for further election updates. The USD is likely to react to President Donald Trump’s Speech tonight. 

Resistance: R1 1.29418, R2 1.30125, R3 1.30764
Support:  S1 23.6% Fibo 1.27637, S2 38.2% Fibo 1.26098, S3 50% Fibo 1.24854

Tomorrow morning at 07:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases its interest rate decision. The market is expecting (about 60%) a possible rate cut of 0.25%. RBNZ cut rates in August, by an unexpected 50 basis against the forecast of 25bp.

Last week, New Zealand released slightly worse than expected employment numbers. The inflation target QoQ was downgraded to 1.8%. This increases the chance of a rate cut, but we should not forget that trade tensions are hard on NZD as well as they are on the neighboring AUD. They are both sensitive to trade war updates.

NZD/USD on a Daily TF, 9EMA crossed 50EMA down. The MACD bearish histogram is growing. The pair has been trading in a range between 23.6% and 38.2% Fibo levels, and is currently trading around 0.63335.

Resistance: R1 0.63827, R2 38.2% Fibo 0.64279, R3 50% Fibo 0.64972
Support: S1 0.63008, S2 0.62690, S3 0.62416

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