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GBP/CHF: A Good Time to Sell

May 8 2019, 08:12 PM (+06) |

Unemployment rates in Switzerland (seasonally and not seasonally adjusted), which were released on Wednesday, results came in at the 2,4%. The situation in the Swiss labor market looks quite stable.

Picture 1. Unemployment rate s.a.

On Wednesday the Swiss franc started strengthening against the British currency. Even good news from the British housing market (Halifax House Price Index rose) did not help.

Let’s take a short look at the pair and try to define the possible targets for the price.

Technical analysis

On the  1W TF the British pound reached the 200-EMA, which is heading down. Consequently, the global trend is bearish. Also pay attention that there is a resistance line on 1,34000. While the pair was rising, trying to renew maximums – the volume was going down. We think that breaking 1,34000 will be a really hard task for the bulls.


Picture 2. GBP/CHF. 1W chart.

On the lower 1D TF, the pair reached the local trend line, which is heading up – the local trend is bullish. RSI indicator confirmed the reversal signal by returning back from the overbought zone. Parabolic SAR reversed. MACD line is moving down too. If the pair breaks the trend line down we can expect that it will reach the 23,6% Fibo level (1,31459). The next target is 1,29744.

Picture 3. GBP/CHF. 1D chart.

Summary: after getting confirmation signals like the breakthrough of the trend line and the intersection of MACD lines it will be possible to open short positions.   

Fundamental analysis

Crucial news is released on Friday. The British GDP for the first quarter is published at 8-30 a.m. GMT. The forecast is 1,8% (YoY). Taking into consideration that retail sales in Great Britain in January, February and March increased we can expect that the British economy rose.

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