Gold maintains upward momentum against the backdrop of the publication of another batch of weak statistics from the United States and increased fears associated with a slowdown in global economic growth.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US non-manufacturing sector fell to a 3-year low in September. This reinforced concerns about the spreading of the negative trend in the manufacturing sector to other parts of the economy. A number of weak economic data this week strengthened investors' expectations about further easing of the Fed's monetary policy in order to maintain high growth rates. According to CME Group, traders estimate the likelihood of two more rate cuts at 53%, against 39% on Wednesday and only 19% last week. This is a bullish signal for gold.
Today, the American trading session promises to be very hot. Investors are expecting the latest and most important US economic statistics this week - Non-Farm Payrolls. Later, Fed officials Brynard, Bostick, George, Clarida, Quarles and Jerome Powell will speak. Investors will closely monitor their performances in the light of weak statistics from the US presented this week.
On the chart, the price maintains an upward vector. The bulls managed to form a strong support area in the region of 1499.00, from which we can expect further development of the upward movement to 1525.00.
Resistance Levels: 1515.00, 1525.00, 1555.00;
Support Levels: 1499.00, 1485.00, 1475.00.
The main scenario is a correction to 1499.00 and the resumption of upward movement.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of support at 1499.00 and a decline to 1485.00.
A positive fundamental background remains on the market. Bullish signals prevail on the chart. Inside the day, we give preference to longs that are worth looking for near the mark of 1499.00.