Forex News: The Fed hiked the interest rate to <1.50% as it was widely anticipated but the Rate Statement didn’t show a hawkish stance and this allowed the pair to climb. Also, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned uncertainty about inflation in her press conference and this further weakened the US Dollar.
The pair bounced at 1.1735 support and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average with authority but stopped at 1.1825 at the time of writing. We expect this resistance level to be broken and price to head into 1.1875 in the near future. If the pair bounces lower from the current level but still remains above the 50 EMA, the outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move into the next resistance.
The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the release will most likely create increased volatility. Later at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference where he will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the press conference is known to be a strong market mover, so caution is recommended because the impact cannot be anticipated.
At the same time (1:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The impact is usually high and numbers above the forecast 0.6% strengthen the US Dollar.
Similar to the Euro, the Pound capitalized on the Fed rate announcement yesterday and the pair moved to the upside, surpassing the 50 period EMA and making the short-to-medium term outlook bullish.
Downside movement stalled around 1.3320 and price jumped into 1.3410 after the Fed rate announcement and press conference. The bullish momentum is likely to take the pair above the current resistance and closer to 1.3450 – 1.3500. A retracement will follow if the pair reaches these levels but as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, our bias is bullish.
The first release of the day will be the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%. The indicator usually boosts the Pound if it posts readings above forecast and the opposite is true for values below expectations.
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but since no change is anticipated for quite a long while, we expect the event to create only moderate volatility unless surprises happen.