First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- Recall that we weren’t able to word a more or less specific forecast for EUR/USD last week, as the opinions of the experts were split exactly in half: 50% of them voted for the growth of the pair and 50% for its fall. The market literally froze in anticipation of Friday's data on the US labor market; once they were released, however, it reacted to them quite calmly as well. As a result, the pair returned to the August values and completed the week in the zone of the week’s Pivot Point at 1.1733;
- The forecast for GBP/USD has fully come true. The overwhelming majority of experts, with the support of trend indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, sided with the bears, expecting the pair to fall to the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel. The level 1.3040 was named as the target, the pair reached it on Friday, losing about 375 points during the week;
- USD/JPY. 55% of analysts expected a decline in this pair, the remaining 45% expected a growth. As a result, it did not listen to either of them, and completed the week's session exactly where it started: at 112.65;
- The forecast for USD/CHF assumed that it would move in the side channel 0.9585-0.9770 for some time, which was happening for almost the whole week. At the same time, the bulls periodically made attempts to break the upper boundary of this corridor. The most powerful attack was undertaken on Friday on the news from the US, but it was unsuccessful, and it was quite soon that the pair returned to the zone 0.9770-0.9780.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- ‘South and only southwards’ is the viewpoint of 85% of experts, graphical analysis, trend indicators and oscillators on D1 for EUR/USD. Having said that, no serious strengthening of the dollar is expected: the level 1.1660 is called as the main support, the next support is in the zone 1.1600.
After this decline, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, the pair expects a U-turn and a return to the highs of August-September. The resistance levels are 1.1835, and 1.2035, the final target is 1.2090.
As for the technical analysis on H4, according to its readings, the pair may continue to move in a narrow side corridor within the limits of 1.1700-1.1835 for a while. The remaining 15% of experts agree with this point of view;
- Speaking about the future of the GBP/USD, the majority (55%) of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and 2/3 indicators, are still looking to the south. In their opinion, the pair has not yet reached its minimum, located at the level of 1.2770.
As for the remaining experts, they believe that the pair will not be able to break through a strong medium-term support in 1.3000-1.3045. They believe that the pair will use this support to go into a lateral movement. The resistance levels are 1.3125, 1.3150 and 1.3250. About one-third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario, signaling that the pair is oversold;
- USD/JPY has been moving in the side channel 108.00-114.50 since this spring, and is now on its way to its upper border. About 70% of analysts agree with this point of view, as do graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1. The nearest resistance is 113.25.
An alternative point of view is shared by 30% of experts and most of the indicators on H4: they believe that, before continuing northward, the pair should test the local bottom in the zone of 111.75-112.00;
- Experts' opinions about the near future of the USD/CHF are split equally: 50% expect the pair to fall, 50% of them expect it to grow. As for the readings of most indicators and graphical analysis, in their opinion the pair will first try to reach the peak of the previous week at 0.9835, before returning to the support at 0.9770. It would then try to break it and, if successful, would drop to the level of 0.9685.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the bearish sentiment is already supported by 70% of analysts, who expect the pair to fall to a low of 0.9600, or perhaps yet another 100 points lower.
- In conclusion, a couple of words about the main events that can influence the trend directions and the volatility of the pairs under consideration. In the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the US Federal Reserve Protocol on open markets on Wednesday 11 October. Importance should also be given to the publication of data on the US consumer market on Friday, 13 October. As for the Eurozone, the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday, 11 October, is of interest.
Roman Butko, NordFX